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Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs

nytimes.com

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Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs

#71

Post by Trasmatta »

yladiz wrote: post #57
whycome wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But youve clearly defined what the problem is. Is a tariff the solution?

It’s not the only solution, but it is one, as we saw back in the first Trump administration and their tariffs on, and the resulting counter tariffs from, China. It will almost certainly dramatically reduce demand for crops like this from the US, which will lead to less farmers (as many leave the business or go bankrupt) and ultimately less water usage by the farmers.

What does US farmers going bankrupt solve?

Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs

#72

Post by nickthegreek »

dimitrios1 wrote: post #43
wtcactus wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, Chinese don’t have proper elections so there, I don't know. But you can be sure that in the USA, this will all stop in 2 years with the midterms, and be reversed in 4 with the presidential elections. No one other than Trump’s fan base likes this even now, imagine in a few months when people start feeling the terrible repercussions.

I am not part of Trump's fan base, and I am in favor of taking action to reverse decades of negative trends I've seen happening as a result of American corporations selling their souls to the highest outside bidders. It's going to be short term pain for long term gain.

I keep hearing people say short term gain, but no one wants to put a time on short term, nor do they want to do the math on how long it would take for their their plans to come to actual fruition using tariffs. There is nothing short term about setting up steel mills, rare earth extraction, chip factories, growing coffee...

Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs

#73

Post by yannis »

whycome wrote: post #45
djha-skin wrote: post #35

I'm kinda happy about this. Our farmers in Utah lobby so hard for water, then use it to grow alfalfa which they sell to China because they can sell it there for more money than it can be sold locally. It boils my circuits that they ask for our precious water -- to which they have historically had an obvious right, growing our food -- and then basically ship it overseas. Keep the crops at least sold in the US, and hop…

But youve clearly defined what the problem is. Is a tariff the solution?

Yes it is not the answer. About this issue see https://www.sltrib.com/opinion/editorial/2022/12/04/why-its-...

Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs

#74

Post by ajross »

heisgone wrote: post #41
lenerdenator wrote: post #14

I hate to say it: this might be the thing that actually screws his movement. Biden was uninspiring but ultimately did okay on a few things. The things that screwed him were inflation - some of which was Trump's fault - and his mental state, which can happen to anyone at that age. The inflation followed Harris in her run, as people were fondly remembering 2017-2019 and the era of lower prices. They thought putting Tru…

No doubt Lutnick and Bessent are taking crazy risks with their strategy. If they are to be believed, their plan is to have a recession at the begining of the term to get long term bond price lower and refinance the debt. By their own account, they outright said to Trump things aren't going to be good until 2028. So, I guess we have to prepare for a few years of crap. Let's hope it doesn't trigger a depression that wo…

FWIW, that is 100% a retconned explanation. No one anywhere was talking about this theory until the last week.

It's clear that Trump demanded tariffs, tried to do it once early, and got cold feet. What happened with Lutnick et. al. is Court Politics. They saw an opening to improve their own status by selling a creative lie that would allow Trump to do what he wants. So he bought the lie and picked new favorites.

But it remains a lie. No one serious thinks that this is a good idea.

Also: refinance the debt?! First, no, that's not how federal bonds work. They're a contract and you pay the interest it says on the note. But even if you had a magic money pool around to do buybacks or whatever... most of the outstanding debt is in 30 year notes at like 3%! How low do you think they're going to get the Fed to go?

Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs

#76

Post by Trasmatta »

rjtavares wrote: post #25
boxed wrote: post #10

How is it retaliation to destroy your own economy by making the same bad life choices? Isn't actual retaliation to just ignore the entire thing and thank the US for the extra percentage points in advantage you got for free?

You can't be bullied and not respond - that's an invite for future bullying. Besides, this isn't at all the same. China isn't adding tariffs on the whole world like the US are.

I'm continually surprised how many people here don't understand this simple principle. It seems to come up with every thread about Russia too.

Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs

#77

Post by ajross »

vdupras wrote: post #67
ajross wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> they can sell it there for more money than it can be sold locally So, just to be clear here: you want Utah farmers to foot the bill for the trade war? If they are forced to sell locally for less, they're the ones losing money. Utahns end up poorer in this scenario. Obviously in a trade war, everyone ends up poorer. It's just simple math. It's absolutely dumbfounding the extent to which people have simply decided to…

I don't think it was OPs point. OP's point is that agricultural exporters in Utah profits on externalizations (aquifer depletion), which impoverishes everybody depending on that aquifer. When you come to the realization that you can't drink money, this comes as good news.

So... you think Utahns are simply going to stop farming and end up destitute? I'm not following. No, they'll keep turning the spigot on because they have kids to feed, they'll just be poorer.

If you want better water regulation in the Utah desert, the solution is better water regulation in the Utah desert and not a huge tax on trade.

Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs

#78

Post by pixl97 »

Trasmatta wrote: post #71
yladiz wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not the only solution, but it is one, as we saw back in the first Trump administration and their tariffs on, and the resulting counter tariffs from, China. It will almost certainly dramatically reduce demand for crops like this from the US, which will lead to less farmers (as many leave the business or go bankrupt) and ultimately less water usage by the farmers.

What does US farmers going bankrupt solve?

I believe you may have some reading comprehension problem with what they laid out?

At least in the parents posters mind that less farm exports leads to less water usage. Hence bankrupt farmers solves things like aquifers going empty and lakes draining leavings environmental disasters.

Now, how it actually works out in the end may be different, but the concept doesn't seem completely broken at first appearance.

Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs

#79

Post by stevenAthompson »

alephnerd wrote: post #26
josefresco wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> $2-4k blow over the next year as supply chains react. It's gonna take a lot longer, and cost Americans a lot more money for "supply chains to react" and move manufacturing to the US.

Manufacturing isn't returning to the US due to these tariffs. Just like before the tariffs, the US is still too expensive. On the other hand, it has killed cost-competitiveness for Chinese exports directly from China or via transshipment from Vietnam. The tariff regime has now made Latin America (Brazil, Colombia), Turkiye, Philippines, parts of the EU (Poland, Czechia, Romania), and India cost competitive. And NAFTA…

> Manufacturing isn't returning to the US due to these tariffs.

Even if it did, who cares? It wouldn't make anything less expensive or better and unemployment was already basically as close to zero as it will ever get. If wages go up that would just increase inflation more.

I can't figure out what they even imagined this was going to accomplish.

Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs

#80

Post by bitshiftfaced »

UncleEntity wrote: post #61
morsecodist wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you assume the US tariffs are unchangeable then you would be right but the hope of retaliatory tariffs is that they will get the US to update it's tariffs in response to the economic harm caused. It will also harm China of course but I would imagine they hope the harm caused to the US will reduce the tariffs and leave China better off in the long run. This is not totally unreasonable, the US is ostensibly more sen…

I asked the google and it appears a big chunk of Chinese imports are agricultural products. Farmers not having a market to sell their products into isn't such a good thing for any administration so they seem to have a bunch of leverage on this point alone.

China can hit American farmers, but their overall trade surplus is $295 billion. The US has much more leverage.
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