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After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

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Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#71

Post by mikert89 »

ff2400t wrote: post #60
mikert89 wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

anyone mentioning a bubble is underestimating the gravity of whats going on

I think you aren't understanding the meaning of the world bubble here. No one can deny the impact LLM can have but it still has limits. And the term bubble is used here as an economic phenomenon. This is for the money that openai is planning on spending which they don't have. So much money is being l poured here, but most users won't pay the outrageous sums of money that will actually be needed for these LLM to run,…

the real innovation is that neural networks are generalized learning machines. LLMs are neural networks on human language. The implications of world models + LLMs will take them farther

Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#72

Post by maxglute »

mikert89 wrote: post #12
softwaredoug wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can have a bubble, and still have profound impact from AI. See also the dotcom boom.

who cares about a bubble? we are on the cusp of intelligent machines. The implications will last for hundreds of years, maybe impact the trajectory of humanity

Bubble burst means current technical AI approach economic deadend, if the most resourced tech companies in the world can't afford to maintain AI improvment then it's probably not going to happen because public likely isn't going to let state spend $$$$ in lieu of services on sovereign Ai projects that will make them unemployed.

Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#73

Post by fruitworks »

bigyabai wrote: post #28
mikert89 wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

who cares about a bubble? we are on the cusp of intelligent machines. The implications will last for hundreds of years, maybe impact the trajectory of humanity

> we are on the cusp of intelligent machines. Extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence. We have machines that talk , which is corollary to nothing.

Sometimes I wonder if reason is partially a product of manipulating language.

Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#74

Post by dcminter »

mikert89 wrote: post #62
elorant wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Speech to text and vice versa exists for over a decade. Where's the life altering application from that?

[flagged]

> this is not an intellectually honest claim

Don't do that, it's not cool.

> Take [...] a step further, and imagine the systems in 2035

How about imagining AI slop multiplied by 10 years. How bad is this going to get?

It's cool that you're excited, but you need a bit more than enthusiasm to make the case.

Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#76

Post by mikert89 »

rootusrootus wrote: post #26
mjhay wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even by HN standards, this is just an incredible comment. You’d think it’s satire, but I doubt it.

One of the reasons I like to swing by HN on the weekend is that the flavor of the comments is a lot spicier. For better or worse.

see i was thinking my comments didnt go far enough in describing what we are witnessing

Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#77

Post by Legend2440 »

Starlevel004 wrote: post #15
mikert89 wrote: post #4

I cant believe people still arent grasping the profound implications of computers that can talk and make decisions.

The self checkout machines at the supermarket can talk and make decisions. I don't see them revolutionising the world.

1. That’s not remotely the same, and you know it.

2. The category of computerized machines (of which self checkouts are one example) has absolutely revolutionized the world. Computerization is the defining technology of the last twenty years.

Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#78

Post by logicchains »

rjh29 wrote: post #46
scellus wrote: post #17

He writes as if only datacenters and network equipment remain after the AI bubble bursts. Like there won't be any AI models anymore, nothing left after the big training runs and trillion-dollar R&D, and no inference served.

Who's going to pay to run those models? They are currently running at a huge loss.

They're not running at a loss. Training runs at a loss, but the models are profitable to serve if you don't need to continuously train new models.

Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#79

Post by alganet »

forgotusername6 wrote: post #43
Gattopardo wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My dude, it's literally just fancy autocomplete and isn't intelligent at all.

What makes you so sure that you aren't just fancy autocomplete?

I am sure that if I am a fancy auto-complete, I'm way fancier than LLMs. A whole different category of fancy way above their league. Not just me, but any living human is.

Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#80

Post by azeirah »

Juliate wrote: post #69
antonvs wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I run models for coding on my own machines. They’re a trivial expense compared to what I earn from the work I do. The “at a loss” scenario comes from (1) training costs and (2) companies selling tokens below market to get market share. Neither of those imply that people won’t run models in future. Training new frontier-class models could potentially become an issue, but even that seems unlikely given what these model…

Ok, running them locally, that's definitely a thing. But then, without this huge financial and tech bubble that's driven by these huge companies: 1/ will those models evolve, or new models appear, for a fraction of the cost of building them today? 2/ will GPU (or their replacement) also cost a fraction of what they cost today, so that they are still integrated in end-user processors, so that those model can run effic…

Given the popularity and activity and pace of innovation seen on /r/LocalLLaMa, I do think models will keep improving. Likely not at the same pace as they are today, but those people love tinkering but it's mostly enthusiasts with a budget for a fancy setup in a garage, independent researchers and smaller businesses doing research there.

These people won't sit still and models will keep getting better as well as cheaper to run.

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