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Amazon plunge continues $1T wipeout as AI bubble fears ignite sell-off

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Re: Amazon plunge continues $1T wipeout as AI bubble fears ignite sell-off

#71

Post by sdf2erf »

simonw wrote: post #24
goalieca wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’ll get downvoted for your second statement. I think investors are struggling to see how AI turns into more money for consumers if it. It’s one thing to exclaim how your productivity is up, but does that translate into more profit and larger customer base if you’re a business? I very much doubt consumers will pay more than dollars a month for an LLM and I also very much doubt the ad market can grow large enough to…

Many people are spending significantly more time every day engaging with AI chatbots than they spend engaging with Google, and Google is one of the most valuable companies in the world.

Yeah.... stick to conversations strictly re. technology pal.

Re: Amazon plunge continues $1T wipeout as AI bubble fears ignite sell-off

#72

Post by sdf2erf »

bpodgursky wrote: post #8
zlkanter wrote: post #3

Amazon missed earnings and promptly doubled down on AI spending: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazon-plans-200b-ai-spending... It is encouraging to see that investors are punishing what is the greatest misallocation of capital since the dotcom bubble. Investors have figured out that AI is limited to probabilistic and annoying chatbots that are for entertainment and for looking up trivia questions.

I know it feels comforting to say this, but deep down you have to realize that saying things confidently does not cause them to become true.

Theres a real problem with people who are too tech-induced: youre disconnected from how the average person interacts with stuff.

Re: Amazon plunge continues $1T wipeout as AI bubble fears ignite sell-off

#73

Post by sdf2erf »

danielbln wrote: post #12
zlkanter wrote: post #3

Amazon missed earnings and promptly doubled down on AI spending: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazon-plans-200b-ai-spending... It is encouraging to see that investors are punishing what is the greatest misallocation of capital since the dotcom bubble. Investors have figured out that AI is limited to probabilistic and annoying chatbots that are for entertainment and for looking up trivia questions.

Why should anyone take your sensible first statement seriously if your second statement is so easily verifiably false? Some of these AI critical posts really are an exercise in Gell Mann Amnesia, man.

Im still waiting to read about macro-level mass-lay offs or insane productivity leaps.

Where are the results, tell me? What insanely great products have been shipped by people leveraging/building on top of LLMs...?

Yeah, silence. As usual.

Re: Amazon plunge continues $1T wipeout as AI bubble fears ignite sell-off

#74

Post by sdf2erf »

pchristensen wrote: post #35
symfrog wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In what way is the long term impact of LLMs being underestimated? If anything, it seems that it has been overestimated in the past years and that something other than LLMs will be needed to reach the original scaled LLM hope of AGI.

Back when the Internet was America online and some CGI bin perl scripts, there were a lot of very lofty things said about the potential of the Internet in the future. I don’t remember any of them predicting the power of the tech would have over business, politics, media, and hours of every single day for billions of people. Even without AGI, it’s quite possible that were still underestimating. The effects of predicti…

The internet alone didnt change sh!t. Without smartphones, unified app stores, cellular network innovation et al internet traffic would not be so high.

Funny how people leave this stuff out. Yawn. Basic simpleton analysis and takes.

Re: Amazon plunge continues $1T wipeout as AI bubble fears ignite sell-off

#75

Post by mlyle »

frumper wrote: post #62
mlyle wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just because people need a grocery store doesn't mean that you're guaranteed to make money running one. multiplying huge revenue by a small percentage to get a big positive number to multiplying huge revenue by a small negative percentage to get a big negative number So that's how Kroger managed to lose billions over the last couple of quarters, or how small changes in shoplifting/shrinkage based on store makeup can…

https://massmarketretailers.com/kroger-delivers-solid-quarte... They didn't lose money because of their grocery operations. Those margins have increased slightly.

They lost money because of their grocery delivery operations.

Their margins have increased slightly if you ignore the part where their efforts at grocery fulfillment blew up.

