Live data from Hacker News

Generative AI as Seniority-Biased Technological Change

papers.ssrn.com

71–80 of 197 posts

Re: Generative AI as Seniority-Biased Technological Change

#71
post #2

New Harvard's study (62M workers, 285k firms) shows firms adopting generative AI cut junior hiring sharply while continuing to grow senior roles — eroding the bottom rungs of career ladders and reshaping how careers start.

What was the incentive for companies to train juniors into seniors in the past, post job-hopping era? Curious to know if that incentive has warped in the past two decades or so as someone who's starting their career now.

Re: Generative AI as Seniority-Biased Technological Change

#72
post #36

We had some marketing folks give us a company-wide demo of Chat GPT and some other Gen AI tools and showed us how cool it is and how quick they can make stylish and sophisticated pitch decks and marketing materials now. And the entire time I'm watching this I'm just thinking that they don't realize that they are only demonstrating the tools that are going to replace their own jobs. Kinda sad, really. Demand for soft…

but i guess to me the question is: if you're management, do you expect your workers to do more/work faster (like a TAS in a way)? or do you expect to replace your workers entirely?

I personally think we're still a ways from the latter...

Re: Generative AI as Seniority-Biased Technological Change

#73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you serious? How on earth are these people going to eat or pay rent for 10 years? As well, most companies would laugh you out the door if you were applying a senior role without any experience working in the role.

> Are you serious? No, I was being sarcastic.

Laugh all you want, for some people it’s more real than you think.

Re: Generative AI as Seniority-Biased Technological Change

#74

Today they're admitting AI is hollowing out entry-level jobs. The reality is that it can and will replace mid-level and eventually even quite senior jobs. Why? It's already doing a lot of the loadbearing work in those mid-level roles too now, it's just a bit awkward for management to admit it. One common current mode of work is people using AI to accomplish their work tasks very quickly, and then loafing a bit more w…

Lol this is so far from reality. Where have you actually seen this fella?

Im tired of reading all these claims with no primary evidence to support it.

Re: Generative AI as Seniority-Biased Technological Change

#76
> the largest effects in wholesale and retail trade

Hard for me to believe that AI in its current state is hollowing out junior shop assistant and salesperson roles. Either those jobs were already vulnerable to "dumb" touchscreen kiosks or they require emotional intelligence and embodied presence that LLMs lack.

Re: Generative AI as Seniority-Biased Technological Change

#77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is just not true. I have witnessed people who would have been called dabblers or tinkerers just a few years ago become actual developers by using cursor. They ask a few key questions when they get stuck about engineering best practices and really internalize them. They read the code they are producing and ask the assistant questions about their codebase. They are theorycrafting using AI then implementing and tes…

You're talking about people who put in a significant non-trivial effort to thoroughly understand the code produced by the AI. For them, AI was just one path to becoming proficient developers. They would have gotten there even before the AI boom. I was not talking about such highly-motivated people.

Yeah and when you account for the amount of investment that has gone into the current generation of LLMs... it makes zero financial sense.

Some people dont want to hear that, but...

Re: Generative AI as Seniority-Biased Technological Change

#78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While agentic coding can make you productive, it won't teach you to deeply understand the source code, algorithms, or APIs produced by AI. If you can't thoroughly audit any source code created by an AI agent, then you are definitely not a senior developer.

This is just not true. I have witnessed people who would have been called dabblers or tinkerers just a few years ago become actual developers by using cursor. They ask a few key questions when they get stuck about engineering best practices and really internalize them. They read the code they are producing and ask the assistant questions about their codebase. They are theorycrafting using AI then implementing and tes…

who are these mythical jr devs and where do i find them

i just want devs who actually read my pr comments instead of feeding them straight into an llm and resubmitting the pr

Re: Generative AI as Seniority-Biased Technological Change

#79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand how you want innovation and productivity in a world with rapidly increasing population. We need less and less people while producing more and more people. Where am I wrong?

I don't see developed countries to have a "rapidly increasing population" problem.

Practically the whole planet is experiencing population decline now. The poster you're replying to is basing his argument on an obsolete worldview.

Re: Generative AI as Seniority-Biased Technological Change

#80
post #2

New Harvard's study (62M workers, 285k firms) shows firms adopting generative AI cut junior hiring sharply while continuing to grow senior roles — eroding the bottom rungs of career ladders and reshaping how careers start.

In 10 years where do the senior dev's come from? Real question. Seems like with lower entry level jobs now, in 10 years there won't be seniors to hire.

Even if we grant this is going to be a problem, it makes no sense for any individual company to do anything about it. Why take on the cost of training a junior when they can bail in a few years? This is especially true if you're not a big tech company, which puts you at risk of having your junior-turned-senior employees poached by big tech.
Post reply on HN