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Is it a bubble?

oaktreecapital.com

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Re: Is it a bubble?

#71

Post by qsort »

sp4cec0wb0y wrote: post #7

> In many advanced software teams, developers no longer write the code; they type in what they want, and AI systems generate the code for them. What a wild and speculative claim. Is there any source for this information?

Everyone is doing this extreme pearl clutching around the specific wording. Yeah, it's not 100% accurate for many reasons, but the broader point was about employment effects, it doesn't need to completely replace every single developer to have a sizable impact. Sure, it's not there yet and it's not particularly close, but can you be certain that it will never be there?

Error bars, folks, use them.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#72

Post by n8cpdx »

[deleted] wrote: post #62
kscarlet wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The line right after this is much worse: > Coding performed by AI is at a world-class level, something that wasn’t so just a year ago. Wow, finance people certainly don't understand programming.

[deleted]

> Including how it looks at the surrounding code and patterns.

Citation needed. Even with specific examples, “follow the patterns from the existing tests”, etc copilot (gpt 5) still insists on generating tests using the wrong methods (“describe” and “it” in a codebase that uses “suite” and “test”).

An intern, even an intern with a severe cognitive disability, would not be so bad at pattern following.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#73

Post by derf_ »

languagehacker wrote: post #54

Impressive that you have have that many assets under management and still not show a clear understanding of an industry you're prognosticating on. The author doesn't talk at all about the hardware aspect of this stuff such as the surprisingly short lifetime of the GPUs that are being rolled out at a break-neck pace. The recommendation that you take a moderate investment position and not overdo it could be shared with…

> The author doesn't talk at all about the hardware aspect of this stuff such as the surprisingly short lifetime of the GPUs that are being rolled out at a break-neck pace.

There is literally a section that begins, "What will be the useful life of AI assets?" In bold.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#74

Post by shakna »

esafak wrote: post #65
tapoxi wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So they don't own the copyright to most of their code? What's the value then?

They do. Where did you get this? All the providers have clauses like this: "4.1. Generally. Customer and Customer’s End Users may provide Input and receive Output. As between Customer and OpenAI, to the extent permitted by applicable law, Customer: (a) retains all ownership rights in Input; and (b) owns all Output. OpenAI hereby assigns to Customer all OpenAI’s right, title, and interest, if any, in and to Output." h…

The outputs of AI are most likely in the public domain. As automated process output are public domain, and the companies claim fair use when scraping, making the input unencumbered, too.

It wouldn't be OpenAI holding copyright - it would be no one holding copyright.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#75

Post by dist-epoch »

sp4cec0wb0y wrote: post #7

> In many advanced software teams, developers no longer write the code; they type in what they want, and AI systems generate the code for them. What a wild and speculative claim. Is there any source for this information?

source: me

I wrote 4000 lines of Rust code with Codex - a high throughput websocket data collector.

Spoiler: I do not know Rust at all. I discussed possible architectures with GPT/Gemini/Grok (sync/async, data flow, storage options, ...), refined a design and then it was all implemented with agents.

Works perfectly, no bugs.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#76

Post by jimlawruk »

If you look at the chart at the bottom comparing Dec 99 to today....

> during the internet bubble of 1998-2000, the p/e ratios were much higher

That is true, the current players are more profitable, but the weight in SPX percentages looks to be much higher today.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#77

Post by n8cpdx »

johnfn wrote: post #49
MontyCarloHall wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I only write around 5% of the code I ship, maybe less. >I do thoroughly audit all the code that AI writes, and often go through multiple iterations Does this actually save you time versus writing most of the code yourself? In general, it's a lot harder to read and grok code than to write it [0, 1, 2, 3]. For me, one of the biggest skills for using AI to efficiently write code is a) chunking the task into increments…

Yes, I save an incredible amount of time. I suspect I’m likely 5-10x more productive, though it depends exactly what I’m working on. Most of the issues that you cite can be solved, though it requires you to rewire the programming part of your brain to work with this new paradigm. To be honest, I don’t really have a problem with chunking my tasks. The reason I don’t is because I don’t really think about it that way. I…

Did you do 5-10 years of work in the year after you adopted AI? If you started after AI came in to existence 3 years ago (/s) you should have achieved 30 years of work output - a whole career of work.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#78

Post by marcosdumay »

stack_framer wrote: post #58
f154hfds wrote: post #38

The post script was pretty sobering. It's kind of the first time in my life that I've been actively hoping for a technology to out right not deliver on its promise. This is a pretty depressing place to be, because most emerging technologies provide us with exciting new possibilities whereas this technology seems only exciting for management stressed about payroll. It's true that the technology currently works as an e…

> It's kind of the first time in my life that I've been actively hoping for a technology to out right not deliver on its promise. Same here, and I think it's because I feel like a craftsman. I thoroughly enjoy the process of thinking deeply about what I will build, breaking down the work into related chunks, and of course writing the code itself. It's like magic when it all comes together. Sometimes I can't even beli…

I'm quite ok with only writing code in my personal time. In fact, if I could solve the problems there faster, I'd be delighted.

Instead, I've reacted to the article from the opposite direction. All those grand claims about stuff this tech doesn't do and can't do. All that trying to validate the investment as rational when it's absolutely obvious it's at least 2 orders of magnitude larger than any arguably rational value.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#79

Post by [deleted] »

esafak wrote: post #65
tapoxi wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So they don't own the copyright to most of their code? What's the value then?

They do. Where did you get this? All the providers have clauses like this: "4.1. Generally. Customer and Customer’s End Users may provide Input and receive Output. As between Customer and OpenAI, to the extent permitted by applicable law, Customer: (a) retains all ownership rights in Input; and (b) owns all Output. OpenAI hereby assigns to Customer all OpenAI’s right, title, and interest, if any, in and to Output." h…

[deleted]

Re: Is it a bubble?

#80

Post by Joel_Mckay »

f154hfds wrote: post #38

The post script was pretty sobering. It's kind of the first time in my life that I've been actively hoping for a technology to out right not deliver on its promise. This is a pretty depressing place to be, because most emerging technologies provide us with exciting new possibilities whereas this technology seems only exciting for management stressed about payroll. It's true that the technology currently works as an e…

LLM slop doesn't have aspirations at all, its just click bait nonsense.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_zfN9wnPvU0

Drives people insane:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yftBiNu0ZNU

And LLM are economically and technologically unsustainable:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-8TDOFqkQA

These have already proven it will be unconstrained if AGI ever emerges.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xx4Tpsk_fnM

The LLM bubble will pass, as it is already losing money with every new user. =3

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