Just because an industry is essential doesn't mean that every firm in it makes money.

Re: Amazon plunge continues $1T wipeout as AI bubble fears ignite sell-off

#76

Post by reducesuffering »

sdf2erf wrote: post #73
danielbln wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why should anyone take your sensible first statement seriously if your second statement is so easily verifiably false? Some of these AI critical posts really are an exercise in Gell Mann Amnesia, man.

Im still waiting to read about macro-level mass-lay offs or insane productivity leaps. Where are the results, tell me? What insanely great products have been shipped by people leveraging/building on top of LLMs...? Yeah, silence. As usual.

There's literally a billion ChatGPT users already, the worlds fastest growing product. Do you think they're all just playing around in the sand? Ask anyone in education, it has completely upended every student's workflow.

Re: Amazon plunge continues $1T wipeout as AI bubble fears ignite sell-off

#77

Post by master_crab »

franktankbank wrote: post #65
bhouston wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AWS is not a software company either, it is a capital intensive computing infrastructure company. NVIDIA as well is a capital intensive computer hardware company. Just because software plays a role, doesn't make them software companies. It is like saying all companies are "electrical companies" because they require electricity to operate.

Is a seal a sea creature or a land dweller? Well it eats at sea.

One thing is for sure: if the seal builds and manages hundreds of billions of dollars worth of computer infrastructure across seven continents, it isn’t just a software company.

Re: Amazon plunge continues $1T wipeout as AI bubble fears ignite sell-off

#78

Post by master_crab »

bhouston wrote: post #9
DaedalusII wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

wall street analysts are starting to realise that software companies shouldnt trade on a P/E of 300. DocuSign is currently valued at 30 times its annual earnings. Adobe is currently 16. Amazon is 28 -- has been as high as 50 recently. NVDA is 44. Investors are basically starting to realise that enterprise are not going to subscribe to software like DocuSign for 50 years. They'll probably just move to odoo or zohosign…

> software companies shouldnt trade on a P/E of 300 You are playing pretty fast and loose with your definition of a "software company" when you include Amazon and NVIDIA in your list. Amazon is many things but it is not a "software company" and neither is "NVIDIA".

I actually don’t even think it’s a IaaS company. I mean it is, but Amazon seems to always excel at operations: whether it’s organizing a retail business, operating a logistics company, or managing a hyperscaler, it just seems like its real secret sauce is running ops.

(Which makes sense because all of their end user products suck)

Re: Amazon plunge continues $1T wipeout as AI bubble fears ignite sell-off

#79

Post by frumper »

mlyle wrote: post #75
frumper wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://massmarketretailers.com/kroger-delivers-solid-quarte... They didn't lose money because of their grocery operations. Those margins have increased slightly.

They lost money because of their grocery delivery operations. Their margins have increased slightly if you ignore the part where their efforts at grocery fulfillment blew up. Just because an industry is essential doesn't mean that every firm in it makes money.

I agree, all kinds of grocery stores have failed over the years. Kroger's just isn't a good example of a failing store for a lot of reasons. They aren't a stellar investment, but they are also up from 1 year ago and 5 years, so investor's don't look like they agree with your summary of the business.

Re: Amazon plunge continues $1T wipeout as AI bubble fears ignite sell-off

#80

Post by throwup238 »

franktankbank wrote: post #66
throwup238 wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don’t suppose you know a good “for dummies” explanation of why CUDA is such an insurmountable moat for them? Theoretically the moat isn’t insurmountable and AMD has made some inroads thanks to the open source community but in practice a generic CUDA layer requires a ton of R&D that AMD hasn’t been able to afford since the ATI acquisition. It’s been fighting for its existence for most of that time and just never h…

Maybe nobody has reputably released non-fortran versions but they probably exist.

Lots of other versions exist including reputable ones like Intel’s MKL. The hard part isn’t reimplementing it, it’s validating the output across a massive corpus of scientific work.

BLAS is an example though, it’s the tip of an iceberg.

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