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Why don't Americans trust experts? Just ask a paranormal investigator

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Re: Why don't Americans trust experts? Just ask a paranormal investigator

#71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, they aren't "all" subject to licensing rules. That's why the specific industries do matter. Can you share some examples of these doctors? AFAIK the only doctors who lost their licenses are those who created fake medical documentation or who shared verifiably false medical information. Not for "disagreeing" with the government stance on vaccines. I don't know if you lived in a different timeline than me, but I rem…

I'm not going to get into the weeds about COVID because you said: > the things these systems "say" are emergent phenomena ... Consensus was overwhelmingly on one side ... [those who disagree] jeopardize their license Rephrased, it's not happening and it's good that it's happening. Pick your side: either you want agreement in the healthcare system to be trusted because it's the result of many independent decisions poi…

Wait wait, can you tell me what was actually inside the [ ellipsis ] that you substituted out?

Arguing in bad faith is one thing, but I suspect you might even be tricking yourself!

Re: Why don't Americans trust experts? Just ask a paranormal investigator

#72
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Dude, I agree! You are missing the point. I know it was a fringe theory. But that is my point. We are talking about losing faith in experts here. Not my beliefs. "Experts" and I use that term loosely, predicted a global cooling. It was not all of them, but when a few cry wolf and the press run with it, then people start dis-trusting "experts" even those that could be correct. You keep harping on my beliefs, but I hav…

Okay then, apply the "you" to "one who your comments ring true to." I understand the dynamic you're pointing to, but it's simply not something that's solvable from the institutional/scientific-community side. We cannot allow institutions to actually control media, nor can we allow science to "go private." The responsibility, which you and I both should reaffirm, is that individuals need to better manage their own inf…

sorry, you are missing the point on the first one. I gave my opinion on what is affecting the situation. I used simple examples that did not apply to me. Sorry.

As for solutions? What about ramifications for any media that cannot backup what it says? What about people being held responsible for what they spread?

Re: Why don't Americans trust experts? Just ask a paranormal investigator

#73
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Okay then, apply the "you" to "one who your comments ring true to." I understand the dynamic you're pointing to, but it's simply not something that's solvable from the institutional/scientific-community side. We cannot allow institutions to actually control media, nor can we allow science to "go private." The responsibility, which you and I both should reaffirm, is that individuals need to better manage their own inf…

sorry, you are missing the point on the first one. I gave my opinion on what is affecting the situation. I used simple examples that did not apply to me. Sorry. As for solutions? What about ramifications for any media that cannot backup what it says? What about people being held responsible for what they spread?

Apologies for my misunderstanding!

> As for solutions? What about ramifications for any media that cannot backup what it says? What about people being held responsible for what they spread?

I mean... effectively not possible in the US (First Amendment). Gnarly situation as the cost of producing bullshit plummets to zero, or goes negative since you can earn money from it, while the cost to find and publish truth continues to rise.

Re: Why don't Americans trust experts? Just ask a paranormal investigator

#74
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"I am old enough to remember the "ice age" that we were going to enter." I'm nearly 60 and I don't ever remember anyone talking about an imminent ice age - given my fondness for skiing when I was younger I'm sure I would have noticed.

Surprising. I'm 54 and the coming ice age was pretty widely published in my childhood. Lenard Nimoy had a movie about it, it was in Newsweek etc (and before you laugh, Newsweek was "real news" back in those days and my parents had a mail subscription). I remember being extremely worried about it as a child and thinking "I am the last generation to know civilization as it has been before the world freezes over!" It pr…

There was one Newsweek article about it, and the Leonard Nimoy movie you are talking about is most likely “In Search Of…”, which also covered Bigfoot, UFOs, and the Bermuda Triangle.

Re: Why don't Americans trust experts? Just ask a paranormal investigator

#75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> you have evidence that Fauci knew distance played no role in infection rates, or that a distance other than 6 feet was better, and put out information suggesting 6 feet was correct anyway. There are three options: 1. Fauci knew the correct answer to some degree of accuracy and picked a rounded off version. 2. He didn't know the correct answer but thought he did. 3. Fauci didn't know the correct answer, was aware he…

It never takes long to get from "I need to be trusted with the facts!" to demonstrating just gobsmacking levels of willful ignorance. > Social distancing had no visible effect anywhere it was tried. > Our search identified 172 observational studies across 16 countries and six continents, with no randomised controlled trials and 44 relevant comparative studies in health-care and non-health-care settings (n=25 697 pati…

Such papers aren't worth much. For example, that meta-review claims masks work. Some other scientists did a different meta-review (the A122 Cochrane Review) that concluded the opposite (strictly speaking, that there was no useful evidence masks worked). If you dig into the details of why they disagree, you'll find none of the studies claiming this stuff works are scientifically valid whilst the Cochrane meta-review is very careful. Real-world reliable evidence > models.

