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The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

bayramovanar.substack.com

71–80 of 230 posts

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also anecdotally, I've had a handful of software development positions throughout the years (never at a position with more than 200-300 person company) and have yet to be laid off due to money. I've yet to be laid off at all, but that's irrelevant. I truly believe that these new tools will actually hurt the bigger companies and conversely help smaller ones. I'm in healthcare. The big players in the EMR space are Epic…

Aren't they still going to need to reach out to the big players because of the regulatory environment? And for good reason, as it happens. We don't need hospitals handing over the public's health data to the cheapest person they can find to prompt it all into Claude.

You can be a small player and still deliver immense value in health care I work at a firm in a niche with about 30 employees. We follow all regulations and go above and beyond them in regards to security.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#72
post #24

Anecdotally, I didn't see more safety for engineers working on cash cows. Quite the contrary, if a product is already bringing revenue, it is an easy decision for the business to squeeze a bit more margin by letting people go. Stable, cash-generating projects are often first to be put into efficiency/maintenance mode.

Also anecdotally, I've had a handful of software development positions throughout the years (never at a position with more than 200-300 person company) and have yet to be laid off due to money. I've yet to be laid off at all, but that's irrelevant. I truly believe that these new tools will actually hurt the bigger companies and conversely help smaller ones. I'm in healthcare. The big players in the EMR space are Epic…

> What if, instead of having to reach out to the big players, the economics of having a software developer or 2 on staff make it such that you could build custom-tailored, bespoke software to work "with" your company and not against?

The behemoths exist especially, but not exclusively, in that space because regulations (correctly) are steep. In the case of hospital systems you're talking both the management and protection of both employee and patient data. That's not to say of course that the behemoth's are particularly good at that, it's merely that if the hospital rolls it's own solution, as you suggest, they then take on the liability should that system go wrong. On the other side, if Epic has a data breach, every hospital shrugs it's shoulders. It isn't their problem. And, even more fundamentally, if Epic as a product sucks ass... well. The employees didn't choose it, neither did the patients, leadership did.

You see these relationships (or lack thereof) all over the place in our modern world, where the people doing the work with these absurdly terrible tools are not given any decision-making power with regard to which tools to use. Hell, at my workplace, we actually have some in that leadership asks if we're happy with our various HR softwares and things, but fundamentally, they all pretty much suck and we're currently sitting at the least shitty one we could find, which is far from a solid fit for our smaller company. But it's the best we can do because none of these suites are designed to be good for people to use, they're designed to check a set of legal and feature checkboxes for the companies they sell to.

Honestly I don't know how you fix this, short of barring B2B SAAS as an entire industry. Time was, when you wanted to run a sales company, you had to run your own solution to keeping track of internal data. Salesforce didn't exist. You had rows upon rows of file cabinets, if there was a fire data was a lost, if a disgruntled worker stole your sales list and sold it to a competitor, that was it's own issue to deal with. Now crooks can crack the locks off of NetSuite and steal your whole fucking business without even knowing where the hell your HQ even is or caring for that matter, and our business universe if you will is bifurcated all to hell as a result. Companies are engaged in constant games of "pin the legal responsibility on someone else" because to compete, they need internet and software based sales and data management systems, but building those systems is a pain in the ass, and then you're responsible if they go wrong.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#73
post #12
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How exactly are good doctors easy to identify and hard to fire? And how does it follow that AI is a net negative when wielded by professionals who are excellent at what they do? If people can't identify qualified professionals without relying on credentials, they probably aren't qualified to be hiring managers.

> And how does it follow that AI is a net negative when wielded by professionals who are excellent at what they do? Simple, the 80% of code monkeys who are not good at what they do will cause way more damages than the "professionals who are excellent at what they do". And out fo tech I can guarantee you the vast majority of people use llms to do less, not to do more or do better It's also easily verifiable, supposedl…

It's really only in the last year the LLM's have gotten great and can output massive blocks of code that are functional.

LLM's are at least a 10x speed up on the 'producing code' portion of the job, but that's often only a fraction of the overall job. There's lots of time spent planning and in meetings, doing research, corporate red tape, etc.

For writing code and unit tests, generating deployment yaml and terraform, for me it's easily a 30x speed up. I can do in 1 or 2 hours what would have previously taken a week.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#74
post #15

>In traditional industries like manufacturing you don’t hire 500 factory workers unless you have a production line that needs them. You don’t over-hire based on a guess. Traditional factories do make wrong guesses about the future and overhire all the time. Example: https://www.google.com/search?q=Ford+f150+lightning+laid+off...

