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The bubble pops when Apple releases an iPhone that runs a good enough for most things LLM locally. At that point cloud hardware investments will plateau (unless some new GPU melting use case comes out). Investors will move from nvidia, AMD into Apple.
As a local LLM enthusiast, I can tell you that it's useless for most real work - even on desktop form factors. Phones catching up is ever farther out.
It’s quite a good strategy to counteract the prevailing sense that “No one ever got fired for buying Nvidia GPUs”. AMD just doesn’t know how to compete with Nvidia. The best it can do is charge 10% less and release GPUs about the same level of underwhelming performance as Nvidia. Maybe they wouldn’t need to sell equity if they made better faster cheaper products than Nvidia. But Lisa Su can’t bring herself to compete…
OpenAI now has an option to buy 10% of AMD for $0.01 per share, subject to certain milestones. Basically, AMD is giving up equity to buy its way into the AI market. It's fantastic news , because OpenAI and AMD will now work together to develop decent software libraries for AI on AMD chips. We all want an alternative to Nvidia and cuda. This partnership could deliver it in the not too distant future.
It's only fantastic news if there is no bubble. If there is a bubble, AMD just gave away $160m for nothing in return.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think at least part of the 10% is if AMD stock reaches 600. Not that I disagree that this looks weird. Why was that needed to be offered? Couldn't they just buy the AMD chips if they're good enough? Or Nvidia is it's better? I also don't get why there commiting so much to the future, are they sure of the quality of the products and their demand that much?
>Couldn't they just buy the AMD chips if they're good enough? OpenAI would presumably need to raise money to buy the AMD chips. The "genius" of this deal is that AMD is "giving away" 10% of the company (at $0.01/share) to OpenAI. Then OpenAI will presumably turn around and sell those shares (or borrow against them) to raise enough money to purchase the AMD GPUs.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's only fantastic news if there is no bubble. If there is a bubble, AMD just gave away $160m for nothing in return.
I think OpenAI will try and continue this elsewhere, which would be pretty worrying. It lets them not give up any equity, just use their name to pump stocks and earn capital.
Feels like we're living through a Michael Lewis book. OpenAI estimate that it takes around $50bn to stand up a 1GW datacenter. This deal is 6GW worth of chips. Their projected revenues out to YE-2029 are $300bn. OpenAI will spend a decades worth of revenues building & filling the datacenters to house these chips, before accounting for their AI research, training, or inference spend.
Like best possible scenario is OpenAI merely optioning from literally everybody because they don't think they have a shot at getting any capacity otherwise. There is just no possible way that they can actually afford all of the buildouts. For that matter, there's not even any possible way for all of these buildouts to actually be completed.
> As part of the arrangement, AMD issued a warrant that gives OpenAI the ability to buy up to 160 million shares of AMD for 1 cent each over the course of the chips deal. The warrant vests in tranches based on milestones that the two companies have agreed on. This is money printing, just in the private sector. We know what happens when governments do it, and it's not good.
I'm very ignorant, will AMD shares get diluted? or how is it money printing?
As a comparison of stocks over the last 5-years:
1-Year 5-Year Market Cap (Today)
------ ------ ---------
AMD 20% 150% $0.35T
NVIDIA 50% 1,250% $4.5T
So a healthy portion of AMD overall 5-years gain are just from this announcement today.
And OpenAI ($0.50T) is currently valued more than AMD ($0.35T) itself.
they're just printing money for each other at this point
The title didn't make this obvious (at least not to me) but it's OpenAI that has the option to buy 10% of AMD. Not the other way around. In case you're wondering how OpenAI could afford to buy 10% of AMD while they are hemorrhaging money -- the terms of the deal allows OpenAI to buy 160 million shares at 1 cents a share. I could be thinking about this the wrong way but it appears that AMD is basically subsidizing the…
Obviously, for the stock price to go up money needs to come from somewhere. It makes sense that this deal would lower the NVidia stock price, so technically it will be NVidia investors waiting too long to respond to this news that will be paying for this. A tax on the mistaken believe that NVidia has an monopoly on putting transitions in a particular configuration which they obviously don't. The rest is just momentum and this would kill that.
The real winners will be TSMC and ASML