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AI is predominantly replacing outsourced, offshore workers

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Re: AI is predominantly replacing outsourced, offshore workers

#71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> AI and robotics nullify any comparative advantages low wage countries had If we project long term, could this mean that countries with the most capital to invest in AI and robotics (like the U.S.) could take back manufacturing dominance from countries with low wages (like China)?

China dominance in manufacturing, at least in tech, it's not based on cheap labor, but rather in skills, tooling and supply chain advantages. Tim Cook explains it better that I could ever do: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2wacXUrONUY

But it's not like China had the skills, tooling and supply chain to begin with....and it's not like the US suddenly stopped having all those things. There are reasons manufacturing moved out of the US and it was not "They are soooo much better at all the things over there!"

Tim Cook had a direct hand in this and know it and is now deflecting because it looks bad.

One of the comments on the video puts it way better than I could:

@cpaviolo : "He’s partially right, but when I began my career in the industry 30 years ago, the United States was full of highly skilled workers. I had the privilege of being mentored by individuals who had worked on the Space Shuttle program—brilliant professionals who could build anything. I’d like to remind Mr. Cook that during that time, Apple was manufacturing and selling computers made in the U.S., and doing so profitably.

Things began to change around 1996 with the rise of outsourcing. Countless shops were forced to close due to a sharp decline in business, and many of those exceptionally skilled workers had to find jobs in other industries. I remember one of my mentors, an incredibly talented tool and die maker, who ended up working as a bartender at the age of 64.

That generation of craftsmen has either retired or passed away, and the new generation hasn’t had the opportunity to learn those skills—largely because there are no longer places where such expertise is needed. On top of that, many American workers were required to train their Chinese replacements. Jobs weren’t stolen by China; they were handed over by American corporations, led by executives like Tim Cook, in pursuit of higher profits."

Re: AI is predominantly replacing outsourced, offshore workers

#72
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> IMHO this is going to be part of a broader trend where advancements in AI and robotics nullify any comparative advantages low wage countries had. Then why hasn't it yet? In fact, some lower-wage countries such as China are on the forefront of industrial automation? I think the bottom line is that many Western countries went out of their way to make manufacturing - automated or not - very expensive and time-consumin…

Hard to honestly say if China is low wage. On one hand, their wages have risen as the work force has shrunk now for a few years and tasks are being outsourced to other countries. On the other hand, their currency is pegged meaning that the earning power of the workers should be much higher so that they can afford the things they are making and transition to a consumer driven economy.

They are very much devaluing their currency. This is all the rage and I expect a currency devaluation race as the US tries to deal with crushing government liabilities.

Re: AI is predominantly replacing outsourced, offshore workers

#73
post #31

AI is going to force the issue of having to deal with the inequity in our economic system. And my belief is that this confrontation will be violent and many people are going to die. The fundamental issue is wealth inequality. The ultimate forms of wealth redistribution are war and revolution. I personally believe we are already beyond the point where electoral politics can solve this issue and a violent resolution is…

No war but class war.

Not sure how long it will take for a critical mass to realize that that we are in a class war, and placing the blame on anything else won't solve the problem.

IOW, I agree with you, I also think we are beyond the point where electoral politics can solve it - we have full regulatory capture by the wealthy now. When governments can force striking workers back to work, workers have zero power.

What I wonder though, is why do the wealthy allow this to persist? What's the end game here, when no one can afford to live, whose buying products and services? There'll be nothing to keep the economy going. The wealthy can end it at any time, so what is the real goal? To be the only ones left on earth?

Re: AI is predominantly replacing outsourced, offshore workers

#74
post #14

IMHO this is going to be part of a broader trend where advancements in AI and robotics nullify any comparative advantages low wage countries had.

I don’t fully agree. Yes, AI can be seen as a cheaper outsourcing option, but there’s also a plausible future where companies lean more on outsourced engineers who are good at wielding AI effectively, to replace domestic mid-level roles. In other words, instead of nullifying outsourcing, AI might actually amplify it by raising the leverage of offshore talent.

In a vacuum, sure. But when you take two resources of similar ability and amplify their output, it makes those resources closer in cost per output, and in turn amplifies the risk factors for choosing the cheaper by cost resource. So locality, availability, communication, culture, etc, become more important.