Sure, factories also overhire sometimes or shrink their businesses but not at the scale or frequency we see in tech.

Manufacturing sector has the most job cuts over time because the prediction of China not surpassing them was wrong. Tech employment on the other hand almost never decreased.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#75

> The result is the worst of both worlds. European engineers now face US-level job insecurity with European-level compensation and limited mobility. Firing people in most of Europe is still not as easy as it is in the US. The opposite is also true, it's not that easy to leave your employer and you have to give 1/3/6 months notice before leaving, depending on your role/seniority/contract. Sometimes companies even make…

Indeed. It's not impossible to lay off people in Europe but they can't just say "you're fired!". There's a process and it costs time and perhaps 3 to 6 months of salary and you have to prove the layoff is needed. The business is incentivized to reduce hiring and find other work for the employee to do, instead.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#76
post #34
post #7

> Yesterday, the news of 16k Amazon layoffs plus two LinkedIn posts on the same topic back-to-back encouraged me to finally write about it. Amazon is fundamentally a logistics + robotics company and is one of the worst companies to join for 'stability' as they have razor-thin margins. With almost 1.6M workers, the layoffs there are at least in the 5 figures and they will not stop to do the easiest thing possible in o…

They have an 11% operating margin. That is far from razor thin. Their biggest business is AWS. They have subscription income, and they sell digital downloads and streaming which are high margin. https://s2.q4cdn.com/299287126/files/doc_financials/2025/ar/...

Yeah, nobody makes this “margins are too low” complaint about Costco, which makes the majority of its profit on memberships, the exact same business model as Amazon Prime.

Amazon the logistics company is paid for by the $100+ per year that its customers just give to Amazon to get basically nothing in return.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#77

> The result is the worst of both worlds. European engineers now face US-level job insecurity with European-level compensation and limited mobility. Firing people in most of Europe is still not as easy as it is in the US. The opposite is also true, it's not that easy to leave your employer and you have to give 1/3/6 months notice before leaving, depending on your role/seniority/contract. Sometimes companies even make…

> This is just false, firing people in most of Europe is still not easy.

Down sizing is a perfectly legal reason to fire people in Europe, and it happens all the time when big companies do mass firings. The difficult part is getting to choose which individuals to fire.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#78

I'm not arguing against the core arguments of the article (I agree with most of the points), but on the other hand, software development is (at least currently) an essentially iterative process - one that differs greatly from other production processes (e.g. buildings, cars). We all know how difficult it is to estimate how much development time something takes. Planning is hard and outcomes have therefore greater var…

I generally agree with you, but if you look deeper, cars, buildings, and the underlying know-how didn’t appear in a day either.

Those were also iterative processes: first tires and mud houses, then horse carriages and brick houses, and eventually cars and buildings.

In that sense, it’s not fundamentally different from engineering today. Working on core engineering functionality of a company is essentially the same kind of process.

The difference lies in whether you’re working on core functionality, or on some iterative experiment that nobody knows will succeed.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#79
post #15

>In traditional industries like manufacturing you don’t hire 500 factory workers unless you have a production line that needs them. You don’t over-hire based on a guess. Traditional factories do make wrong guesses about the future and overhire all the time. Example: https://www.google.com/search?q=Ford+f150+lightning+laid+off...

Sure, factories also overhire sometimes or shrink their businesses but not at the scale or frequency we see in tech.

I've never worked in tech, but I've worked at manufacturers of various different sizes and places in the manufacturing supply chain, including finished goods.

Manufacturers can't hire beyond the places in production that someone can stand and do something. There needs to be some kind of equipment or process for worker to contribute in some meaningful way, even if it is merely for a projection of increased production (e.g., hiring a second shift for a facility currently running one shift).

What I wonder is if in tech, the "equipment" is a computer that supports everything a developer needs. From there, new things can be added to the existing product.

Manufacturing equipment is generally substantially more expensive than a computer and supporting software, though not always. Might this contribute to the differences, especially for manufacturing that normally runs 24-hour shifts?

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#80
post #47

Interesting framing. The article makes a compelling case that we're seeing the hangover from 14 years of ZIRP-fueled hiring rather than an AI apocalypse. But I'm curious what people think the equilibrium looks like. If the "two-tier system" (core revenue teams + disposable experimental teams) becomes the norm, what does that mean for the future of SWE as a career? A few scenarios I keep turning over: 1. Bifurcation -…

Look at any other industry. It's going to be like that.

Low–wage employees without agency.

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