So what happened: activists went directly to the head of Cochrane and demanded the review be disowned, which it was, despite it having been signed off on by the org previously and there being no scientific problems identified with the study. That's how they manufacture consensus in the healthcare system: top down orders from corrupt leaders who suppress beliefs and evidence that makes them look bad. They do this because it works. After all, look at this thread. People say, look at all the evidence! Look at the consensus! They can't all be wrong!

Yet a system that concludes both yes and no simultaneously isn't worth anything. The institutions of science failed during COVID, and frankly are failing most of the time hence the replication crisis. It's not specific to masks or social distancing. We can play that game for any claim you want to make about COVID, or many other topics. Science is broken.

> explain ... evidence that standing close to someone is equal risk to standing further away from them?

There are two components to this:

1. There's a threshold value beyond which a non-immune person becomes infected and that viral load in the exposure over that doesn't matter much. Given that viruses replicate that's not surprising.

2. That a sick person can emit infectious aerosols that can hang around in the air for long periods and travel long distances e.g. via air ducts.

The intuition you're working from is that SARS-CoV-2 viruses are created in the body, that they travel only in large droplets that fall to the ground quickly due to gravity, and that risk of infection is linear in dose. Thus, being far away from an infected person should reduce the risk linearly. That's the idea the "professionals" used to justify their policies, but it's based on a model that's too far from reality to be useful. It might work for a hypothetical spherical-cow type person standing on a perfectly empty and flat 2D plane, with no air movements. It doesn't work for real world scenarios with complex layouts and complex movements of people, which is why when you look at the behavior of the virus in real settings like the Diamond Princess or jet liners the results are completely different to what the model would predict.

Re: Why don't Americans trust experts? Just ask a paranormal investigator

#76
post #24
post #18

The logic follows that if experts are in charge, and experts are correct, then we will see positive outcomes from following expert advice. The US, and other parts of the world, has seen some decades where experts have been in positions of authority, but there have not necessarily been positive outcomes. Does this mean the experts are wrong? Nope. It’s for a variety of reasons, but perhaps the largest is that experts…

"A climate scientist knows best", lets talk about this one as it is a perfect example of lost trust. It is not corruption that destroys the message, but constantly being incorrect. Just a warning, I may agree with them overall, but they are constantly getting the numbers wrong. We have been 3 years away from the point of no return for the last 20 years. I am old enough to remember the "ice age" that we were going to…

Who is the 'cry wolf' here? A scientist that made an incorrect assertion that was rightly excoriated in the court of peer review? An underqualified writer publishing sensationalism in a tabloid? Lobbyists and politicians literally paid to amplify bullshit?

Hint: it's the latter.

Re: Why don't Americans trust experts? Just ask a paranormal investigator

#77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It never takes long to get from "I need to be trusted with the facts!" to demonstrating just gobsmacking levels of willful ignorance. > Social distancing had no visible effect anywhere it was tried. > Our search identified 172 observational studies across 16 countries and six continents, with no randomised controlled trials and 44 relevant comparative studies in health-care and non-health-care settings (n=25 697 pati…

Such papers aren't worth much. For example, that meta-review claims masks work. Some other scientists did a different meta-review (the A122 Cochrane Review) that concluded the opposite (strictly speaking, that there was no useful evidence masks worked). If you dig into the details of why they disagree, you'll find none of the studies claiming this stuff works are scientifically valid whilst the Cochrane meta-review i…

Hold on there amigo.

What you said is that Fauci had no reason to believe that social distancing would be helpful and knew that it wouldn’t be helpful.

I just linked to very clear reason to substantiate his beliefs. Regardless of whether you agree with it or not, and even regardless of whether this view ended up actually being correct, this evidence existed.

It is empirically, obviously true there was reason to hold this belief.

> Yet a system that concludes both yes and no simultaneously isn't worth anything

I see that you’ve never heard of science… which concludes: “we don’t know yet” on most questions most of the time. The reality is we didn’t have high certainty on most of these questions and even still they’re open for debate. But we have to make decisions in the presence of uncertainty all the time! Even the decisions that ended up being wrong during COVID (of which there were plenty) were well within the aperture of reasonability given the conditions they had to be made under.

None of this gets even close to the threshold of the government propagating verifiably false information. Not even in the same ballpark.

> Such papers aren't worth much.

Lol. “How am I so confused about what’s going on?! Must be the institutions’ fault!”

