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Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

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Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#71

I kind of welcome this. Corporations panicking and being afraid to raise prices too much, and perhaps having to take a loss because they're essentially giving away product, is the LEAST that could happen to them after their naked and abusive COVID-era gouging. EDIT: You had years of corporate stimulus and ZIRP expanding M2, but the inflation floodgates only opened after a paltry return of a small fraction of the real…

"Companies" aren't going to suffer. Their workers and vendors will, and the whole thing cascades.

Their workers and vendors only suffer if their owners and executives decide to pass the buck of 1) poor management (not being able to set prices adequately), and 2) being in the socioeconomic class with the most influence on the most recent election. That class has expanded their wealth ludicrously during the last 3 presidential administrations, while most Americans have suffered. Any hits they take now are completely deserved, and nobly so if accepted willingly, in order to spare those lower on the ladder even more pain. (I am, of course, not holding my breath.)

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#72
Trump is even using Tariff threats to strong-arm other countries to retreat on their climate goals [1]. If the Supreme Court agrees that the Trump can do this then that means we have a dictator — one that will do way more harm than the one in North Korea.

[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/27/climate/trump-internation...

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#73
post #24

[flagged]

How do you come to that conclusion? It seems wildly inaccurate.

Because it's market/human psychology.

Reality is simply that industries are locking in tariff increase price expectations because they can (Wal Mart is even already increasing prices and the tariffs may not and have not yet even started impacting prices). It's just like how everyone started expecting a tip everywhere at all times at 25%, 35% rates during COVID and that not only has not disappear, it got even worse for a while before leveling off and the tip expectation is now north of 20% on average.

It's a common human behavior, a kind of ladder, the realization that "wow, I got away with all the previous increase rates, let's keep up the price increase rates since everyone has come to expect them".

Another example, car dealership premiums; they're still trying to push those and there is clearly a limited market and an unspoken agreement to keep them going across the dealerships. If people expect certain price increase rates, they have normalized those increases in their minds.

It's also why the fed has always "targeted 2% inflation" because it's a small amount that can be normalized over 12 months and you don't even notice it. But it's a steady rate that can be siphoned off the whole economy without people noticing the theft by fraud. You didn't complain about the fed stealing 2% of your wealth every single year, compounded all your life before they started stealing 5-12% for the last 5 years, did you? Sure, they can't get away with increased rates forever, lest the whole system collapse, but without someone/something forcing the hand, why should they stop. We are STILL hearing how the consumer is strong, while various revolving credit balances are increasing and people are just squandering future/other people's money, why would they care if they have to pay more, so why would sellers care not to increase prices if people are just willing and able to charge more.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#74
post #18

Now that I think about it, creating confusion and uncertainty is actually a pretty effective move if you want to play protectionism. Any "known" tariff would just be paid as far as still profitable.

Maybe. But if your goal is to incentivize more domestic manufacturing, putting tariffs on the raw materials to do that manufacturing and build new factories is pretty counterproductive.

[deleted]

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Soybean farmers are predicting a world of hurt as China continues to acquire from South America instead. “Overall, export sales of this fall’s (U.S.) soybean crop are down 81% from the five-year average,” Brasher reported. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2025/08/20/soybean-farme...

South America doesn't produce enough soy beans for them to replace America even if China bought every single ounce of soy. When it comes to soy, America has enormous leverage and China already accepted they're negotiating from a position of weakness.

Leverage? Soybeans are the number one US food export (historically mostly to China). To date, China has purchased zero bushels this year. This is with US soy being cheaper than the competition. Maybe China cannot replace 100% of their demand today, but they are showing a united front that their import numbers will be kept as low as possible.

  …Basse says soybean importers aren’t just snubbing U.S. soybeans. They are specifically being told by the Chinese government to not buy U.S. beans.

  “So, if you’re a Chinese importer or a Chinese crusher, you’ve been told by the government not to buy U.S. soybeans until they tell you to. This is how China works. Today the Chinese have a stronghold on buying United States soybeans, even though our prices are nearly $1 a bushel cheaper than what they’re buying in Brazil. This is the pressure that I believe the Chinese government is trying to apply on the Trump administration during a trade negotiation,”…
https://www.agweb.com/news/crops/soybeans/8-soybeans-thats-r...

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#76
post #3

This is how you know most economic theory is a total lie, if it wasn't they would just "price what people are willing to pay" and be forced to eat the loss. Is that cause copper bathtubs are a special item or are you just making up more rules after the fact to patch holes in your leaky theory.

Economic theory makes some unsubstantiated assumptions, like consumers have information needed to make decisions, and those decisions are rational. In the real world the market is determined by external events that consumers have no way to know.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#78

In NYC, for the first 6 months of 2025, 994 new private sector jobs were created [1]. During the same period last year, there were 66,000 new jobs created. Higher cost of doing business from tariffs has frozen hiring. With a frozen job market, there’s less revenue coming in. NYC is a leading indicator for the rest of the country. [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/13/nyregion/nyc-jobs.html

I’m curious whether it’s more the tariffs, or the uncertainty. No one knows what will happen on a day-to-day basis: the chaotic (and illegal) decision-making leaves everyone wondering what’s next.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#79
As well as big business, this is just shutting down or radically altering many small industries. FIlmmakers, authors/book publishers, musicians etc. are negatively incentivized to ship product to the US, so good luck if you are an American consumer with niche cultural hobbies or a specialized importer who does a lot of small-batch orders.
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