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Software Pump and Dump

tautvilas.lt

71–80 of 166 posts

Re: Software Pump and Dump

#71
post #64
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I did a lot of postgraduate research around crypto from 2011 - 2016. There are a lot of parallels, and your message adds to them. "x is different because we can actually do useful stuff with it" is what every x enthusiast deep in an x bubble or pump n dump says about x. When the next big tech bubble comes along in 10 - 15 years, there will be people saying exactly what you just said: "NextBigTech you can actually use…

In those years of crypto, did you actually build anything relevant to the world? It sounds like you were in the wrong bubble and now have sour grapes. Meanwhile im using AI coding agents to build a B2B Saas.

I don't know how relevant to the world another b2b sass platform is. You could easily grab one from github which is where AI is got the data to build one in the first place.

Meanwhile cryto offers an alt banking platform used by many who have been debanked.

Re: Software Pump and Dump

#72
> The "dump" on their end was to use this as marketing bait and a way to inflate their valuation.

Maybe a bit different but I think it's worth pointing out how this parallels the state of the job market right now.

It is so hard to get hired, with so many moving and diverse frameworks, libraries, and technologies you are expected to know, that it's almost impossible to keep up and stand out.

The only way to do it is to develop "projects" that demonstrate your abilities in each target domain, and in these days of vibe coding these need to be more than sketches but like full fledged applications that can draw real attention to you, if your lucky get on the front page somewhere.

And with vibe coding it can be done relatively quickly.

So we're in this state of new projects, very impressive looking projects, getting posted every day, all the time, and about 1% of them will see any kind of longevity because the vast majority will be dumped as soon as the author gets a job.

This makes it increasingly difficult to select dependencies for downstream work.

Re: Software Pump and Dump

#73
post #45
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean besides crypto and ai being big investments, i barely see any parallels. AI you can actually use to build useful things in the world , and tokens are used not as trading , but transactional currency to do that building.

I did a lot of postgraduate research around crypto from 2011 - 2016. There are a lot of parallels, and your message adds to them. "x is different because we can actually do useful stuff with it" is what every x enthusiast deep in an x bubble or pump n dump says about x. When the next big tech bubble comes along in 10 - 15 years, there will be people saying exactly what you just said: "NextBigTech you can actually use…

This said I remember when the internet was a fad that wasn't going to stick around according to some people, so there is that.

Re: Software Pump and Dump

#74
post #71
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In those years of crypto, did you actually build anything relevant to the world? It sounds like you were in the wrong bubble and now have sour grapes. Meanwhile im using AI coding agents to build a B2B Saas.

I don't know how relevant to the world another b2b sass platform is. You could easily grab one from github which is where AI is got the data to build one in the first place. Meanwhile cryto offers an alt banking platform used by many who have been debanked.

I could be building a game, a home blog, any sort of OSS.

The point im making is that crypto exists purely as this alt investment, trading tokens to get rich. Im skeptical its actually being used as a currency in any real currency-fashion. But now seems to be stuck in pump and dump schemes.

Meanwhile, AI is enabling people right now, today, to help build and learn things they normally wouldnt do.

Re: Software Pump and Dump

#75
post #45
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean besides crypto and ai being big investments, i barely see any parallels. AI you can actually use to build useful things in the world , and tokens are used not as trading , but transactional currency to do that building.

I did a lot of postgraduate research around crypto from 2011 - 2016. There are a lot of parallels, and your message adds to them. "x is different because we can actually do useful stuff with it" is what every x enthusiast deep in an x bubble or pump n dump says about x. When the next big tech bubble comes along in 10 - 15 years, there will be people saying exactly what you just said: "NextBigTech you can actually use…

The difference is, for the claims of blockchain, it was trivially easy to look at and say, "This could have been a database".

Almost every single blockchain "product" (outside of the peer-to-peer trustless currency ) could have been a database.

This time the cost of entry of small software products has cratered.

For example, I was able to knock up a tool for a guide-maker for a niche game I play that gets about 500 peak daily players on steam.

The entire motivation for the tool is because I personally struggle to follow their well written guide. It takes a reasonable amount of focus and care to adjust a bunch of settings between "runs" based on the guide as written. Getting one of these wrong can set you back a bunch of time without even realising what went wrong.

These settings have an import/export feature in game, but that only allows for a few saved presets, and isn't easy to share.

So I've made a tool that lets people create, organise and share these presets.

