71–80 of 106 posts
It feels like any time scale on AGI is basically just made up. Since no one has any idea of how to get there, how could you possibly estimate how long it will take? We could stumble on some secret technique that unlocks AGI tomorrow or it could be literally impossible. You might as well ask how long until humans can cast magic spells.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why would language restrict LLMs? "Language" is an input/output interface. It doesn't define the internals that produce those inputs and outputs. And between those inputs and outputs sits a massive computational process that doesn't operate on symbols or words internally. And, what "clearer milestones" do you want exactly? To me, LLMs crushing NLU and CSR was the milestone. It was the "oh fuck" moment, the clear sign…
Language is an interface between whatever our thoughts actually are and the outside world. Imagine trying to write apps without thinking about the limitations of the APIs you use. In fact we just recently escaped that same stupidity in the SaaS era! That's how silly LLMs will seem in the near future. They will stick around as the smarter chatbots we've wanted for so long, but they are so very far away from AGI.
That's how a lot of bleeding edge multimodals work already. They can take and emit images, sound, actions and more.
I think the best take in AGI is Edsger Dijkstra's: “The question of whether a computer can think is no more interesting than the question of whether a submarine can swim.” I am not interested in computers that have their own intelligence but I do want computers that increase my own intelligence.
I've read this multiple times and disagree. If I had an AGI that designs me a safe, small and cheap fusion reactor, of course I would be interested in that. My intelligence is intrinsically limited by my biology. The only way to really scale it up is to wire stuff into my brain, and I'd prefer an AGI over that every day.
But if I can't understand how and why the fusion reactor is safe, small and cheap, I wouldn't consider it safe.
Very much the same way that I don't take Claude Code's changes to my code without understanding what it does.
Augmenting my intelligence is non-negotiable. I want to be in control.
It is the classic "trust but verify". And I need my own intelligence to verify.
Also, somewhat related, the model/system that was reported by the Google whistleblower about LaMDA was very interesting for the time, especially considering the transcript. What happens when the guardrails are disabled? Even if it wasn't sentient, it's behavior might be reason for concern.
For example, a "space race" might be "won" by the first participant to reach space, or to reach the moon
Is it possible to have a "race" without a time limit or a finish line or some way to determine the "winner"
[flagged]
"When disagreeing, please reply to the argument instead of calling names. 'That is idiotic; 1 + 1 is 2, not 3' can be shortened to '1 + 1 is 2, not 3."
This is slop right? >This isn’t a minor gap; it’s a fundamental limitation. >His timeline? At least a decade, probably much longer. >What does that mean? Simply throwing more computing power and data at current models isn’t working anymore. >His timeline for truly useful agents? About ten years.
It feels like any time scale on AGI is basically just made up. Since no one has any idea of how to get there, how could you possibly estimate how long it will take? We could stumble on some secret technique that unlocks AGI tomorrow or it could be literally impossible. You might as well ask how long until humans can cast magic spells.
We might start by trying to define what AGI exactly is. It's an elusive goal.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm very confused by your comment, but appreciate that you have precisely made my point. There are no "bets" with regard to these topics. How do you think a computer works? Do you seriously believe LLMs somehow escape the limitations of the machines they run on?
And what are the limitations of the machines they run on? We're yet to find any process at all that can't be computed with a Turing machine. Why do you expect that "intelligence" is a sudden outlier? Do you have an actual reason to expect that?
Life. Consciousness. A soul. Imagination. Reflection. Emotions.
It feels like any time scale on AGI is basically just made up. Since no one has any idea of how to get there, how could you possibly estimate how long it will take? We could stumble on some secret technique that unlocks AGI tomorrow or it could be literally impossible. You might as well ask how long until humans can cast magic spells.