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Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

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Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#71

Post by jsheard »

nebula8804 wrote: post #52
Fiveplus wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is the traditional textbook yield curve logic, if I'm not wrong? Smaller area = higher probability of a surviving die on a dirty wafer. But I wonder if the sheer margin on AI silicon basically breaks that rule? If Nvidia can sell a reticle-sized package for 25k-30k USD, they might be perfectly happy paying for a wafer that only yields 30-40% good dies. Apple OTOH operates at consumer electronics price points. Th…

I thought they binned CPUs for things like AppleTV and lower cost iPads?

Yeah, most of their chips have two or more bins with different core configs, and the lower bins probably use salvaged dies.

For example the regular M4 can have 4 P-cores / 6 E-cores / 10 GPU cores, or 3/6/10 cores, or 4/4/8 cores, depending on the device.

They even do it on the smaller A-series chips - the A15 could be 2/4/5, 2/4/4, or 2/3/5.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#72

Post by HardCodedBias »

xnx wrote: post #63
JanSolo wrote: post #61

I'm surprised that Apple is not considering opening up its own fabs. Tim Cook is all about vertical-integration and they have a mountain of cash that they could use to fund the initial startup capex.

$20 billion for a new fab is a lot of money, even to Apple.

If it were only 20B then Apple would jump at the chance.

As would almost innumerable others.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#73

Post by DetroitThrow »

xnx wrote: post #63
JanSolo wrote: post #61

I'm surprised that Apple is not considering opening up its own fabs. Tim Cook is all about vertical-integration and they have a mountain of cash that they could use to fund the initial startup capex.

$20 billion for a new fab is a lot of money, even to Apple.

Closer to $40b for a new fab for an established company to do it all correctly. It's a much more major investment to open a fab without ever doing it before, then continually use the brain power/institutional knowledge you've built up to stay near the forefront of fab tech, and then basically have weird incentives to build a foundry for only your products rather than the world at large.

You're setting yourself up for making a huge part of your future revenue stream being set aside for ongoing chipfab capex and research engineering. And that's a huge gamble, since getting this all setup is not guaranteed to succeed.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#74

Post by cmgbhm »

JanSolo wrote: post #61

I'm surprised that Apple is not considering opening up its own fabs. Tim Cook is all about vertical-integration and they have a mountain of cash that they could use to fund the initial startup capex.

Apple has very much been wanted absolute flexibility to adopt major technology changes so much they’ve tried hard to not be the sole customer of a supplier and deal with political ramifications (source: Apple in China/Patrick McGee)

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#75

Post by techgnosis »

jobs_throwaway wrote: post #59
captain_coffee wrote: post #43

Legit question - what is the current status of the construction of chip production factories in the US? I know about the existence of the initiative but I don't know how it is progressing / what is actually going on on that front.

TMSC's Arizona fab is up and running producing 4nm chips There's ~a dozen in the works or under construction TMSC plans to have 2-3nm fabs operational in the next 2-3 years So we're 2-3 years behind the standard (currently 2nm), and further behind on the bleeding edge sub-2nm fabs

Don't forget Intel. They are producing chips on 18A right now, with 14A up next.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#76

Post by FuriouslyAdrift »

captain_coffee wrote: post #43

Legit question - what is the current status of the construction of chip production factories in the US? I know about the existence of the initiative but I don't know how it is progressing / what is actually going on on that front.

TSMC is already producing at their first one in Arizona (N4 process), second one comes online for N3 in 2028, and third one (N2) broke ground in April 2025 (online date 2029-30)

https://www.tsmc.com/static/abouttsmcaz/index.htm

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#77

Post by cezart »

re-thc wrote: post #45
YmiYugy wrote: post #39

It seems a bit odd that data center operators aren’t willing to put their money where their mouth is. Data center operators say: expand more quickly. TSMC says: we need long term demand to justify that. And all the data center guys say is: don’t worry that won’t be an issue, trust us. I would think that if they were serious they would commit to cofinancing new foundries or signing long term minimum purchasing agreeme…

> I would think that if they were serious they would commit to cofinancing new foundries or signing long term minimum purchasing agreements. That would ruin TSMC and others' independence. Nvidia already did buy Intel shares so it is a thing. Nvidia did discuss with TSMC for more capacity many times. It's not about financing or minimum purchasing agreements. TSMC played along during COVID and got hit.

What happened during COVID? Could you please explain shortly what they agreed to, and how it bit them?

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#78

Post by tim-tday »

re-thc wrote: post #45
YmiYugy wrote: post #39

It seems a bit odd that data center operators aren’t willing to put their money where their mouth is. Data center operators say: expand more quickly. TSMC says: we need long term demand to justify that. And all the data center guys say is: don’t worry that won’t be an issue, trust us. I would think that if they were serious they would commit to cofinancing new foundries or signing long term minimum purchasing agreeme…

> I would think that if they were serious they would commit to cofinancing new foundries or signing long term minimum purchasing agreements. That would ruin TSMC and others' independence. Nvidia already did buy Intel shares so it is a thing. Nvidia did discuss with TSMC for more capacity many times. It's not about financing or minimum purchasing agreements. TSMC played along during COVID and got hit.

How do you figure? Demand for electronics skyrocketed when everyone working from home bought new laptops webcams, tablets. There was a fire on a TSMC manufacturing line that caused a shortage early on but capacity recovered, demand stayed strong throughout and there was a massive spike at the end when car manufacturers needed to ramp back up to handle all the paused orders.

As far as I know there was never a demand dip at any point in there.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#79

Post by FuriouslyAdrift »

Antibabelic wrote: post #15
WesolyKubeczek wrote: post #10

...and then China invades Taiwan, and nobody ain't getting nothing.

I feel like China invading Taiwan isn't happening in our lifetimes. Yes, they stand to benefit from it, but I doubt any of the people in charge of decision making are that interested in rocking the boat. There's nobody forcing their hand and the country is doing great without needing to invade anyone.

2027 is the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party and they have publicly disclosed they want Taiwan re-united by then.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#80

Post by FuriouslyAdrift »

alex43578 wrote: post #38
adventured wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US has its own TSMC supply (insert comments about it not being cutting edge). And the US will stand-down and let China take Taiwan with no serious conflict in exchange for supply agreements. Not more than 5-10 years out at this point. The US can't even remotely come close to stopping China in its own backyard today, in another 5-10 years they'll just have that much larger of a Navy. The US knows that's the situat…

Yeah, I just don’t know that there’s the will to blow up the world economy for which flag flies over Taiwan. China absorbing Taiwan (especially to Americans) just doesn’t seem like a radical, terrifying concept. A Hong Kong style negotiated transfer might be best for the world - Taiwanese that want to leave can, the US can build up a parallel source of semiconductors, China gets Taiwan without firing a shot.

That didn't work out so well for Hong Kong.
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