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The next two years of software engineering

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Re: The next two years of software engineering

#71

Post by burnermore »

nerdsniper wrote: post #68
burnermore wrote: post #67

Something very odd about the tone of this article. Is it mostly AI written? There is a lot of references and info. But I am feeling far more disconnected with it. For the record, I was genuinely trying to read it properly. But it is becoming unbearable by mid article.

Yes, lots of AI style/writing in this article. I wouldn't necessarily discredit an article just based on stylization if the content was worth engaging with ... but like you mentioned, when the AI is given too much creative control it goes off the rails by the middle and turns into what the kids call "AI slop". It resembles an article, it has the right ingredients (words), but they aren't combined and cooked into any…

Thanks a lot for taking the time to confirm. Not hating on AI slop or something. But I do genuinely feel if he/she/they tried to invest time in writing it, people would consume and enjoy it better.

Its hard to put my finger on it. But it lacks soul, it factor or whatever you want to call it. Feels empty in a way.

I mean, this is not the first AI assisted article am reading. But usually, it's to a negligible level. Maybe it's just me. :)

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#73

Post by noufalibrahim »

trueismywork wrote: post #64
babblingfish wrote: post #20

My experience hasn't been LLMs automate coding, just speeds it up. It's like I know what I want the solution to be and I'll describe it to the LLM, usually for specific code blocks at a time, and then build it up block-by-block. When I read hacker news people are talking like it's doing much more than that. It doesn't feel like an automation tool to me at all. It just helps me do what I was gonna do anyways, but with…

You can think of LLMs as a higher level language for whatever programming language you are using, but informal with ambiguous grammar.

I don't think that works. The fact that it can produce different output for the same input, usage of tools etc. don't really fit into the analogy or mental model.

What has worked for me is treating it like an enthusiastic intern with his foot always on the accelerator pedal. I need to steer and manage the brakes otherwise, it'll code itself off a cliff and take my software with it. The most workable thing is a pair programmer. For trivial changes and repeatedly "trying stuff out", you don't need to babysit. For larger pieces, it's good to make each change small and review what it's trying.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#74

Post by mawadev »

I mean it's pretty simple: management will take bad quality (because they don't understand the field) over having and paying more employees any day. Software engineer positions will shrink and be unrecognizable: one person expected to be doing the work of multiple departments to stay employed. People may leave the field or won't bother learning it. When the critical mass is reached, AI will be paywalled and rug pulled. Then the field evens itself out again over a long, expensive period of time for every company that fell for it, lowering the expectations back to reality.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#75

Post by kubb »

tigrezno wrote: post #72

The next two years of software engineering will be the last two years of software engineering (probably).

Please don’t get my hopes up. Adaptable people like me will outcompete hard in the post-engineering world. Alas, I don’t believe it’s coming. The tech just doesn’t seem to have what it takes to do the job.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#77

Post by keybored »

Is there a Jeapordy for guessing prompts? Give an executive summary of GenAI trends where GenAI is the destiny and everything reacts to it. Touch on all “problems”. Don’t be divisive by making hard proclamations. Summarize in a safe way by appealing to the trope of the enthusiastic programmer who dutifully adapts to the world around them in order to stay “up to date”; the passive drone that accepts whatever environment they are placed in and never tries to change it. But add insult to injury by paradoxically concluding that the only safe future is the one you (individual) “actively engineer”.

I’m not saying that this was prompted. I’m just summarizing it in my own way.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#78

Post by globular-toast »

This article suggests it is specialists who are "at risk", but as much more of a generalist I was thinking the opposite and starting to regret not specialising more.

My value so far in my career has been my very broad knowledge of basically the entire of computer science, IT, engineering, science, mathematics, and even beyond. Basically, I read a lot, at least 10x more than most people it seems. I was starting to wonder how relevant that now is, given that LLMs have read everything.

But maybe I'm wrong about what my skill actually is. Everyone has had LLMs for years now and yet I still seem better at finding info, contextualising it and assimilating it than a lot of people. I'm now using LLMs too but so far I haven't seen anyone use an LLM to become like me.

So I remain slightly confused about what exactly it is about me and people like me that makes us valuable.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#79

Post by amelius »

tigrezno wrote: post #72

The next two years of software engineering will be the last two years of software engineering (probably).

I don't see the market flooded yet with software that was "so easy to build using LLMs".

Last year was, as it seems, just a normal year in terms of global software output.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#80

Post by snovv_crash »

mellosouls wrote: post #4

On the junior developer question: A humble way for devs to look at this, is that in the new LLM era we are all juniors now . A new entrant with a good attitude, curiosity and interest in learning the traditional "meta" of coding (version control, specs, testing etc) and a cutting-edge, first-rate grasp of using LLMs to assist their craft (as recommended in the article) will likely be more useful in a couple of years…

Sorry but no. Software engineering is too high dimensional such that there is no rulebook for doing it the way there is for building a bridge. You need to develop taste, much like high level Go players do. This is even more critical as LLMs start to spit out code at an ever higher rate allowing entropy to accumulate much faster and letting unskilled people paint themselves into corners.

I think of it a bit like ebike speed limits. Previously to go above 25mph on a 2-wheeled transport you needed a lot of time training on a bicycle, which gave you the skills, or you needed your motorcycle licence, which required you to pass a test. Now people can jump straight on a Surron and hare off at 40mph with no handling skills and no license. Of course this leads to more accidents.

Not to say LLMs can't solve this eventually, RL approaches look very strong and maybe some kind of self-play can be introduced like AlphaZero. But we aren't there yet, that's for sure.

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