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Saying it will take jobs is the marketing line to CEOs - more than you will be left behind.
Except entry level jobs are already getting wiped out.
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The marketing is clearly effecting individual developers, too. There's a mass psychosis happening
I think this is reality. None of our much-promoted AI initiatives have resulted in any ROI. In fact they have cost a pile of cash so far and delivered nothing.
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Can confirm. We don’t know if AI really is about to make programmers who write code by hand obsolete, but we sure as hell fear our competitors will ship features 10x faster than us. What is the logical next step?? Invest lots of money on AI or keep hoping it’s a fad and risk being left in the dust, even if you think that risk is fairly small?
Perhaps stop entering into saturated markets and using AI to try and shortcut your way to the moon? There's no way any LLM code generator can replace a moderately complex system at this point and looking at the rate of progress this hasn't improved recently at all. Getting one to reason about a simple part of a business domain is still quite difficult.
The rate of progress in the last 3 years has been over my expectations. The past year has been increasing a lot. The last 2 months has been insane. No idea how people can say "no improvement".
> Microsoft’s AI CEO is saying AI is going to take everybody’s job. And Sam Altman is saying that AI will wipe out entire categories of jobs. ANd Matt Shumer is saying that AI is currently like Covid in January 2020—as in, “kind of under the radar, but about to kill millions of people”. > I legitimately feel like I am going insane when I hear AI technologists talk about the technology. They’re supposed to market it.…
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The marketing is clearly effecting individual developers, too. There's a mass psychosis happening
Maybe. I'm actually a big fan of Claude/Codex and use them extensively. The author of the article says the same. > To be clear: I like and use AI when it comes to coding, and even for other tasks. I think it’s been very effective at increasing my productivity—not as effective as the influencers claim it should be, but effective nonetheless. It's hard to get measured opinions. The most vocal opinions online are either…
They are fine, moderately useful here and there in terms of speeding up some of my tasks.
I wouldn't pay much more than 20 bucks for it though.
This is not the point the author was making, but I think this phrase implies that it's merely fear of change which is the problem. Change can bring about real problems and real consequences whether or not we welcome it with open arms.
> Microsoft’s AI CEO is saying AI is going to take everybody’s job. And Sam Altman is saying that AI will wipe out entire categories of jobs. ANd Matt Shumer is saying that AI is currently like Covid in January 2020—as in, “kind of under the radar, but about to kill millions of people”. > I legitimately feel like I am going insane when I hear AI technologists talk about the technology. They’re supposed to market it.…
something i wonder about with AI taking jobs -- similar to the ATM example in the article (and my experience with ai coding tools), the automation will start out by handling the easiest parts of our jobs. eventually, all the easy parts will be automated and the overall headcount will be reduced, but the actual content of the remaining job will be a super-distilled version of 'all the hard parts'. the jobs that remain…
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The marketing is clearly effecting individual developers, too. There's a mass psychosis happening
Maybe. I'm actually a big fan of Claude/Codex and use them extensively. The author of the article says the same. > To be clear: I like and use AI when it comes to coding, and even for other tasks. I think it’s been very effective at increasing my productivity—not as effective as the influencers claim it should be, but effective nonetheless. It's hard to get measured opinions. The most vocal opinions online are either…
Yes you can indeed vibe code a startup. But try building on that or doing anything relatively complicated and you're up shit creek. There's literally no one out there doing that in the influencer-sphere. It's all about the initial cut and MVP of a project, not the ongoing story.
The next failure is replacing a 20 year old legacy subsystem with 3MLOC with a new React / microservices thing. This has been sold to the directors as something we can do in 3 months with Claude. Project failure number three.
The only reality is no one learns or is accountable for their mistakes.
AI is scary, but look on the bright side: Whenever there is a massive paradigm shift in technology like we have with AI today, there are absolutely massive, devastating wars because the existing strategic stalemates are broken. Industrialized precision manufacturing? Now we have to figure out who can make the most rifles and machine guns. Industrialized manufacturing of high explosives? Time to have a whole world war…
Where were the massive devastating wars last time this happened with the internet and mobile phone?
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I think this is reality. None of our much-promoted AI initiatives have resulted in any ROI. In fact they have cost a pile of cash so far and delivered nothing.
After spending nearly 5 years building software which uses AI agents on the back end I've come to the conclusion it's the PC revolution part 2. Productivity gains won't show up on economic data and companies trying to automate everything will fail. But the average office worker will end up with a much more pleasant job and will need to know how to use the models, just like who they needed to learn to use a PC.