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What could have been

coppolaemilio.com

71–80 of 127 posts

Re: What could have been

#71
> What could have been if instead of spending so much energy and resources on developing “AI features” we focused on making our existing technology better?

The implied answer to this question really just misunderstands the tradeoffs of the world. We had plenty of money and effort going into our technology before AI, and we got... B2B SaaS, mostly.

I don't disagree that the world would be better off if all of the money going into so many things (SaaS, crypto, social media, AI, etc.) was better allocated to things that made the world better, but in order for that to happen, we would have to be in a very different system of resource allocation than capitalism. The issue there is that capitalism has been absolutely core to the many, many advances in technology that have been hugely beneficial to society, and you if you want to allocate resources differently than the way capitalism does, you lose all of those benefits and probably end up worse off as a result (see the many failures of communism).

> So I ask: Why is adding AI the priority here? What could have been if the investment went into making these apps better?

> I’m not naive. What motivates people to include AI everywhere is the promise of profit. What motivates most AI startups or initiatives is just that. A promise.

I would honestly call this more arrogant than naive. Doesn't sound like OP has worked at any of the companies that make these apps, but he feels comfortable coming in here and presuming to know why they haven't spent their resources working on the things he thinks are most important.

He's saying that they're not fixing issues with core functionality but instead implementing AI because they want to make profit, but generally the sorts of very severe issues with core functionality that he's describing are pretty damaging to the revenue prospects of a company. I don't know if those issues are much less severe than he's describing or if there's something else going on with prioritization. I don't know if the whole AI implementation was competitive with fixing those - maybe it was just an intern given a project, and that's why it sucks.

I have no idea why they've prioritized the things they have, and neither does the author. But just deciding that they're not fixing the right things because they implemented an AI feature that he doesn't like is not a particularly valid leap of logic.

> Tech executives are robbing every investor blind.

They are not. Again, guy with a blog here is deciding that he knows more than the investors about the things they're investing in. Come on. The investors want AI! Whether that's right or wrong, it's ridiculous to suggest they're being robbed blind.

> Unfortunately, people making decisions (if there are any) only chase ghosts and short term profits. They don’t think that they are crippling their companies and dooming their long term profitability.

If there are any? Again, come on. And chasing short term profits? That is obviously and demonstrably incorrect - in the short term, Meta, Anthropic, OpenAI and everybody else is losing money on AI. In the long term, I'm going to trust that Mark Zuckerberg and Sam Altman, whether you like them or hate them, have a whole lot better idea of whether or not they're going to be profitable in the long term than the author.

This reads like somebody who's mad that the things he wants to be funded aren't being funded and is blaming it on the big technology of the day then trying to back into a justification for that blame.

Re: What could have been

#72
post #68

This is another genre of AI article that annoys me: The one where the author starts by agreeing with you that AI is a definitely a bubble, and we’re gonna just “know” that for the rest of the article, no argument necessary. I don’t feel like this article is trying to start a conversation, it wants to end the conversation so we can have dessert (aka, catastrophizing about the outcome of the thing “we know” is bad).

The basic assumption of the article is that there is a bubble. You want an entirely different article then about whether there is a bubble. You just don't like the conversation it's starting because you also disagree with its base assumption.

Re: What could have been

#73

I've been watching this my whole life. UML, SOA, Mongo, cloud, blockchain, now LLMs, probably 10 others in between. When tools are new there's a collective mania between VCs, execs, and engineers that this tool unlike literally every other one doesn't have trade offs that make it only an appropriate choice in some situations. Sometimes the trade offs aren't discoverable in the nascent stage, a lot of it is monkey-see…

The big difference is LLMs are as big as Social Media and Google in the pop culture, but with a promise of automation and job replacement. My 70 year parents use it every day for work and general stuff (with generally understanding the limitations), and they’re not even that tech savvy.

We haven’t mapped the hard limitations of LLMs yet but they’re energy bound like everything else. Their context capacity is a fraction of a human’s. What they’ll replace isn’t known yet. Probabilistic answers are unacceptable in many domains. They’re going to remain amazingly helpful for a certain class of tasks but marketing is way ahead of the engineering, again.

Re: What could have been

#74
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with LLMs as interoperability is they only work sub 100% of the time. Yes they help but the point of the article is what if we spent 100billion on APIs? We absolutely could build something way more interoperable and that’s 100% accurate. I think about code generation in this space a lot because I’ve been writing Gleam. The LSP code actions are incredible. There’s no “oh sorry I meant to do it the other wa…

If you gave me $100 billion to spend on API interoperability, knowing what I know today, I would spend that money inventing LLMs.

For $100 billion you could get public standards for APIs of all kinds implemented. I don’t think people understand just how much money that is. We’re talking solve extreme hunger and create international api standards afterwards money.

Re: What could have been

#75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Today I’ve compiled a few thousand classes of Javadocs in .978 second. I was so impressed, with a build over 2 minutes, each byte of code we write takes a second to execute, computing is actually lightening fast, just now when it’s awfully written. Time of executing bytecode << REST APIs << launching a full JVM for each file you want to compile << launching an LLM to call an API (each << is above x10).

The point is that you call the LLM to generate the code that lets you talk to the API, rather than writing that glue code yourself. Not that you call the LLM to talk to that API every time.

Exactly.

Re: What could have been

#76
post #68

This is another genre of AI article that annoys me: The one where the author starts by agreeing with you that AI is a definitely a bubble, and we’re gonna just “know” that for the rest of the article, no argument necessary. I don’t feel like this article is trying to start a conversation, it wants to end the conversation so we can have dessert (aka, catastrophizing about the outcome of the thing “we know” is bad).

The basic assumption of the article is that there is a bubble. You want an entirely different article then about whether there is a bubble. You just don't like the conversation it's starting because you also disagree with its base assumption.

> You just don't like the conversation it's starting because you also disagree with its base assumption.

Yes! That’s correct!

Re: What could have been

#77
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hacker News may be hosted as part of the Y Combinator website, but as the name suggests, the primary audience is hackers, not entrepreneurs. Your answer is good, but could have done without the condescension.

[flagged]

> most of us are hackers employed at startups

Bold claim, should we do a poll? How long should we let it run for, a week, two weeks?

Re: What could have been

#78
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you gave me $100 billion to spend on API interoperability, knowing what I know today, I would spend that money inventing LLMs.

For $100 billion you could get public standards for APIs of all kinds implemented. I don’t think people understand just how much money that is. We’re talking solve extreme hunger and create international api standards afterwards money.

Having lurked around in the edges of various standardization processes for 20+ years I don't think this is a problem that gets fixed by money.

You can spend an enormous amount of money building out a standard like SOAP which might then turn out not to have nearly as much long-running as the specification authors expected.

Re: What could have been

#79

is more maintenance work on old software really the highest aspiration of the tech industry?

What's the alternative? Churning out new software for the same use cases until Kingdom come because maintaining and improving older software is somehow icky?

Re: What could have been

#80
post #55

> What could have been if instead of spending so much energy and resources on developing “AI features” we focused on making our existing technology better? This is a bit like the question "what if we spent our time developing technology to help people rather than developing weapons for war?" The answer is that, the only reason you were able to get so many people working on the same thing at once, was because of the p…

> But, those homes wouldn't still be around and remembered millenia later. Yes, but they'd have homes. Who's to say if a massive monument is better than ten thousand happy families?

> Who's to say if a massive monument is better than ten thousand happy families?

It's not. The pyramids have never been of any use to anyone (except as a tourist attraction).

I'm referring merely to the magnitude of the project, not to whether it was good for mankind.

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