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No science, no startups: The innovation engine we're switching off

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Re: No science, no startups: The innovation engine we're switching off

#71
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not why it can’t be done so much as why it isn’t done. Share buybacks allow companies to reward executives directly as their compensation is tied to stock price. If we started not doing that, the priorities might shift, but those executives like things the way they are. Before Tim Cook Apple had never done a buyback - Jobs was always thinking Apple could do better with the money in R&D than paying off shareholders. W…

Dumb maybe question: Why couldn’t the companies with excess profits just pay they employees more in salaries?

Why would they do that when they could pay shareholders and themselves?

Re: No science, no startups: The innovation engine we're switching off

#72
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All the people in charge currently are banking on being rich, enjoying society as they have made it, and then dead before it personally affects them.

I dunno about the last part. Rich people under 60 seem to be under the impression they might live forever, either biologically or digitally. Within our lifetime we see people trying to make their digital twin their legal heir.

I get the longevity angle (even if I think it’s not possible or even desirable) but digital twin I don’t understand. It’s like a different person altogether. Even if it was possible to completely clone a persona digitally it would not be you but someone else.

Re: No science, no startups: The innovation engine we're switching off

#73

> In the 20th century, U.S. companies put their excess profits into corporate research labs. Basic research in the U.S. was done in at Dupont, Bell Labs, IBM, AT&T, Xerox, Kodak, GE, et al. This changed in 1982, when the Securities and Exchange Commission ruled that it was legal for companies to buy their own stock (reducing the number of shares available to the public and inflating their stock price.) Very quickly B…

Not why it can’t be done so much as why it isn’t done. Share buybacks allow companies to reward executives directly as their compensation is tied to stock price. If we started not doing that, the priorities might shift, but those executives like things the way they are. Before Tim Cook Apple had never done a buyback - Jobs was always thinking Apple could do better with the money in R&D than paying off shareholders. W…

> Share buybacks allow companies to reward executives directly as their compensation is tied to stock price.

To be fair share owners also like the stock price to go higher, they also like dividends (and higher dividends would tend to drive the stock price higher too), but an X% increase in share price caused by buybacks is favoured over an X% dividend because it isn’t immediately taxed.

Re: No science, no startups: The innovation engine we're switching off

#74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not why it can’t be done so much as why it isn’t done. Share buybacks allow companies to reward executives directly as their compensation is tied to stock price. If we started not doing that, the priorities might shift, but those executives like things the way they are. Before Tim Cook Apple had never done a buyback - Jobs was always thinking Apple could do better with the money in R&D than paying off shareholders. W…

But dividends also result in a concrete financial reward for all shareholders, yes?

> all shareholders

That's the key phrase, they benefit all shareholders. Buybacks on the other hand only benefit the following shareholders:

1. those with regularly vesting stock options and stock grants - basically employees. For non-tech companies especially, this only means high-ranking employees

2. those who intend to sell - that is, soon-to-be-ex shareholders

3. those who borrow against their stock - typically high-net-worth individuals who own a lot of the stock

Stock buybacks are thus a non-egalitarian way to return profits. To reward all shareholders equally, pay dividends.

Re: No science, no startups: The innovation engine we're switching off

#75

There's something odd in this argument. If you come at it from a Canadian perspective Canada seriously spent on neural network computer science when almost no one else did (many in AI considered the entire thing discredited and impossible), now the (financial) gains from that are almost entirely in a foreign country. The US science establishment was all about buying and utilizing Russian rocket engines until he-that-…

Because talent and ideas move so easily between the US and Canada, any useful basic science that Canada comes up with will ultimately be monetized in the country with 10x the population, 15x the GDP, and 100x the stock market and VC funding depth.

This could start to change if present US hostility towards all things foreign results in a shift in investment and migration.

Re: No science, no startups: The innovation engine we're switching off

#76

There's something odd in this argument. If you come at it from a Canadian perspective Canada seriously spent on neural network computer science when almost no one else did (many in AI considered the entire thing discredited and impossible), now the (financial) gains from that are almost entirely in a foreign country. The US science establishment was all about buying and utilizing Russian rocket engines until he-that-…

How's China doing? They seem to have a lot of research going on that feeds into their manufacturing fairly quickly from the papers I hear about

Notably China is a big country and Canada is a small country. If there is some innovation that is going to improve productivity globally by %X the amount of benefit that goes to China is always going to be bigger than the benefit that goes to Canada.

Re: No science, no startups: The innovation engine we're switching off

#77
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not even clear that the premise is true. There's lots of 'research' done in the big tech companies. The biggest reason why companies don't seek to emulate "Dupont, Bell Labs, IBM, AT&T, Xerox, Kodak, GE", is probably that it reads like a list of textbox examples of "companies that failed to execute on their research findings", so clearly there was something wrong with this approach.

The bigger problem today is that there is simply nothing more left to research. Everything that is being worked on are at most optimizations, which allways have a dollar spent vs dollar returned amount on them.

that patently ridiculous, we're just getting started

Re: No science, no startups: The innovation engine we're switching off

#79
> Countries that neglect science become dependent on those that don’t. U.S. post-WWII dominance came from basic science investments (OSRD, NSF, NIH, DOE labs). After WWII ended, the UK slashed science investment which allowed the U.S. to commercialize the British inventions made during the war.

> The Soviet Union’s collapse partly reflected failure to convert science into sustained innovation, during the same time that U.S. universities, startups and venture capital created Silicon Valley. Long-term military and economic advantage (nuclear weapons, GPS, AI) trace back to scientific research ecosystems.

The US has an extremely entrepreneurial culture, which is why Americans are so good at building innovative businesses. In the UK, money is seen as grubby and the class system has consistently placed barriers between those with ideas and those with money. Similarly, the Soviet Union struggled to make use of its innovators due to the strictures of central planning. Australia punches well above its weight in scientific research but is unwilling to engage in any economic activity other than digging rocks out of the ground and selling them to China.

So the idea that scientific research is a limiting factor in economic growth is not general; it's specific to the US and countries with that same entrepreneurial culture.

Re: No science, no startups: The innovation engine we're switching off

#80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you think they don’t teach critical thinking?

Because whilst universities claim they do that, there is no evidence to suggest it is true. People genuinely trained in critical thinking would be highly skeptical of this claim. For example, - What exactly is the definition of critical thinking they are using? - Which part of a {computer science, art history, etc} course teaches this? - How is it assessed? - If it's a teachable skill, why are there no qualifications…

That's an interesting perspective. Thanks for sharing. If you had free rein of an engineering school in a university system, how would you re-design curriculum to address your concerns and establish proof of teaching critical thinking?
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