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Is the A.I. Boom Turning Into an A.I. Bubble?

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Re: Is the A.I. Boom Turning Into an A.I. Bubble?

#71

Post by MeIam »

it_citizen wrote: post #13

> The global pandemic will tank the stock market > War in Ukraine will tank the stock market > High interest rates will tank the stock market > Tariffs will tank the stock market > IA will tank the stock market All those statements made sense to me at the time. And I have no doubt that one of these days, someone will make a correct prediction. But who the hell know what and when. Diversify, be reasonable and be prepa…

- The pandemic did in fact tank the market - Wars never tank the market and they jack up the military industry so no one would have said that - High interest rates did tank the market once last year already and in the past because it provides for risk free gains - Tariffs did tank the market so Trump played the reversal games - Will AI tank the market? It will if it creates unemployment.

Diversifying does not stop the tanking. It will reduce the risk related to poor choices all at once

Re: Is the A.I. Boom Turning Into an A.I. Bubble?

#72

Post by orky56 »

crystal_revenge wrote: post #36
it_citizen wrote: post #13

> The global pandemic will tank the stock market > War in Ukraine will tank the stock market > High interest rates will tank the stock market > Tariffs will tank the stock market > IA will tank the stock market All those statements made sense to me at the time. And I have no doubt that one of these days, someone will make a correct prediction. But who the hell know what and when. Diversify, be reasonable and be prepa…

Yea, after the pandemic I've stopped making any predictions about the stock market and bubbles. It's clear we're living in an illusion, but I'm pretty sure there are enough people invested in that illusion that it won't stop until it is no longer physically possible to maintain. I'm increasing convinced that when whatever dream we're living in ends, it will end catastrophically, but I'm not even certain I'll live to…

It's less of an illusion but more that the reality is separating into two, one which we live and breathe as day-to-day working class/consumers and another that caters to the market makers of government & private sector.

Re: Is the A.I. Boom Turning Into an A.I. Bubble?

#73

Post by seanmcdirmid »

jraph wrote: post #70
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People have been predicting an AI winter ever since DNNs hit it big, and that was 2012/2013 or so. And then every year since 2015 they've been saying "this is the year the AI bubble will finally burst!" And then repeat that the next year. ChatGPT was just another big leap in a bunch of big leaps that occurred in the last 15 years. You are being disingenuous in pretending that people didn't see AI as being hyped befor…

AI was over-hyped. I remember how "AI" felt like marketing bullshit at the lab when I was there between 2015 and 2020. Generative AI took it at the next level though. There is no comparison. The meaning of AI has brutally changed. It used to refer to ML, deep learning and all these things. Now, it is a synonym of generative AI.

The original paper where they took wikipedia as a corpus and generated a character by character generator (the precursor to the token-based transformer stuff) came out in 2012 (I think?). It isn't unrelated to the AI that was hyped up then, it is and was a direct evolution of the same ML we were talking about today (Hinton was an author on that paper).

Re: Is the A.I. Boom Turning Into an A.I. Bubble?

#74

Post by jordanb »

it_citizen wrote: post #13

> The global pandemic will tank the stock market > War in Ukraine will tank the stock market > High interest rates will tank the stock market > Tariffs will tank the stock market > IA will tank the stock market All those statements made sense to me at the time. And I have no doubt that one of these days, someone will make a correct prediction. But who the hell know what and when. Diversify, be reasonable and be prepa…

One interpretation is that asset owners as a class have complete control in our system and they will always be made whole no matter what happens.

This may require extracting additional rents from consumers, from workers, from renters, from debtors (including the government) but whatever changes have to be made to protect asset holders will be made regardless of the cost. An example of this in action was the collapse of SV Bank where the rules of our federal deposit insurance program were rewritten on the fly to protect the depositors. Imagine having an insurance policy, incurring an uncovered loss, and then compelling the insurance company to retroactively rewrite your policy to cover the loss!

Re: Is the A.I. Boom Turning Into an A.I. Bubble?

#75

Post by orky56 »

hodgehog11 wrote: post #28
bcrosby95 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, the way I describe it is: rich people are rich and the money has to be put somewhere .

