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The warning signs the AI bubble is about to burst

telegraph.co.uk

71–80 of 86 posts

Re: The warning signs the AI bubble is about to burst

#71

The fact that we’re talking about warning signs the bubble is about to burst indicates the bubble is not about to burst lol.

Lol, your kind of comment was also common in 2006-2007 when warnings about a housing bubble were brewing, no one can time it but the signs are always there in retrospect.

Re: The warning signs the AI bubble is about to burst

#72
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But it feels like it’s about to pop! It really is hard to stay objective as predictors all seem to point one way.

What predictors do you mean? I’m genuinely curious

What predictors do you mean? I’m genuinely curious

I don't think you're genuinely curious because the title of the article is literally "The warning signs the AI bubble is about to burst."

Re: The warning signs the AI bubble is about to burst

#73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly—it's going to be the same this time. That's how bubbles do. What I'm trying to express is that when people say "AI is a bubble," the don't understand that AI will actually survive that bubble, even if many "AI companies" do not.

I don't think so. Most companies that went under in the 90's bubble are definitely not doing well today. Lycos? The stuff that survived was 99% stuff that didn't have to rely on the bubble to begin with. MS or Oracle were doing fine even with the bubble bursting because their core business was not relying on it. But if the AI bubble burst, the AI shops are gonna go bye bye.

If you read my comment, I agree with you; the AI bubble is going to burst, and AI companies will go out of business. And yet, AI will be more important than ever 10-15 years from now.

Just because the bubble is going to burst does not mean the technology will go away. That didn't happen to the internet, and it won't happen to AI.

Re: The warning signs the AI bubble is about to burst

#74
Even if AGI never happens, the existing models are already incredibly useful. I’ve switched to OpenAI Plus plan and almost never use Google search anymore. I pay $10/mo for GitHub Copilot for coding. So search and coding use cases are already seeing big improvements. But this same thing needs to happen to pretty much every product. So I think in the worst case they can just divert all of the training resources to just inference and be just fine. Sure the insane valuation multiples will drop if that happens and they will be valued as any other SaaS business.

Re: The warning signs the AI bubble is about to burst

#75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is it will create a broader economic problem in the markets. The top 10 holdings for VTI, the "easy button" investment option. Are: NVIDIA, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Broadcom, Google, Tesla, Berkshire Hathaway. They represent a third of US market value, and 60% of them are heavily hooked into AI. A panic will be a decimation for NVIDIA, and that splash zone will be broad.

$RSP (equal weighted) solves that

Totally! You can also use something like VIG or VDADX if you're restricted in terms of offerings.

I personally account for that in my planning. But many folks have their money in 401k funds in generic broad market securities -- often with high fees on top of it!

Re: The warning signs the AI bubble is about to burst

#77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$RSP (equal weighted) solves that

Totally! You can also use something like VIG or VDADX if you're restricted in terms of offerings. I personally account for that in my planning. But many folks have their money in 401k funds in generic broad market securities -- often with high fees on top of it!

> You can also use something like VIG or VDADX if you're restricted in terms of offerings.

How is that? RSP and VIG look very different.

Re: The warning signs the AI bubble is about to burst

#78
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Totally! You can also use something like VIG or VDADX if you're restricted in terms of offerings. I personally account for that in my planning. But many folks have their money in 401k funds in generic broad market securities -- often with high fees on top of it!

> You can also use something like VIG or VDADX if you're restricted in terms of offerings. How is that? RSP and VIG look very different.

VIG omits some of the high flier growth stocks that pay no dividend.

Re: The warning signs the AI bubble is about to burst

#79
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You can also use something like VIG or VDADX if you're restricted in terms of offerings. How is that? RSP and VIG look very different.

VIG omits some of the high flier growth stocks that pay no dividend.

Ok so they sort of have something in common...but I'm not sure it's good advice to say one can be used to replace the other due to their very different overall strategies.

Re: The warning signs the AI bubble is about to burst

#80
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

VIG omits some of the high flier growth stocks that pay no dividend.

Ok so they sort of have something in common...but I'm not sure it's good advice to say one can be used to replace the other due to their very different overall strategies.

Fair. I should have qualified more clearly that I meant for retirement accounts where you have limited options.

RSP definitely performs better and doesn’t shut you out of the growth stocks.

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