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The many ways tarrifs will hit electronics

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Re: The many ways tarrifs will hit electronics

#71

Post by alabastervlog »

andsoitis wrote: post #40
carlosjobim wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How many American houses are built in China? How much American rice is grown in China? How much American lumber is chopped in China? How much American electricity is produced in China?

Since the tariffs target the whole world, my responses look at imports rather than constraining to China. > How many American houses are built in China? Roughly 30% of the softwood lumber consumed in the US is imported, and Canada accounts for over 80% of those imports. Other key suppliers include China, Brazil, and Mexico. And that’s just lumber. The US now imports 1.5 million metric tons of rice. See trend: https:/…

Also: some US electricity actually is produced in Canada. One option that seemed to be seriously considered early in this whole dust-up was Canada cutting off electricity supplied to the US. It would've caused chaos in the Northeast.

I think they only pulled back from doing that because it probably would have fairly-directly killed quite a few people.

Re: The many ways tarrifs will hit electronics

#72

Post by mindslight »

debug-desperado wrote: post #70
ty6853 wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On first glance that's the case, in practice they clamp down hardest on middle and professional classes. The rich borrow against gains or pay long term capital gains, or just "re-invest" (no profit) into durable assets for their business that hold value longer than they'll be alive. The scam of income tax is that it's progressive on paper but not in practice.

"The scam of income tax is that it's progressive on paper but not in practice." Perfectly put. It's always bothered me that the tax brackets don't continue on in a logarithmic fashion, e.g. new brackets at 1.5 million, 15 million, 150 million, etc.

Focusing on brackets for earned income is a distraction. Those only apply to relatively rare sports stars, actors, etc. The real cheats are things like tax rates being lower for capital gains, and that people receiving rental/royalty income can subtract all of their expenses (whereas wage earners cannot).

Re: The many ways tarrifs will hit electronics

#73

Post by Integrape »

amelius wrote: post #34
davidw wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People keep acting like there is some plan or higher thought process. Sometimes, people are just morons. Look at how Bessent had to sneak in and try and get the tariffs paused: https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-tariff-pause-navar... There's no coordinated strategy there.

Apparently the guy is playing 3d chess. But they didn't say he's not very good at it.

Yes, but in this case the 'd' stands for dementia.

Re: The many ways tarrifs will hit electronics

#74

Post by presto8 »

fabbari wrote: post #54
sokoloff wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Shipping is not tariffed, so I expect that hobby PCBs will still be affordable. ($2 PCBs becoming $5 is hardly a deal-breaker.) Aliexpress I expect will adapt to end (or at least sharply curtail) free shipping promotions and start charging for shipping (which will not be tariffed), which better aligns what you’re actually paying for anyway. So, getting 100 transistors for $1.02 and free shipping with $10 total might…

Just to get the numbers right: [0] there is a $25 minimum, that becomes $50 June 1st, on all packages below or at $800. So those $0.25 transistors - after June 1st - come at $50.25 plus shipping. [0] https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/04/fact-sheet-pr...

> Just to get the numbers right: [0] there is a $25 minimum, that becomes $50 June 1st, on all packages below or at $800.

Things are changing very quickly, so it's hard to keep up. But I believe this was revised on April 9th to $100 dollars a package from HK or PRC on May 2, and $200 a package starting June 1.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/modi...

> (b) increase the per postal item containing goods duty in section 2(c)(ii) of Executive Order 14256, as modified by the Executive Order dated April 8, 2025, that is in effect on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on May 2, 2025, and before 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on June 1, 2025, from 75 dollars to 100 dollars; and

> (c) increase the per postal item containing goods duty in section 2(c)(ii) of Executive Order 14256, as modified by the Executive Order dated April 8, 2025, that is in effect on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on June 1, 2025, from 150 dollars to 200 dollars.

Re: The many ways tarrifs will hit electronics

#75

Post by spencerflem »

cj wrote: post #10
spencerflem wrote: post #2

I was trying to buy a laptop yesterday and the ones reviewed three months ago as "best laptop under $1000" are all $1500

I tried using https://camelcamelcamel.com/ to find some examples of this, but no luck spotting obvious price increases. Curious what brand you were looking at?

