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Preparing for AI's economic impact: exploring policy responses

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Re: Preparing for AI's economic impact: exploring policy responses

#71

Post by buu700 »

cudgy wrote: post #65
buu700 wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Personally, if I were going to publish something like this as a leader of a major AI company today, I would actually try very hard to put together a good faith proposal that I genuinely believed to be in the best interests of the public. I can't speak to this particular proposal or the motivations behind it, but I think my approach is the smart play in the present circumstances. Why publish something brazenly self-se…

“My current preference is a guaranteed educational/training stipend for any unemployed adult who wants one, and changing the standard career advice for the next generation from "learn to code" to "learn to startup".” I agree with this sentiment in the short term for people that have coding or startup skills already. We may need to ask ourselves at some point. Why work for a company when I can use AI to create a compe…

I think it could be a pretty reasonable system. The idea is that universal guaranteed stipends would become the ultimate backstop: almost a UBI, but targeted at those with actual need for it while requiring something of social benefit in return. I'd imagine that under this system the average person would live off of stipends indefinitely, which is fine because acting as a redundant store of useful knowledge is valuable to society in and of itself.

If someone runs a startup that isn't providing a livable income and they don't have savings to live off of, that startup shouldn't be their full-time job. Of course startups aren't for everyone, just as coding isn't, but there are many other forms of self-employment. Even so, I'd imagine successful startups to be far more common than today in such an environment — if not by percentage, at least by absolute numbers. A world of cheap and abundant capital with engineering and physical labor available at a fraction of the cost of human employees would be an entrepreneur's dream.

Re: Preparing for AI's economic impact: exploring policy responses

#72

Post by cudgy »

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #70
cudgy wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“So unless humanity recognizes this and decides to organize as humans (not as europeans, or alabamans or han etc…) then this is the only possible outcome.” Why do you think this is the only possible outcome? Aren’t we already organized as humans? Won’t people revolt when this really hits the fan?

No we’re not organized as humans Revolt is a transitional process only, from one structure to another, it doesn’t change the fundamental math of the fact that humans are not eusocial

So humans are just running around as unorganized individuals, hermits, living in small tents in the woods by themselves. There are no borders or countries or associations of humans. We are all just unorganized. Really?

Either your definition of organized is different than mine or this is a silly conversation.

Re: Preparing for AI's economic impact: exploring policy responses

#73

Post by cudgy »

buu700 wrote: post #71
cudgy wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“My current preference is a guaranteed educational/training stipend for any unemployed adult who wants one, and changing the standard career advice for the next generation from "learn to code" to "learn to startup".” I agree with this sentiment in the short term for people that have coding or startup skills already. We may need to ask ourselves at some point. Why work for a company when I can use AI to create a compe…

I think it could be a pretty reasonable system. The idea is that universal guaranteed stipends would become the ultimate backstop: almost a UBI, but targeted at those with actual need for it while requiring something of social benefit in return. I'd imagine that under this system the average person would live off of stipends indefinitely, which is fine because acting as a redundant store of useful knowledge is valuab…

We are far from UBI though. It will take major league arm-twisting to get the government to take care of citizens like that. The oligarchs want it all, and it’ll take some serious work to overcome their resistance to increasing their taxes for UBI.

Also, AI may be more capable by the time we even get there if we ever do and AI may be a better entrepreneur than a human. Once that happens, look for the cost of AI to go sky high and access to it highly restricted and only available to the elite.

Re: Preparing for AI's economic impact: exploring policy responses

#74

Post by AndrewKemendo »

cudgy wrote: post #72
AndrewKemendo wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No we’re not organized as humans Revolt is a transitional process only, from one structure to another, it doesn’t change the fundamental math of the fact that humans are not eusocial

So humans are just running around as unorganized individuals, hermits, living in small tents in the woods by themselves. There are no borders or countries or associations of humans. We are all just unorganized. Really? Either your definition of organized is different than mine or this is a silly conversation.

Yes clearly it’s different definition

Organization means everyone is in the same singular organizational identity - eusocially

The closest formal group seems to be the European Union - but that’s still infinitely far away from what’s needed to survive

Humans either figure out how to form a biological superorganism or go extinct to non-human intelligence

This isn’t happening tomorrow, but on century time scales, it’s obviously the only likely trajectory

Re: Preparing for AI's economic impact: exploring policy responses

#75

Post by intended »

sateesh wrote: post #59
intended wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then There are NO options. We will have to live with that world and having no future. I’m aware that this level of nihilism is difficult for many to stomach - but it’s only nihilism if you believe in fairy tales. If we are talking about reality then we have to deal with the impossible challenges we are facing. The fact is that retraining will not work - nor is this the first time it’s been named as a hope up in the p…

Not that I completely disagree with you, yes indeed with excellent training not sure how many can be retrained to be good enough for new kind of job roles, skills. Also it isn't certain that there will be far more new jobs than what would get shed, in which case there won't be enough demand to absorb even the retrained (and skilled) labor.

Sadly my friend, the fact is that we are hosed.

Retraining is a pipe dream which will be sold for another 5 years, till most people are underemployed.

This is what happened to factory workers, and to an extent is going to happen to knowledge workers.

The real menace is hidden in the details though - knowledge work is assumed to have one core component - information. Accurate information.

In reality it has two - emotional salience and informational accuracy.

LLMs generate content- I foresee a future where people are underemployed as output verifiers. So a PhD in physics helps you QC an LLM.

