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Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

electrek.co

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Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#71

Post by xnx »

antisthenes wrote: post #52
moralestapia wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, tell that to Theranos' executives. Oh yeah, you can't, they're in jail.

Theranos never went public, so the quote about markets doesn't apply. I do agree with the general sentiment, however. If FSD kills a person, many executives, including the top dog, need to go to jail.

> If FSD kills a person, many executives, including the top dog, need to go to jail.

It would be great to have that level of accountability.

Drunk drivers that kill people barely go to jail: https://www.cbsnews.com/chicago/news/man-gets-10-days-in-jai...

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#72

Post by JumpCrisscross »

electrondood wrote: post #55
standardUser wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Waymo has already lapped Tesla. They sell 250,000 rides per week and rising, for a total well over 10 million. That compares to precisely zero rides sold commercially by Tesla. It's possible Tesla could catch up, but first they need to stop losing ground and develop technology that can actually compete with their leading competitor. Plus, right now the Tesla brand is synonymous with the most obnoxious blowhard in Ame…

Waymo has been "scaling" down the Peninsula from SF for about 18 months now, and it's still not generally available. Tesla can scale by simply adding vehicles.

> Tesla can scale by simply adding vehicles

Between Elon having personally alienated voters in cities and Tesla's continued reliance on remote drivers, Tesla's ability to produce these vehicles seems low on the list of scaling constraints.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#73

Post by JumpCrisscross »

steveBK123 wrote: post #67
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Time will tell how they deal with bad riders Kick them out. Identity is tied to a credit card and a smartphone, after all.

Nature finds a way

Sure, for public infrastructure where the provider is legally limited in the ways it can limit access. If the claim is there literally aren't nice spaces in New York City, or any American city, you haven't been there.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#74

Post by jeffbee »

electrondood wrote: post #55
standardUser wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Waymo has already lapped Tesla. They sell 250,000 rides per week and rising, for a total well over 10 million. That compares to precisely zero rides sold commercially by Tesla. It's possible Tesla could catch up, but first they need to stop losing ground and develop technology that can actually compete with their leading competitor. Plus, right now the Tesla brand is synonymous with the most obnoxious blowhard in Ame…

Waymo has been "scaling" down the Peninsula from SF for about 18 months now, and it's still not generally available. Tesla can scale by simply adding vehicles.

And I can scale my poop by pooping again. The question is whether Tesla has a thing worth scaling, and the answer to that question is "no".

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#75

Post by JKCalhoun »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #65
JKCalhoun wrote: post #62

Are taxis like the anti-public transportation? Maybe they're "public" transportation for the individual? But we don't want drivers because.... So strange to me.

> Are taxis like the anti-public transportation? Taxis are a useful way to get around, including to and from public transit. That's all that should matter. Whether they fit into a particular urban vision is secondary to the fact that they're desirable to the people living there.

True, Omaha is not very "urban" (in the Manhattan sense).

I don't understand the singular focus on them. (Again, maybe because I don't live in Manhattan).

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#76

Post by xnx »

Could this moment finally be the thing that finally sinks Tesla's ridiculous stock price?

As long as the Robotaxi is just and idea, it can't fail. Once it's real, people can realize what a joke it is.

Relevant Silicon Valley:

"If you show revenue, people will ask 'HOW MUCH?' and it will never be enough. The company that was the 100xer, the 1000xer is suddenly the 2x dog. But if you have NO revenue, you can say you're pre-revenue! You're a potential pure play... It's not about how much you earn, it's about how much you're worth. And who is worth the most? Companies that lose money!"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BzAdXyPYKQo

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#77

Post by misiti3780 »

blindriver wrote: post #4

I have over $100k in Tesla puts. There is no way Tesla survives this. They have plummeting sales every quarter, and Elon is pushing out a product that is going to get into an accident within the first week. Robotaxis are glorified Ubers and will never level up to Waymos. FSD is useless if you have to keep your eye on the wheel and road. I have a Tesla Model Y. It's my favorite car I've ever driven. I subscribed to FS…

I have had the exact opposite experience. I have been using FSD on HW3 for a few years and the latest version for me is much safer than me driving. I dont care about your opinions of him killing the brand, they are irrelevant. It's clear that the vision only approach will work, it may need more training data but it will get there. Good luck with your short!

Last I checked there were 35K fatal accidents in the US every year - if FSD can bring that down to 3.5K that will be an obvious win.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#78

Post by standardUser »

electrondood wrote: post #55
standardUser wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Waymo has already lapped Tesla. They sell 250,000 rides per week and rising, for a total well over 10 million. That compares to precisely zero rides sold commercially by Tesla. It's possible Tesla could catch up, but first they need to stop losing ground and develop technology that can actually compete with their leading competitor. Plus, right now the Tesla brand is synonymous with the most obnoxious blowhard in Ame…

Waymo has been "scaling" down the Peninsula from SF for about 18 months now, and it's still not generally available. Tesla can scale by simply adding vehicles.

Scale what? Tesla does not have and has never had a commercial self-driving taxi service.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#79

Post by Spooky23 »

Workaccount2 wrote: post #13
blindriver wrote: post #4

I have over $100k in Tesla puts. There is no way Tesla survives this. They have plummeting sales every quarter, and Elon is pushing out a product that is going to get into an accident within the first week. Robotaxis are glorified Ubers and will never level up to Waymos. FSD is useless if you have to keep your eye on the wheel and road. I have a Tesla Model Y. It's my favorite car I've ever driven. I subscribed to FS…

Best of luck, I can't tell you how much I have lost having rational takes on Tesla that proved correct in reality, but ultimately immaterial to shareholders. Tesla stock is a cult stock. People buy it because it goes up. It always goes up. Wall street has long been clued into the brain damage and delusions it's core investors have, and are more than happy to play into the fantasy. Its a company of perpetual massive p…

Don’t worry, your pre-paid roadster will be delivered by a Tesla Semi driven by a Optimus robot as early as tomorrow.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#80

Post by freshmatrix »

blindriver wrote: post #4

I have over $100k in Tesla puts. There is no way Tesla survives this. They have plummeting sales every quarter, and Elon is pushing out a product that is going to get into an accident within the first week. Robotaxis are glorified Ubers and will never level up to Waymos. FSD is useless if you have to keep your eye on the wheel and road. I have a Tesla Model Y. It's my favorite car I've ever driven. I subscribed to FS…

good luck...

- https://x.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1934623551694508456/photo... - "(Obi) The Road Ahead:Pricing Insights On Waymo, Uber and Lyft" https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/25973106-obi-waymo-6... - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2025-06-16/why-tesla-c...

Best-selling BEVs worldwide January-April 2025, according to new data from EV Volumes:

1) Tesla Model Y 2) Tesla Model 3 3) BYD Seagull/Dolphin Mini 4) Wuling Mini 5) Geely Geome Xingyuan 6) Xiaomi SU7 7) BYD Yuan Plys/Atto 3 8) BYD Yuan Up/Atto 2 9) Wuling Bingo 10) Xpeng M03

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