Re: Why don't Americans trust experts? Just ask a paranormal investigator

#78
post #19

>If our institutions can communicate their work better, supernatural beliefs will dry up a bit. We’ve seen this historically. I feel like this article misses the reason why people distrust institutions. Being "kicked out of the tent" is no doubt part of it, but it's more that the institutions themselves have stopped trying to communicate in good faith. In the past 50 or so years we've seen almost every institution (i…

Nah, you're exhibiting the fundamental problem which is effectively conspiratorial thinking. Not in the UFO sense, and I don't mean it disparagingly at all -- I mean literally ascribing behavior to some type of superstructure that doesn't really exist. "The healthcare system" is not one thing that "says" stuff. For every component of the education system that was trying to eliminate trades, there were others trying t…

[deleted]

Re: Why don't Americans trust experts? Just ask a paranormal investigator

#79
post #43
post #19

>If our institutions can communicate their work better, supernatural beliefs will dry up a bit. We’ve seen this historically. I feel like this article misses the reason why people distrust institutions. Being "kicked out of the tent" is no doubt part of it, but it's more that the institutions themselves have stopped trying to communicate in good faith. In the past 50 or so years we've seen almost every institution (i…

The church, the education system, the healthcare system, the government, and the banks, are all actual people. You guys are doing this to yourselves in an effort to scam each other.

A couple years back I was at a really really low point in life, I wanted someone to talk to. Not like counseling or anything, literally just someone to talk to one time over a cup of coffee, because it's not great to go without talking to people at all. I reached out to the churches from my small town to the nearest city. In addition I reached out to the above organizations, asking 'Is there anyone they can connect me with to get a cup of coffee and talk for like an hour at their convenience'. Most useful response I got was for paid christian phone counseling services and asking for my insurance provider information to see if it would cover it. No bible thumper preacher offered to talk, no Catholic priest, no one. I always kind of thought one trait of those groups was their willingness to talk to people.

This is not how society was the majority of my life. Something is very wrong, and very broken.

So I just searched if there was anything to connect and found this. The modern state of our society. I hate it:

https://priestchat.com/

From the front page: Is there an AI behind the priests on this platform?

No, our priests are real people who are here to offer you spiritual guidance and support.

https://priestchat.com/en/legal/terms-of-service TOS: The Service provided by PriestChat.com is a platform facilitating simulated and purely fictional exchanges which are intended exclusively for entertainment and novelty purposes.

14. AI Disclosure Nature of AI-Generated Content: All interactions, responses, suggestions, or communications made available through the Service may be partially or wholly generated by AI-based processes. These processes leverage algorithmic models, machine learning techniques, and potentially third-party computational platforms.se to any Content provided through the Service. Etc. etc.

Re: Why don't Americans trust experts? Just ask a paranormal investigator

#80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Such papers aren't worth much. For example, that meta-review claims masks work. Some other scientists did a different meta-review (the A122 Cochrane Review) that concluded the opposite (strictly speaking, that there was no useful evidence masks worked). If you dig into the details of why they disagree, you'll find none of the studies claiming this stuff works are scientifically valid whilst the Cochrane meta-review i…

Hold on there amigo. What you said is that Fauci had no reason to believe that social distancing would be helpful and knew that it wouldn’t be helpful. I just linked to very clear reason to substantiate his beliefs. Regardless of whether you agree with it or not, and even regardless of whether this view ended up actually being correct, this evidence existed. It is empirically, obviously true there was reason to hold…

You're citing papers which came after the public health authorities decided it would work, not before. Before the sudden about face the WHO had guidance for how to handle a respiratory virus pandemic. It said don't shut the borders, don't try and socially distance, don't restrict travel. All that was torn up and replaced overnight.

But there's nothing to speculate about here. Fauci explicitly told us the idea of social distancing "just appeared", which is easy to confirm just by looking carefully at the timelines. There was no evidence that led to the policy, it was just invented out of thin air. Not my claim: his. And then because academia is corrupt they promptly produced reams of papers claiming it worked great, although real world evidence showed it didn't. You can read these papers for yourself to see how motivated the reasoning is.

> The reality is we didn’t have high certainty on most of these questions

That's correct! There was uncertainty because there was no evidence these policies worked, which is why people got pissed off when they were presented as 100% dead cert things that only crazy Anti Science People could doubt. At no point did public health officials say, well, this might help or it might not so we'll leave it up to the citizens to decide what to do. Everything was 100% critical and had to be forced via law overnight because Science™.

You're trying to excuse what they did by saying they had to make decisions, but they didn't. They could have simply admitted they didn't know, done nothing and left it to individuals and their doctors to decide what to do for themselves. They chose instead to impose policies on the whole world by force, justifying it by claiming they were doing solid science when in reality the policies "just appeared".

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