The only job left is to own a firm, but even that will be closed because you will either be selling to capital owners or the majority of humanity.

The only hope of technology is that it creates a revolution which upends the preexisting incumbents. But the issue here is the under employment.

Re: Preparing for AI's economic impact: exploring policy responses

#76

Post by frozenseven »

Jensson wrote: post #64
frozenseven wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>bursting of the AI bubble I hope people will eventually revisit these predictions and admit they were wrong.

There is an AI bubble just like there were a dotcom bubble, they are not wrong everyone know there is an AI bubble even Sam Altman says that AI is currently a bubble. The question is how much value AI gives after the bubble has popped, but there is a bubble.

AI is undervalued & I don't give a shit what Sam Altman has to say about anything.

Re: Preparing for AI's economic impact: exploring policy responses

#77

Post by cudgy »

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #74
cudgy wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So humans are just running around as unorganized individuals, hermits, living in small tents in the woods by themselves. There are no borders or countries or associations of humans. We are all just unorganized. Really? Either your definition of organized is different than mine or this is a silly conversation.

Yes clearly it’s different definition Organization means everyone is in the same singular organizational identity - eusocially The closest formal group seems to be the European Union - but that’s still infinitely far away from what’s needed to survive Humans either figure out how to form a biological superorganism or go extinct to non-human intelligence This isn’t happening tomorrow, but on century time scales, it’s…

OK. Now I understand where you’re coming from. You are using an analogy to insect groups with the term eusocial, which is defined as “cooperative brood care (including care of offspring from other individuals), overlapping generations within a colony of adults, and a division of labor into reproductive and non-reproductive groups.”

Not sure I would use the word organized to describe this though. It actually sounds more like hunter-gatherer society / commune / family. It does seem unlikely that this could happen on a global scale though. It’s more likely to occur in smaller groups, because without some familiarity between the people, they’re unlikely to open up with such personal activities like child rearing.

Anyway, I like your idea. Humans coming together to ensure fairness is going to be necessary. I just don’t think it’s a realistic expectation to expect this at the global scale.

What may be feasible is for people with similar occupations joining together in global labor unions for leverage against the corporations. These unions could have standards for how workers interface with corporations, especially global corporations utilizing AI and or other technologies that impact society in a potentially harmful way.

Re: Preparing for AI's economic impact: exploring policy responses

#78

Post by hackable_sand »

intended wrote: post #75
sateesh wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not that I completely disagree with you, yes indeed with excellent training not sure how many can be retrained to be good enough for new kind of job roles, skills. Also it isn't certain that there will be far more new jobs than what would get shed, in which case there won't be enough demand to absorb even the retrained (and skilled) labor.

Sadly my friend, the fact is that we are hosed. Retraining is a pipe dream which will be sold for another 5 years, till most people are underemployed. This is what happened to factory workers, and to an extent is going to happen to knowledge workers. The real menace is hidden in the details though - knowledge work is assumed to have one core component - information. Accurate information. In reality it has two - emoti…

Can I also get a PhD in Hacker News Commenting?

Re: Preparing for AI's economic impact: exploring policy responses

#79

Post by AndrewKemendo »

cudgy wrote: post #77
AndrewKemendo wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes clearly it’s different definition Organization means everyone is in the same singular organizational identity - eusocially The closest formal group seems to be the European Union - but that’s still infinitely far away from what’s needed to survive Humans either figure out how to form a biological superorganism or go extinct to non-human intelligence This isn’t happening tomorrow, but on century time scales, it’s…

OK. Now I understand where you’re coming from. You are using an analogy to insect groups with the term eusocial, which is defined as “cooperative brood care (including care of offspring from other individuals), overlapping generations within a colony of adults, and a division of labor into reproductive and non-reproductive groups.” Not sure I would use the word organized to describe this though. It actually sounds mo…

Yes you nailed it! Thanks for the thoughtful response.

> I just don’t think it’s a realistic expectation to expect this at the global scale.

This is exactly my point. We dont have the biology for it - mammals don’t have eusocial traits because we’re too complex and egocentric, to the extent that game theoretic defections are individually risky but can have individual benefits.

A group of soldier ants can’t start their own colony because they physically cannot reproduce without a heirarchical queen because they are effectively sterile.

Dunbar number limits the possible social interactions at the depth you describe to 150-250 people at the most. That’s your tribal limit and it’s seen in extant hunter gatherer groups as you describe

While your ideas are valid about global labor cooperation, ultimately it’s stymied by the limitations of the cerebellum size, and you’re back to where you started.

Note that we already tried the hunter gatherer thing for about 250ky and it got overrun by transacional colonialism.

If you want to read my theory work on this here are some resources - note though it’s a lot of reading:

https://kemendo.com/Myth-of-Scarcity.html

https://kemendo.com/GTC.pdf

Re: Preparing for AI's economic impact: exploring policy responses

#80

Post by intended »

hackable_sand wrote: post #78
intended wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sadly my friend, the fact is that we are hosed. Retraining is a pipe dream which will be sold for another 5 years, till most people are underemployed. This is what happened to factory workers, and to an extent is going to happen to knowledge workers. The real menace is hidden in the details though - knowledge work is assumed to have one core component - information. Accurate information. In reality it has two - emoti…

Can I also get a PhD in Hacker News Commenting?

Well, considering that your comments are used to feed these systems, I think its more of creating a hacker news commenters union.
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