And rich people aren't getting richer through smarter investments, but by wealth accumulation on existing assets that people need.

That's why the first million is the hardest since it's working capital for most working folks. After that, it can stay invested and compound.

Re: Is the A.I. Boom Turning Into an A.I. Bubble?

#76

Post by ch4s3 »

wongarsu wrote: post #9
ch4s3 wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, I mean there's a chance they're wrong and some chance they'll eventually be right. At this point it's clearly impossible to say for sure what the outcome might be. There were plenty of people in 2005 saying there was a housing bubble in the making and plenty of evidence that they were wrong. Were they right but too early? Were they wrong on fundamentals but happened to have guessed right? We could be seeing som…

There were also people who said in 1999 that there was an unsustainable bubble of "internet" businesses. And they were right. The bubble burst, and the internet still went on to change the world No doubt there's a lot of stuff right now that's completely overvalued, and companies that try to do things that the technology just isn't ready for yet. Those will eventually be culled, either one by one or all at once in a…

This is essentially what I’m saying. More succinctly, you can be right or wrong about a macro trend but your correctness is probably more time-boxed than people expect.

Re: Is the A.I. Boom Turning Into an A.I. Bubble?

#77

Post by it_citizen »

koolba wrote: post #59
it_citizen wrote: post #13

> The global pandemic will tank the stock market > War in Ukraine will tank the stock market > High interest rates will tank the stock market > Tariffs will tank the stock market > IA will tank the stock market All those statements made sense to me at the time. And I have no doubt that one of these days, someone will make a correct prediction. But who the hell know what and when. Diversify, be reasonable and be prepa…

> Diversify, be reasonable and be prepared for it to happen someday. Indeed, but even with something like SPY, there’s quite the concentration in tech: Top 10 Holdings (37.99% of Total Assets) NVDA 8.07% MSFT 7.37% AAPL 5.77% AMZN 4.11% META 3.12% AVGO 2.57% GOOGL 2.08% GOOG 1.68% BRK-B 1.61% TSLA 1.61% Now that’s intentional as it’s market cap weighted. But the investing world is in for a rude awakening if things st…

I don't think putting all your net worth in S&P would be considered diversified.

With an MSCI world, those companies would drop to ~22% exposure. Throw a bit of real estate, more exposure to your home country if you are not in the US some real estate, some bonds and you can make it drop to <10%.

Re: Is the A.I. Boom Turning Into an A.I. Bubble?

#78

Post by gervwyk »

was cloud computing ever a bubble. yes. did it stabilize. sure. but its a powerful utility that shifted and created new value. the only speculation is where and by how much.

the rush of new tech is always confusing, new tools requires new skills and time to find its place in the world.

Re: Is the A.I. Boom Turning Into an A.I. Bubble?

#79

Post by jraph »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #73
jraph wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI was over-hyped. I remember how "AI" felt like marketing bullshit at the lab when I was there between 2015 and 2020. Generative AI took it at the next level though. There is no comparison. The meaning of AI has brutally changed. It used to refer to ML, deep learning and all these things. Now, it is a synonym of generative AI.

The original paper where they took wikipedia as a corpus and generated a character by character generator (the precursor to the token-based transformer stuff) came out in 2012 (I think?). It isn't unrelated to the AI that was hyped up then, it is and was a direct evolution of the same ML we were talking about today (Hinton was an author on that paper).

Yeah yeah, there was also SCIgen in 2005 (when 3 MIT students submitted a fake paper and got it accepted).

I believe the difference is scale. It's not just Wikipedia, it's the whole web. Billions and billions are burned (and it seems highly unsustainable, where previously, stuff was made to work in public labs - possibly with things like Grid5000, but that's nothing compared to what's training and running LLMs today). One fifth to one third of HN's front page is AI. The thing is mainstream and omnipresent (before 2022, that stuff was mostly people working in research and tech companies, the informed general public might have heard of ML).

Around 2015, we were there: https://xkcd.com/1425/ (explain xkcd says September 24, 2014)

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