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We're Joining OpenAI

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Re: We're Joining OpenAI

#71

Post by vineyardmike »

morkalork wrote: post #69
kridsdale3 wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Au contraire, based on their recent hires, they're just beginning their Facebook phase. Expect to see a lot of ads 2 years from now, and expect to see a LOT of money being made by the company a year after that. If they can maintain runway until then.

Who will pull the ads trigger first, OpenAI or Google I wonder. Whoever leads could lose a lot of users to the other, but they will soon follow.

Definitely OpenAI. They’re not profitable and their core product is expensive to serve. They also have the disadvantage that their better models and features (eg agents, research, CoT, etc) are more expensive, but are better hooks to prove utility to new users - fundamentally they need a method to cheapen the cost of serving free users better features. Google can afford to see how it shakes out and the impact to OpenAI.

OpenAI already exploring and experimenting with different ad modalities privately. They’re also have a much better brand, so they might be able to avoid too much churn of customers.

Re: We're Joining OpenAI

#72

Post by dbreunig »

ankit219 wrote: post #70
bobbiechen wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

(me again) and Drew Breunig just posted about the tensions of actually getting those ads in: https://www.dbreunig.com/2025/09/02/considering-ad-models-fo...

I like the thesis, (and probably not a fully informed opinion here), it's easier for openai like router to go the affiliate model than ads model. Router can determine how much a query is worth (eg: help plan a vacation is worth $50 vs say what is the capital of Australia as $0). This further informs how much compute to use, and this can lead to how much they get on affiliate fees if a link is clicked. Ads here are co…

Yeah, I agree. Almost mentioned in the post how I imagine an ad PM at OpenAI is jealous of an ad PM at Perplexity.

Re: We're Joining OpenAI

#73

Post by thorum »

eCa wrote: post #12

I don't use Alex so this doesn't affect me, but: > our plan is to continue serving you. How many months until OpenAI no longer feels it?

A coding agent that receives no updates will be useless very soon. In a few months they’ll tell you to switch to Codex CLI, and that will in fact be a good recommendation.

Re: We're Joining OpenAI

#74

Post by bloomca »

mcny wrote: post #57
HSO wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By the time this „golden“ ad free time is over in 1-2 years you should be able to run your own custom model locally

One possibility is that if they can manage to lower interest rates back to zero ish, we might see a hiring frenzy in machine learning/llm/genai, starving upstarts and free software of talent, slowing progress in custom local models? Or is this too pessimistic/ "out there" of a take that requires the stars to align just right?

Some models will still trickle down; hell, better/cheaper hardware should enable to run hefty models available today, and they seem to be already okay-ish with such queries.

Re: We're Joining OpenAI

#76

Post by dataexec »

HSO wrote: post #52
rhubarbtree wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We’re in a golden period where AI results are ad-free. One thing I’ve been doing is querying and storing results. For example, “what are the best books on X topic” for every topic I can possibly think that I may want to read about in the future. I’ve found the results to be amazing if you give a sufficiently detailed prompt. I have enough reading to see me through to exit.

By the time this „golden“ ad free time is over in 1-2 years you should be able to run your own custom model locally

I hope so but we could also be staying in an eternal state of FOMO as the proprietary models keep getting marginally (or a lot) better.

Re: We're Joining OpenAI

#78

Post by BobaFloutist »

ankit219 wrote: post #70
bobbiechen wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

(me again) and Drew Breunig just posted about the tensions of actually getting those ads in: https://www.dbreunig.com/2025/09/02/considering-ad-models-fo...

I like the thesis, (and probably not a fully informed opinion here), it's easier for openai like router to go the affiliate model than ads model. Router can determine how much a query is worth (eg: help plan a vacation is worth $50 vs say what is the capital of Australia as $0). This further informs how much compute to use, and this can lead to how much they get on affiliate fees if a link is clicked. Ads here are co…

Affiliate links are literally ads

Re: We're Joining OpenAI

#79

Post by kelvinjps10 »

morkalork wrote: post #69
kridsdale3 wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Au contraire, based on their recent hires, they're just beginning their Facebook phase. Expect to see a lot of ads 2 years from now, and expect to see a LOT of money being made by the company a year after that. If they can maintain runway until then.

Who will pull the ads trigger first, OpenAI or Google I wonder. Whoever leads could lose a lot of users to the other, but they will soon follow.

Gemini can already sponsor other Google products like Google docs sheets and youtube

Re: We're Joining OpenAI

#80

Post by [deleted] »

rhubarbtree wrote: post #48
bobbiechen wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wrote about this idea here: https://digitalseams.com/blog/the-ai-lifestyle-subsidy-is-go... Quick summary, I believe consumer AI experiences will feature ads because the profit opportunity is too large and company valuations depend on it. The hiring of Fidji Simo (ads at Facebook) at OpenAI + and just this week, Vijaye Raji/Statsig also point that way.

We’re in a golden period where AI results are ad-free. One thing I’ve been doing is querying and storing results. For example, “what are the best books on X topic” for every topic I can possibly think that I may want to read about in the future. I’ve found the results to be amazing if you give a sufficiently detailed prompt. I have enough reading to see me through to exit.

[deleted]
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