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Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

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Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#71

Post by hearsathought »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #54
hearsathought wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Much of what was automated is physical labor which allowed workers to move into "service/intellectual" jobs. When tractors and dump trucks removed the need for masses of people to move dirt, it didn't create more jobs of moving dirt around since those jobs could also be tackled by more tractors and dump trucks. If AI is what all these "AI evangelicals" claim, then most intellectual jobs would be gone. And it won't cr…

Moving dirt around is an input into many other things. Because moving dirt around is now cheap, we now build a lot more and a lot better roads than we did when moving dirt had to be done with human / animal labor. That road system directly and indirectly created millions of jobs. Similarly, software is a crucial input to pretty much everything in modern society. More / better software would create tons of new jobs. I…

> we now build a lot more and a lot better roads than we did when moving dirt had to be done with human / animal labor.

Sure, with far less human labor. That's my point.

> That road system directly and indirectly created millions of jobs.

Yes. That's my point. It created millions of service/intellectual jobs. Or are you saying the highway system created more jobs for those who own shovels?

If people moved from physical to intellectual labor in the past century. What will people move into if intellectual work is mostly done by AI. Assuming that the AI the evangelicals promise comes to fruition.

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#72

Post by morkalork »

tcfhgj wrote: post #44
drdec wrote: post #36

Think about what happened when we got advances in agriculture. We have gone from something like 90% of people employed growing food to something in the single digits (I'm too lazy at the moment to get exact figures, but this is close enough for my point). Did all those advances in agriculture create jobs? I would say yes and no. For the specific industry the advances happened in? No, definitely not. There are way few…

what is this "something else" in this case?

I keep thinking of that investment disclaimer whenever people cite the - 100 year old - example of mechanization of agriculture: "Past performance is no guarantee of future results"

Anyways, if I put my cynnical hat on after looking at this: https://blog.waldrn.com/p/american-boys-have-become-less-sup...

The next generation of children is already being conditioned for women leaving the workplace and society reverting to a pre-WW2 social structure. That's a solution. Jobs are lost forever, women are out of the workforce and the number of workers is halved. We all live in a trad-conservative paradise.

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#73

Post by hooverd »

thatguy0900 wrote: post #8
hooverd wrote: post #6

Does this Ex Google Exec have an interest in an AI company of his own?

I'm not sure he would say this if he did

he does, emma dot love, I swear some of this is FOMO marketing. get on the AI train now!!!

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#74

Post by pjmlp »

dev_l1x_be wrote: post #34
stego-tech wrote: post #30

It’s what us doomers have been saying all along: Even if we’re wrong and these LLMs can replace all or most professional jobs, it won’t create new jobs to replace the lost ones because the AI can replace most labor . For a global economy built on consumers spending money on goods and services, this is a death spiral where fewer jobs mean fewer consumers, which weakens demand, which lowers revenues (corporate and tax…

Luckily replacement is not happening in real life scenarios. AI makes us faster, sure, replaces us? I don't see that happening any time soon. This is a pipe dream for Silicon Valley.

I can tell some companies are already done with digital agencies for asset creation and translations, now that CMS are adding AI based content generation.

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#75

Post by Rumudiez »

bombcar wrote: post #33
throwaway29303 wrote: post #13

Can someone, more informed than me, about the job landscape, name these jobs people keep claiming AI is creating? Thank you in advance.

The big new job is "AI slop shit sorter" but we'll find inventive names for it.

Macrodata refinement

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#76

Post by glimshe »

pjmlp wrote: post #69
BurningFrog wrote: post #49

As a Software Engineer, Gawdat has no expertise in job creation. If an Economist said the same, I'd pay more attention. It's very counterintuitive, but for 250 years tech has constantly eliminated jobs, while unemployment rates have stayed the same. People have always predicted this would lead to mass unemployment, they've always been wrong, and yet they've kept predicting it. One way to explain it is that unemployed…

Like in Detroit, and Germany's Ruhrgebiet? Two examples out of plenty others, where people had to move out as means of survival.

Are you saying that we can't tell people whose jobs were created by technology (cars destroying the jobs of carriage makers elsewhere) that they jobs were affected by technology?

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#77

Post by nerevarthelame »

The full interview this comes from is off the rails. Gawdat says we'll have AGI by 2026 at the absolute latest, and that we will have artificial super intelligence in the immediate future. He guarantees that after destroying jobs, within 15 years we will be in a "utopia" controlled by AI. It's an absurd level of confidence for an extremely bold prediction.

In his last interview from this series in 2023, Gawdat said that LLMs are "alive in every possible way," have a "very deep consciousness," are "definitely aware," and "feel emotions."

His current endeavors involve an unlaunched combination LLM relationship coach and dating site (matchmaking humans with humans, not with LLMs, as far as I can tell).

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#78

Post by BurningFrog »

tcfhgj wrote: post #44
drdec wrote: post #36

Think about what happened when we got advances in agriculture. We have gone from something like 90% of people employed growing food to something in the single digits (I'm too lazy at the moment to get exact figures, but this is close enough for my point). Did all those advances in agriculture create jobs? I would say yes and no. For the specific industry the advances happened in? No, definitely not. There are way few…

what is this "something else" in this case?

You never know beforehand.

Before they existed, few would have believed the disappearing jobs would be replaced by web designers, uber drivers, youtubers, drone pilots etc.

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#79

Post by hooverd »

ivape wrote: post #64

Software industry needs a healthy shake out anyway. Too many people came in for the money. The current shake out involves either stunting people inside vibe coding such that they are functionally retarded, or straight up leave them long-term unemployed. Honestly, the only reason anyone would stick around is because this is all they know or like. I would not fuck around with this career if you ain’t about that life. B…

developers hate project managers because they force them to deliver instead of forever being nerd sniped

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#80

Post by pjmlp »

glimshe wrote: post #76
pjmlp wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like in Detroit, and Germany's Ruhrgebiet? Two examples out of plenty others, where people had to move out as means of survival.

Are you saying that we can't tell people whose jobs were created by technology (cars destroying the jobs of carriage makers elsewhere) that they jobs were affected by technology?

I am saying people often overlook the destiny of those affected by technology changes, in name of capitalism.
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