Re: AI is predominantly replacing outsourced, offshore workers

#75

I wonder if AI automation will even lead to a recession in total software engineering revenue. At my job, thanks to AI, we managed to rewrite one of our boxed vendor tools we were dissatisfied with, to an in-house solution. I'm sure the company we were ordering from misses the revenue. The SaaS industry is full of products whose value proposition is 'it's cheaper to buy the product from us than hire a guy who handles…

Historically imporvments in programmer productivity (e.g. via better languages, tooling and hardware) didn't correlate to a decrease in demand for programemrs, but quite the opposite.

Re: AI is predominantly replacing outsourced, offshore workers

#76
post #50
post #14

IMHO this is going to be part of a broader trend where advancements in AI and robotics nullify any comparative advantages low wage countries had.

> IMHO this is going to be part of a broader trend where advancements in AI and robotics nullify any comparative advantages low wage countries had. Then why hasn't it yet? In fact, some lower-wage countries such as China are on the forefront of industrial automation? I think the bottom line is that many Western countries went out of their way to make manufacturing - automated or not - very expensive and time-consumin…

> Then why hasn't it yet?

Because the current companies are behind the curve. Most of finance still runs on Excel. A lot of other things, too. AI doesn't add much to that. But the new wave of Tech-first companies now have the upper hand since the massive headcount is no longer such an advantage.

This is why Big Tech is doing layoffs. They are scared. But the traditional companies would need to redo the whole business and that is unlikely to happen. Not with the MBAs and Boomers running the board. So they are doing the old stupid things they know, like cutting costs by offshoring everything they can and abusing visas. They end up losing knowledgeable people who could've turned the ship around, the remaining employees become apathetic/lazy, and brand loyalty sinks to the bottom. See how S&P 500 - top 10 is flat or dumping.

Re: AI is predominantly replacing outsourced, offshore workers

#77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China dominance in manufacturing, at least in tech, it's not based on cheap labor, but rather in skills, tooling and supply chain advantages. Tim Cook explains it better that I could ever do: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2wacXUrONUY

But it's not like China had the skills, tooling and supply chain to begin with....and it's not like the US suddenly stopped having all those things. There are reasons manufacturing moved out of the US and it was not "They are soooo much better at all the things over there!" Tim Cook had a direct hand in this and know it and is now deflecting because it looks bad. One of the comments on the video puts it way better th…

> it was not "They are soooo much better at all the things over there!"

Though I think we should also disabuse ourselves of the idea that this can't ever be the case.

An obvious example that comes to mind is the US' inability to do anything cheaply anymore, like build city infrastructure.

Also, once you enumerate the reasons why something is happening somewhere but not in the US, you may have just explained how they are better de facto than the US. Even if it just cashes out into bureaucracy, nimbyism, politics, lack of will, and anything else that you wouldn't consider worker skillset. Those are just nation-level skillsets and products.

Re: AI is predominantly replacing outsourced, offshore workers

#78

AI is already so much better than 99% of customer support employees. It also improves brand reputation by actually paying attention to what customers are saying and responding in a timely manner, with expert-level knowledge, unlike typical customer service reps. I've used LLMs to help me fix Windows issues using pretty advanced methods, that MS employees would have just told me to either re-install Windows or send th…

Except AI support agents are only using content that is already available in support knowledge bases, making the entire exercise futile and redundant. But sure, they're eloquent while wasting your time.

Re: AI is predominantly replacing outsourced, offshore workers

#79

AI is already so much better than 99% of customer support employees. It also improves brand reputation by actually paying attention to what customers are saying and responding in a timely manner, with expert-level knowledge, unlike typical customer service reps. I've used LLMs to help me fix Windows issues using pretty advanced methods, that MS employees would have just told me to either re-install Windows or send th…

This is great but most customer support is actually designed as a “speed bump” for customers.

Cancel account- have them call someone.

Withdraw too much - make it a phone call.

Change their last name? - that would overwhelm our software, let’s have our operator do that after they call in.

Etc.

Re: AI is predominantly replacing outsourced, offshore workers

#80

> Despite $30–40 billion in enterprise investment into GenAI, this report uncovers a surprising result in that 95% of organizations are getting zero return. Oof

This is no different from the personal computer, and it is to be expected. The initial years of adopting new tech have no net return because it's investment . The money saved is offset by the cost of setting up the new tech. But then once the processes all get integrated and the cost of buying and building all the tech gets paid off, it turns into profit. Also, some companies adopt new tech better than others. Some d…

The document actually debunks this take:

> GenAI has been embedded in support, content creation, and analytics use cases, but few industries show the deep structural shifts associated with past general-purpose technologies such as new market leaders, disrupted business models, or measurable changes in customer behavior.

They are not seeing the structural "disruptions" that were present for previous technological shifts.

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