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Something Big Is Happening

shumer.dev

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Re: Something Big Is Happening

#71

Post by gavmor »

marstall wrote: post #70

Let's take that vibe coded product and iterate what it gave you 100 times, as you tweak it to fit your vision. When you do that 101st iteration, can you prevent it from breaking something else, or changing it in a way you don't like it? What if it doesn't understand what you're asking it to do and keeps failing and you have to keep rolling back? Can you understand the 20,000 lines it's generated so you can make the c…

To guard against this, the best course of action is probably modularization and composition, right? The Unix philosophy, ie building small, focused tools out of small, focused tools.

Re: Something Big Is Happening

#72

Post by nickorlow »

marstall wrote: post #70

Let's take that vibe coded product and iterate what it gave you 100 times, as you tweak it to fit your vision. When you do that 101st iteration, can you prevent it from breaking something else, or changing it in a way you don't like it? What if it doesn't understand what you're asking it to do and keeps failing and you have to keep rolling back? Can you understand the 20,000 lines it's generated so you can make the c…

Just run it a 102nd time to fix the error from the 101st time, obviously /j

Re: Something Big Is Happening

#73

Post by marstall »

gavmor wrote: post #71
marstall wrote: post #70

Let's take that vibe coded product and iterate what it gave you 100 times, as you tweak it to fit your vision. When you do that 101st iteration, can you prevent it from breaking something else, or changing it in a way you don't like it? What if it doesn't understand what you're asking it to do and keeps failing and you have to keep rolling back? Can you understand the 20,000 lines it's generated so you can make the c…

To guard against this, the best course of action is probably modularization and composition, right? The Unix philosophy, ie building small, focused tools out of small, focused tools.

yes - i've thought that could work. returning to a more protected object oriented programming model (with hard-defined interfaces) could be a way - "make these changes but restrict yourself to this object" etc.

Re: Something Big Is Happening

#75

Post by mycall »

rurihoshino wrote: post #52

So apparently according to Axios this blog post has gone "mega viral" and their article concludes by stating affirmatively that the "AI" revolution is here now. It's been shared by a number of normally trusted sources; my sister linked it to me because she saw Medi Hassan share it with a note that it's the most important thing you'll read in like forever. To me it reads exactly like every other blog post of it's genr…

It doesn't take much effort to find news about AI (LLMs) successfully being deployed with ROI in healthcare, legal, customer operations, retail, banking accounting/tax and more. I don't think the article needs to worry about Leaping a Conclusion as there is plenty of evidence outside.

Re: Something Big Is Happening

#76

Post by mycall »

mattlangston wrote: post #68
diminish wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

one feels the llm wow moment whenever what they do on an area has been surpassed by an llm. newer versions of llms are probably trained by the feedback from developer code agent sessions; so this is probably why pro developers started to feel "wow" recently. the real challenge will be in the frontier of the human knowledge and whether llms will be able to advance things forward or not. ps1; i'm using 5.3/o4.6/k2.5/m2…

The frontier-of-knowledge point is the right question. My own research is a case in point - I apply experimental physics methods to LLMs, measuring their equations of motion in search of a unified framework for how and why they work. Some of the answers I'm looking for may not exist in any training data. That's where the 4.5->4.6 jump hit me hardest - not routine tasks but problems where I need the model to reason ab…

That wrongness is the frontier labs trying to remove their benchmaxxing bias, so the models now have a concept of 'I don't know' and will rethink directions and goals better. There was lots of research last year on this topic, and it takes 6 to 12 months before it is implemented for general consumption.

2026 will see further improvements for you.

Re: Something Big Is Happening

#77

Post by nicwolff »

jakobnissen wrote: post #53
mattlangston wrote: post #47

PhD physicist (Stanford/SLAC), Research Software Engineer doing low-level systems work in C/C++ and LLM research. Not a founder or investor — just a practitioner. One data point for this thread: the jump from Opus 4.5 to 4.6 is not linear. The minor version number is misleading. In my daily work the capability difference is the largest single-model jump I've experienced, and I don't say that casually — I spent my car…

If you use Claude Code, it will take you half a day to learn to use Codex, and like 30 minutes to start being productive in it. The switching cost is almost zero. Just go test out GPT 5.3, there is no reason not to

It's a bit more than zero, because I have substantial tooling around Claude Code – subagents, skills, containerization, &c – that I'd have to (have Opus...) reimplement.

Re: Something Big Is Happening

#78

Post by coastingotter »

psiszj wrote: post #12
thinkingkong wrote: post #9

Management is going to quickly start bisecting human engineers along lines of maximalists and minimalists. The minimalists will all be let go. A few bad things will happen. A few systems will strain under the pressure but itll be “worth it” in the same way that its cheaper to pay lawsuits than do a recall of a plane. We arent innovating in other areas that might soften the blow. We dont have good support systems, soc…

If what the author says is true, there’s no point in management either.

Think IBM training manual had a quote about not being able to hold a computer accountable, so you cant let them make management decisions. Basically management will stick around so somebody can be held to blame if AI slop breaks

Re: Something Big Is Happening

#79

Post by car »

nicwolff wrote: post #77
jakobnissen wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you use Claude Code, it will take you half a day to learn to use Codex, and like 30 minutes to start being productive in it. The switching cost is almost zero. Just go test out GPT 5.3, there is no reason not to

It's a bit more than zero, because I have substantial tooling around Claude Code – subagents, skills, containerization, &c – that I'd have to (have Opus...) reimplement.

You can point CC at other models, e.g. via OpenRouter. It only requires three env variables to be set.

Re: Something Big Is Happening

#80

Post by s1mplicissimus »

mycall wrote: post #75
rurihoshino wrote: post #52

So apparently according to Axios this blog post has gone "mega viral" and their article concludes by stating affirmatively that the "AI" revolution is here now. It's been shared by a number of normally trusted sources; my sister linked it to me because she saw Medi Hassan share it with a note that it's the most important thing you'll read in like forever. To me it reads exactly like every other blog post of it's genr…

It doesn't take much effort to find news about AI (LLMs) successfully being deployed with ROI in healthcare, legal, customer operations, retail, banking accounting/tax and more. I don't think the article needs to worry about Leaping a Conclusion as there is plenty of evidence outside.

Mind sharing some of this supposedly easy to find evidence? I'm having a real hard time digging any up.
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