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It's interesting that Amazon don't appear interested in acquiring Anthropic, which would have seemed like somewhat of a natural fit given that they are already partnered, Anthropic have apparently optimized (or at least adapted) for Trainium, and Amazon don't have their own frontier model. It seems that Amazon are playing this much like Microsoft - seeing themselves are more of a cloud provider, happy to serve anyone…
That S1 is gonna make for a fun read. It'll make Adam Neumann blush.
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The optimistic view is that Anthropic is one of about four labs in the world capable of generating truly state-of-the-art models. Also, Claude Code is arguably the best tool in its category at the moment. They have the developer market locked in. The problem as I see it is that neither of those things are significant moats. Both OpenAI and Google have far better branding and a much larger user base, and Google also h…
when has anything been 'locked in', someone comes with a better tool people will switch.
Retail investors yoloing into AI at peak bubble vibes sounds about right
This is the real note - if the company was truly valuable, they wouldn't IPO, they'd get slurped up by someone big. Modern IPOs are mainly dumping on retail and index investors.
Also:
> The US led a sharp rebound, driven by a surge in IPO filings and strong post-listing returns following the Federal Reserve’s rate cut.
It could be smart for them to get in now with so much talk of a bubble or potential stock market correction.
"Be first, be smarter, or cheat" well. Being first might really be the best game theory move if the collapse will start from you.
I love claude, but looking at google it seems like it will just be a matter of time before Google/Gemini will be a better product. Just looking at how much Google have improved their AI game the last couple months. I'm putting my money on google, I assume the reason they are doing an IPO right now is to be able to cash in on the investment before google surpasses them. It's a hot take, I know :D
That said Gemini is still very, very good at reviews, SQL, design and smaller (relatively) edits; but today it is not at all obvious that Google is going to win it all. They’re positioned very well, but execution needs to be top notch.
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Just how much of the market do retail investors control? I thought they were a drop in the bucket. Also, is there a way to know how much of the total volume of shares is being traded now? If I kept hyping my company (successfully), and drove the share price from $10 to $1000, thanks to retail hype, I could 100x the value of my company lets say from $100m to $10B, while the amount of money actually changing hands woul…
Retail is a big deal these days. Used to be sub 10%, now it’s in the 30-40% of daily volume range IIUC. You can easily look up the numbers you are asking for, the TLDR is that the volume in most stocks is high enough that you can’t manipulate it much. If it’s even 2x overpriced then there’s 100m on the table for whoever spots this and shorts, ie enough money that plenty of smart people will be spending effort on mode…
This isn't going to end well is it.
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Why are you assuming Anthropic is for sale? They have a clear path to profitability, booming growth, and a massive and mission driven founding team. They could make more money keeping control of the company and have control.
> They have a clear path to profitability I'd love to see evidence for such a thing, because it's not clear to me at all that this is the case. I personally think they're the best of the model providers but not sure if any foundation model companies (pure play) have a path to profitability.
https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-acquires-bun-as-cla...
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LOL of course they don't want to own Anthropic, else they themselves would be responsible for coming up with the $10s of billions in Monopoly money that Anthropic has committed to pay AMZN for compute in the next few years. Better to take an impressive looking stake and leave some other idiot holding the buck.
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Not only the models but also training data, model architecture, documentation, weights and latest R&D experiments ?
Take an instance -> Snapshot -> Investigate.
Unless they get caught it is not illegal.