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Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back 'decades'

theguardian.com

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Re: Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back 'decades'

#71

Post by ars »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #2

“Researchers say the satellites themselves are operating normally and do not appear to have suffered any errors that would physically prevent the data from continuing to be collected and distributed, so the abrupt data halt might have been an intentional decision.” Wait, the U.S. aren’t even going to try selling the satellites? We’re just scrapping them?

This story is NOT TRUE.

There is one operating satellite in this constellation, and congress voted to shut down the program in 2015.

The DMSP program was discontinued in 2015 by a vote in congress[1]. Virtually every working stallelite in this program has failed. As best as I can tell there's just a single working one specifically NOAA-19[2].

Instead the program has switched to JPSS[3] which is part of GEOSS[4].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_Meteorological_Satelli... (scroll up slightly)

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NOAA-19

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Polar_Satellite_System

[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Earth_Observation_Syste...

Re: Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back 'decades'

#72

Post by jonwachob91 »

deadbabe wrote: post #42
jonwachob91 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not at all how insurance companies price risk. Unknown risk is more risk, and more risk is more expensive. Therefore, unknown hurricane data is more risky and thus more expensive. If you know your car's engine is going to need replaced after exactly 100,000 miles, you know to save up for a new engine or a new car - and you know how long you have to save, so you can precisely set aside an appropriate figure eve…

Hurricane risk has been grossly exaggerated for years. Every year people say it will be the end of Florida as we know it. But those promised hurricanes never come. The worst is some flooding and damage at coastal areas, but it’s always anti-climactic. The real reason insurance is high is because of fraudulent claim risk. Hurricanes themselves are more or less a solved problem in Florida. That data is useless.

I'm from Florida - born and raised. I've never once heard anyone call any hurricane "the end of Florida as we know it". What I have heard, and seen, is extreme damages caused to homes and cars even hundreds of miles away from the eye of the storm.

In 2022, Hurricane Ian caused extreme flooding in the Orlando-region, including in areas that have never suffered from hurricane flooding before. For me personally, all 3 cars parked at my house were total losses b/c of the flood damage.

The extreme and extensive damages in the Appalachian region last fall is another great example of hurricane risk not being "grossly exaggerated".

Re: Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back 'decades'

#73

Post by ars »

softwaredoug wrote: post #57

The problem of important projects surviving political change is a tough one. A lot of these important projects have a single point of failure - who is the president every four years. I wonder how we build institutions and resources resilient to that? I realize privatization is an ugly word, but could some of this stuff be provided by the private sector? Can we make it possible to fund initiatives in a multinational m…

This project was actually shut down in 2015.

Re: Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back 'decades'

#74

Post by buttercraft »

deadbabe wrote: post #64
counters wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Hurricane risk has been grossly exaggerated for years Year-over-year, economic impacts and disruptions due to tropical cyclones are dramatically rising. Most of this is an exposure issue. But long-tail events - like Andrew's utter devastation of Homestead in 1992 or Katrina's unique confluence of storm surge in urban/suburban parishes in LA - can and do happen. One day, there will be another Galveston or Homestead.

There won’t be another Andrew because the building codes were changed so that all new construction must withstand category 5 storm force, which when Andrew came around was not a requirement. Over time, there is a natural selection that occurs where destroyed buildings are replaced with stronger buildings with stricter codes.

What about the flooding?

Re: Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back 'decades'

#75

Post by ars »

Larrikin wrote: post #32
schiffern wrote: post #19

>The loss of DMSP comes as Noaa’s weather and climate monitoring services have become critically understaffed this year as Donald Trump’s so-called “department of government efficiency” (Doge) initiative has instilled draconian cuts to federal environmental programs. Translation: "We can't actually say this was DOGE, so we're going to imply it using emotionally charged words, and 90% of folks with bad media literacy…

[flagged]

DOGE did not exist in 2015. This project was shut down in 2015.

Re: Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back 'decades'

#76

Post by ars »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #28
schiffern wrote: post #19

>The loss of DMSP comes as Noaa’s weather and climate monitoring services have become critically understaffed this year as Donald Trump’s so-called “department of government efficiency” (Doge) initiative has instilled draconian cuts to federal environmental programs. Translation: "We can't actually say this was DOGE, so we're going to imply it using emotionally charged words, and 90% of folks with bad media literacy…

> We can't actually say this was DOGE The article is saying it was DOGE. DOGE directly attacked our hurricane-forecasting capacity [1]. OMB, i.e. Vought, continues that attack [2]. Given the top three states by hurricane risk voted for Trump in ‘24 [3][4] this should make for an entertaining hurricane season. (Particularly if both a red and blue state get hit and request federal assistance.) [1] https://apnews.com/ar…

> The article is saying it was DOGE

Yah, but it's the guardian. They aren't exactly reliable.

For it to be DOGE would require a time machine, because this project was shut down in 2015.

Re: Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back 'decades'

#77

Post by ars »

Animats wrote: post #5

It's part of the Administration's war on ... Florida?

This is such a bad article. They shut down this specific program in 2015, and switched to JPSS instead.

There is no war on anyone, and this has nothing to do with Trump, DOGS, or Climate change. Rather there were too many satellite failures, leaving just a single operating one in orbit.

Re: Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back 'decades'

#78

Post by mh- »

schiffern wrote: post #33
lynndotpy wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your premise that they're "lying" is unsubstantiated. Your comments read only like dress around the "fake news" bit.

Before you claim there's nothing happening and The Guardian didn't mean it, check social media comments elsewhere to see how many people misinterpret this news item into "DOGE/Elon did it." I would bet you, but that money's too easy. :) Again, this exact conversation is the genius behind 'lying _without lying_ .' You can always claim in high-literacy communities like HN that no, nobody would ever be silly enough misr…

> high-literacy communities like HN [..] low-literacy communities like facebook and reddit

I see this sentiment a lot lately, and I see your HN join date is similar to mine. HN is more mainstream than it used to be, for better or worse. There is a lot more overlap between commenters on HN and Reddit nowadays, especially in certain categories of subreddits.

Personally, I lament the web being a high-literacy community.

Re: Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back 'decades'

#80

Post by Buttons840 »

mnky9800n wrote: post #8
toomuchtodo wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The intent is to disable the capability to ignore the data. If you allow access to someone else, you're not preventing the data capture and dissemination. If the data shows hurricanes are intensifying in strength due to climate change, and you no longer capture the data, you can say with a straight face "No it isn't and you can't prove it." How large systems with exposure to these places (insurance, capital markets)…

I think it’s even more nefarious than that. They can attack other countries that claim intensifying climate and weather scenarios by saying their data is biased while claiming to have the best data in the world but not share for national security reasons. While this may seem like something unbelievable to you or me it is easily eaten up by their supporters who love propaganda. Like, my republican parents are convince…

> while claiming to have the best data in the world but not share for national security reasons

"The getaway car was green."

"No it wasn't!"

"What color was it then?"

"I don't know what color it was!"

...

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