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The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

mohitdagarwal.substack.com

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Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#71

Post by voidspark »

makeitdouble wrote: post #66
mycall wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By switching to their own hardware, they become NVidia's competitors.

That's kind of arguing that people cooking at home are restaurants' competitors. There's a kernel of truth in it, but if I was McDonalds I'd care a lot more about what KFC is doing than the market trends of cast iron pans.

Bad analogy

90% of Nvidia's revenue is from datacenters.

If the datacenters stop buying Nvidia's products, and use their own hardware instead, then Nvidia loses 90% of its revenue.

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#72

Post by ericmcer »

mkoubaa wrote: post #58

When takes like these go mainstream (Financial Times, etc) I buy.

I loaded calls this afternoon, two months out so I am not too scared.

I figure regardless of tariffs and competition and other fluctuations the demand for computing power will endlessly trend upwards and as much as we can produce will be consumed.

Good luck to you.

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#73

Post by m463 »

chneu wrote: post #16
fnordpiglet wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gaming GPUs is a side business for them at this point. It’s all about AI.

Gosh, I have a coworker who acts like gaming GPUs are the only hardware that matters. I've tried explaining that one or two AI data center clients for Nvidia dwarfs the entire gaming GPU market, but he just doesn't get it.

Sort of reminds me of ios vs macos. I'm pretty sure the ios market dwarfs macos.

EDIT: brief search says last year apple sold 300m ios vs 20m macos devices.

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#74

Post by codelion »

01100011 wrote: post #27

Seems like another article based on the assumption that Nvidia just sits there doing nothing while everyone who has so far proven unable to compete suddenly figures it out and steals their lunch. At some point one of these Nvidia doomers will be right but there is a long line of them who failed miserably.

It's true, predicting Nvidia's downfall has become a recurring theme. It's easy to underestimate a company that consistently adapts and innovates. Maybe the narrative isn't about "stealing their lunch" but rather carving out specialized niches.

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#75

Post by echelon »

thot_experiment wrote: post #60
echelon wrote: post #22

> While the H100 generation likely represents peak pricing power (new B200s have lower margins and higher COGS), an immediate lack of alternatives means they’ll continue to print cash. That's not a trend yet. We're about to enter an era where most media is generated. Demand is only going to go up, and margins may not matter if volume goes up. > The open question is long-term (>6yrs) durability1. Hyperscalers (Google,…

Most media might be generated, but it remains to be seen whether most media that people will pay for will be generated.

You don't pay for Facebook, Instagram, Reddit, TikTok. Most don't pay for YouTube.

But to your point, Disney is using GenAI in their new live action Moana film. Presumably that'll do lots of sales.

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#76

Post by tough »

mushufasa wrote: post #69
voidspark wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> everyone who has so far proven unable to compete The article explains that Nvidia's biggest customers (50% of datacenter revenue) are switching to their own hardware.

I'm skeptical of this. They have been doing this for a decade already. So far, those same companies have just become bigger and bigger customers of NVIDIA. NVIDIA is very strategic about building product to avoid commodification -- both by building out network effects where software is tied to their proprietary sdk libraries, and by always focusing on being at the cutting edge of product. Both these things can be tru…

Google's Gemma new QAT training comes from google using their own TPU's

don't know much about the rest tho

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#77

Post by voidspark »

mushufasa wrote: post #69
voidspark wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> everyone who has so far proven unable to compete The article explains that Nvidia's biggest customers (50% of datacenter revenue) are switching to their own hardware.

I'm skeptical of this. They have been doing this for a decade already. So far, those same companies have just become bigger and bigger customers of NVIDIA. NVIDIA is very strategic about building product to avoid commodification -- both by building out network effects where software is tied to their proprietary sdk libraries, and by always focusing on being at the cutting edge of product. Both these things can be tru…

> So far, these large companies' internal hardware has been useful internally but never a complete replacement for NVIDIA

Google use their own hardware for AI/HPC. Nvidia hardware is offered to external customers who demand it on Google Cloud Platform.

The AI datacenter explosion has only occurred within the past two years. We are talking about plans that will take years to implement. The hyperscalers are trying to cut out Nvidia as soon as possible.

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#78

Post by moralestapia »

aleph_minus_one wrote: post #36
voidspark wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

His coworker simply has no idea that datacenters provide 93% of Nvidia's revenue, and a single B200 GPU sells for $40k.

> His coworker simply has no idea that datacenters provide 93% of Nvidia's revenue, and a single B200 GPU sells for $40k. Currently. :-)

Real beats imaginary, though.

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#79

Post by moralestapia »

lvl155 wrote: post #67

I am starting to think AMD is doing this on purpose and they have some secret handshake deal with Nvidia. Nvidia has at least two more years of “sellout at any price” market. Not because they have the best solution (which they do atm) but because they basically share the monopoly with Apple at TSMC. And Apple is content wasting that away on iPhones.

CEOs are cousins so there's that ...

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#80

Post by thot_experiment »

echelon wrote: post #75
thot_experiment wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most media might be generated, but it remains to be seen whether most media that people will pay for will be generated.

You don't pay for Facebook, Instagram, Reddit, TikTok. Most don't pay for YouTube. But to your point, Disney is using GenAI in their new live action Moana film. Presumably that'll do lots of sales.

You do absolutely pay for all those things with your attention, if genAI content doesn't hold people's attention then your ad space will be cheap.

> Disney is using genAI in their new live action Moana film

If this is your bar then sure, but I think the interesting question is when/if we cross into a regime where mostly self-managed genAI is in true competition with the media you consume day to day. Not something that's hundreds of thousands of person hours being enhanced by genAI. I don't think there's any chance we see a total collapse of demand for this stuff but I think the jury is still out on how valuable it truly is imo.

I'm sure it's non zero and I expect demand will continue to rise, but it may plateau or slow sooner than people think, I just don't think we can clearly say yet.

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