Literally the only user is likely to be this single guide maker. Possibly a few others might use it to consume their guides.

Without claude-code, it would never have been reasonable for me to invest the time to make the tool. It would have been an idle dream sitting on my "I wish I had the discipline to make this" pile.

But I don't have the discipline to make that kind of project. I'm too easily distracted, and I'd have got bored of the idea before I'd finished establishing all the boilerplate, let alone before ironing out all the bugs. I also don't have the front-end talent to make things look pretty with CSS.

The LLM doesn't get demotivated. It doesn't get bored, and compressed the building of the prototype down to a day or two. Enough to keep my interest until feedback arrived. A week later, and it's shipped with 50+ issues raised and fixed.

Re: Software Pump and Dump

#76
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I did a lot of postgraduate research around crypto from 2011 - 2016. There are a lot of parallels, and your message adds to them. "x is different because we can actually do useful stuff with it" is what every x enthusiast deep in an x bubble or pump n dump says about x. When the next big tech bubble comes along in 10 - 15 years, there will be people saying exactly what you just said: "NextBigTech you can actually use…

Exactly this. Before crypto it was Big Data, before that it was Low-code platforms

You're telling me big data went away?

Re: Software Pump and Dump

#78
post #65

The top three stories on hn right now: 1. ▲ Moltbook (moltbook.com) 538 points by teej 8 hours ago | hide | 293 comments 2. ▲ Software Pump and Dump (tautvilas.lt) 108 points by brisky 5 hours ago | hide | 25 comments 3. ▲ OpenClaw – Moltbot Renamed Again (openclaw.ai) 256 points by ed 6 hours ago | hide | 110 comments This is art.

Yeah; I did not quite understand GasTown (although I like Steve's writing style); I absolutely do not understand Moltbook or its purpose; I'm not sure I understand the point of OpenClaw -- in the sense that its benefits are not immediately obvious, while its dangers are making big red flashes and fire sirens. Often when you don't understand something you feel stupid; but sometimes the reason you don't understand is b…

> I'm not sure I understand the point of OpenClaw -- in the sense that its benefits are not immediately obvious, while its dangers are making big red flashes and fire sirens.

I only skimmed the OpenClaw post, but unless I completely misunderstood the README in their GitHub repo, to me the benefits are stupidly obvious, and I was actually planning to look at it closer over the weekend.

The value proposition I saw is: hooking up one or more LLMs via API (BYOK) to one or more popular chat apps, via self-hostable control plane. Plus some bells and whistles.

The part about chat integration is something that I wanted to have even before LLMs were a thing, because I hate modern communication apps with burning fashion. All popular IM apps in particular[0] are just user-hostile prisons whose vendors go out of their way to make interoperability and end-user automation impossible. There's too much of that, and for a decade or more I dreamed of centralizing all these independent networks for myself in a single app. I considered working on the problem a few times, but the barriers vendors put up were always too much for my patience.

So here I thought, maybe someone solved this problem. That alone would be valuable.

Having an LLM, especially BYOK, in your main IM app? That's a no-brainer to me too; I think it's a travesty this is not a default feature already. Especially these days, as a parent, I find a good chunk of my IM use involves manually copy-pasting messages and photos to some LLM to turn them into reminders and calendar invites. And that's one of many use cases I have for tight IM/LLM integration.

So here I thought maybe this project will be a quick and easy way to finally get a sane, end-user-programmable chat experience. Shame to see it might be vaporware and/or a scam.

--

[0] - Excepting Telegram, which has a host of other problems - but I'd be fine living with them; unfortunately, everyone I need to communicate with uses either WhatsApp or Facebook Messenger these days.

Re: Software Pump and Dump

#79
How timely, I was just thinking about this today! Sure, we can write code quickly and in copious amounts, but the challenge of software engineering (at least in my imagination) has always been maintaining and upkeeping it.

Re: Software Pump and Dump

#80
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Why don’t you do something useful with your superpowers?

In the past year I’ve used AI coding assistants on a life-saving medical device product (no, followup commenter, I did not ship unreviewed vibes in a medical device product), a tool for editing documentation used in healthcare (no, followup commenter, it does not use LLMs to generate documentation), a piece of custom cue calling software for theater and to reverse engineer a TCP protocol to help modernize a piece of water quality measuring equipment.

But hey, every once in a while I like to have a little fun ;)

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