Maybe its just the two I was looking at, but the Dell G16 was on a best under $1k list and is $1600 on best buy, and my almost brand new Zephirus G14 that got killed by a spill (rest in peace) went from $1200 when i got it to $1700 on best buy as well.

Acer Nitro V kept its price at what the reviews said and that's what I ended up getting, but still weird that 2 of 3 changed

Re: The many ways tarrifs will hit electronics

#76

Post by tzs »

Workaccount2 wrote: post #56
SoftTalker wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

About 3/4 of households make under $150k/year. Having no income tax will be hugely popular with them. It would kill the argument that Trump is only interested tax breaks for the rich.

It would also make it politically untenable to get rid of tariffs and reinstate income tax.

Or it would make it politically quite tenable to get rid of tariffs and greatly raise income taxes on people making over $150k.

Re: The many ways tarrifs will hit electronics

#77

Post by mindslight »

carlosjobim wrote: post #22
mindslight wrote: post #8

Let's just call it what it is - a national sales tax. The only way significant bottom-up manufacturing ecosystems would come back to the US would be through targeted government investment, long term stability, and effective anti-trust enforcement - all things beyond the current administration. If three decades of economic neoliberalism was a steamroller crushing our industrial base, the Trumpist solution is to just t…

How many American houses are built in China? How much American rice is grown in China? How much American lumber is chopped in China? How much American electricity is produced in China?

The right question is how significantly those things rely on equipment and supplies produced in China, and the answer is all of them very much do.

Re: The many ways tarrifs will hit electronics

#78

Post by tzs »

wing-_-nuts wrote: post #15

I've honestly never understood the point of the tariffs. 1. They're massively unpopular and likely to cause electoral losses in '26 and '28 which will immediately undo them 2. Consumers know the tariffs will likely cause a recession, and will likely be undone in 4y. Pretty much every major spending purchase that can be delayed, will. 3. Companies know 4y is not enough time to invest in new supply chains or new manufa…

> I can tell you, for myself? Any major purchases are now off the table. I will happily keep my 18 year old car running instead of buying a new honda civic.

Aren't Civics made in the US, with mostly US and Canadian parts? They might come through the tariffs without too big a hit.

Re: The many ways tarrifs will hit electronics

#79

Post by atmavatar »

mindslight wrote: post #72
debug-desperado wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The scam of income tax is that it's progressive on paper but not in practice." Perfectly put. It's always bothered me that the tax brackets don't continue on in a logarithmic fashion, e.g. new brackets at 1.5 million, 15 million, 150 million, etc.

Focusing on brackets for earned income is a distraction. Those only apply to relatively rare sports stars, actors, etc. The real cheats are things like tax rates being lower for capital gains, and that people receiving rental/royalty income can subtract all of their expenses (whereas wage earners cannot).

Arguably a bigger cheat is that if you have enough wealth tied up in stocks, you can realize capital gains for the sake of taking out loans to live off of without having to realize the gains for the sake of taxes. Then, you can pass those investments onto your inheritors with a stepped-up cost basis so they don't have to pay tax on the gains, either.

Re: The many ways tarrifs will hit electronics

#80

Post by tzs »

Workaccount2 wrote: post #19
wing-_-nuts wrote: post #15

I've honestly never understood the point of the tariffs. 1. They're massively unpopular and likely to cause electoral losses in '26 and '28 which will immediately undo them 2. Consumers know the tariffs will likely cause a recession, and will likely be undone in 4y. Pretty much every major spending purchase that can be delayed, will. 3. Companies know 4y is not enough time to invest in new supply chains or new manufa…

Trump wants to get rid of income taxes for those earning under $150k. He most likely intends to pull out the financial pillar of income tax, and replace it with tariffs. He is likely waiting for the price crunch to blow up so he can step in an give everyone the "gift" of no income tax.

But he also says the tariffs will bring manufacturing back. If that works then the tariff money tanks.
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