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Yann LeCun, Pioneer of AI, Thinks Today's LLM's Are Nearly Obsolete

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Re: Yann LeCun, Pioneer of AI, Thinks Today's LLM's Are Nearly Obsolete

#71
post #21

outside of text generation and search, LLMs have not delivered any significant value

I personally have greatly benefitted from LLM's helping me reason about problems and make progress on many diverse issues across professional, recreational and mental health difficulties. I think that asking whether it's just "text generation and search" rather than something that transcends it is as meaningful as asking whether an airplane really "flies" or just "applies thrust and generates lift".

Or perhaps:

“The question of whether a computer can think is no more interesting than the question of whether a submarine can swim.”

― Edsger W. Dijkstra, in https://www.cs.utexas.edu/~EWD/transcriptions/EWD08xx/EWD867...

Re: Yann LeCun, Pioneer of AI, Thinks Today's LLM's Are Nearly Obsolete

#72
post #23

As LLMs do things thought to be impossible before, LeCun adjusts his statements about LLMs, but at the same time his credibility goes lower and lower. He started saying that LLMs were just predicting words using a probabilistic model, like a better Markov Chain, basically. It was already pretty clear that this was not the case as even GPT3 could do summarization well enough, and there is no probabilistic link between…

But have we established that LLMs dont just interpolate and they can create?

Are we able to prove it with output that's

1) algorithmically novel (not just a recombination)

2) coherent, and

3) not explainable by training data coverage.

No handwaving with scale...

Re: Yann LeCun, Pioneer of AI, Thinks Today's LLM's Are Nearly Obsolete

#73
post #25
post #23

As LLMs do things thought to be impossible before, LeCun adjusts his statements about LLMs, but at the same time his credibility goes lower and lower. He started saying that LLMs were just predicting words using a probabilistic model, like a better Markov Chain, basically. It was already pretty clear that this was not the case as even GPT3 could do summarization well enough, and there is no probabilistic link between…

Why is changing one’s mind when confronted with new evidence a negative signifier of reputation for you?

When you limit to one framing "changing one's mind", it helps if you point it out, acknowledging that other framings can be possible, otherwise it risks seeming (not necessarily being) manipulative, and you are at least overlooking a large part of the domain. Harvard Decision group called these two of the most insidious drivers of poor decisions "frame blindness" and poor "frame choice". Give more than one frame a chance.

Re: Yann LeCun, Pioneer of AI, Thinks Today's LLM's Are Nearly Obsolete

#75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you need basically rock solid evidence of X before you stop saying "this thing cannot do X", then you shouldn't be running a forward looking lab. There are only so many directions you can take, only so many resources at your disposal. Your intuition has to be really freakishly good to be running such a lab. He's done a lot of amazing work, but his stance on LLMs seems continuously off the mark.

The list of great minds who thought that "new fangled thing is nonsense" and later turned out to be horribly wrong is quite long and distinguished

> Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.

-Lord Kelvin. 1895

> I think there is a world market for maybe five computers. Thomas Watson, IBM. 1943

> On talking films: “They’ll never last.” -Charlie Chaplin.

> This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings… -William Orton, Western Union. 1876

> Television won’t be able to hold any market -Darryl Zanuck, 20th Century Fox. 1946

> Louis Pasteur’s theory of germs is ridiculous fiction. -Pierre Pachet, French physiologist.

> Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value. — Marshal Ferdinand Foch 1911

> There’s no chance the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. — Steve Ballmer, CEO Microsoft CEO. 2007

> Stocks have reached a permanently high plateau. — Irving Fisher, Economist. 1929

> Who the hell wants to hear actors talk? —Harry Warner, Warner Bros. 1927

> By 2005, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine. -Paul Krugman, Economist. 1998

Re: Yann LeCun, Pioneer of AI, Thinks Today's LLM's Are Nearly Obsolete

#76
post #20
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you read the slide? It doesn't make the argument you are responding to, you just seem to have been prompted by "Math".

A more generous take on the previous post is that the dominant paradigm of Math (consistent logic, which depends on many things like transitive preference) is wrong, and that another type of Math could work. If you look at the slide, the subtree of correct answers exists, what's missing is just a way to make them more prevalent instead of less. Personally, I think LeCun is just leaping to the wrong conclusion because…

My point is no type of math will work to model reason. Math is one of the many tools of reason, it is not the basis for reason. This is a very common error.

Re: Yann LeCun, Pioneer of AI, Thinks Today's LLM's Are Nearly Obsolete

#77
post #66
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LLMs learn from examples where the logits are not probabilities, but how a given sentence continues (only one token is set to 1). So they don't learn probabilities, they learn how to continue the sentence with a given token. We apply softmax at the logits for mathematical reasons, and it is natural/simpler to think in terms of probabilities, but that's not what happens, nor the neural networks they are composed of is…

I don't understand. Deterministic and stochastic have very specific meanings. The statement: "To continue my reply I could say this word, more than the others, or maybe that one, a bit less, ..." sounds very much like a probability distribution.

If you really want to think at it as a probability, think at it as "the probability to express correctly the sentence/idea that was modeled in the activations of the model for that token". Which is totally different than "the probability that this sentence continues in a given way", as the latter is like "how in general this sentence continues", but instead the model picks tokens based on what it is modeling in the latent space.

Re: Yann LeCun, Pioneer of AI, Thinks Today's LLM's Are Nearly Obsolete

#78
post #3

"[Yann LeCun] believes [current] LLMs will be largely obsolete within five years."

Obsolete by? This seems like a broken clock having a good chance of being right. There's so much progress, it wouldn't be that surprising if something quite different completely overtakes the current trend within 5 years .

> Obsolete by

By NN models overcoming the pivot over representing language - according to LeCun in the article. It could be the Joint Embedding Predictive Architecture - we will see.

> There's so much progress, it wouldn't be that surprising

LeCun's point looks like a denunciation over an excessive focus over the LLM idea ("it works, so let's expand that" vs "it probably will not achieve the level of a satisfactory general model, so let us directly try to go beyond it").

Re: Yann LeCun, Pioneer of AI, Thinks Today's LLM's Are Nearly Obsolete

#79
post #72
post #23

As LLMs do things thought to be impossible before, LeCun adjusts his statements about LLMs, but at the same time his credibility goes lower and lower. He started saying that LLMs were just predicting words using a probabilistic model, like a better Markov Chain, basically. It was already pretty clear that this was not the case as even GPT3 could do summarization well enough, and there is no probabilistic link between…

But have we established that LLMs dont just interpolate and they can create? Are we able to prove it with output that's 1) algorithmically novel (not just a recombination) 2) coherent, and 3) not explainable by training data coverage. No handwaving with scale...

Why is that the bar though? Imagine LLMs as a kid that has a box of lego with a hundred million blocks in it, and it can assemble those blocks into any configuration possible. Is the fact that the kid doesn't have access to ABS plastic pellets and a molding machine, and so they can't make new pieces; does that really make us think that the kid just interpolates and can't create?

Re: Yann LeCun, Pioneer of AI, Thinks Today's LLM's Are Nearly Obsolete

#80
post #20
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you read the slide? It doesn't make the argument you are responding to, you just seem to have been prompted by "Math".

A more generous take on the previous post is that the dominant paradigm of Math (consistent logic, which depends on many things like transitive preference) is wrong, and that another type of Math could work. If you look at the slide, the subtree of correct answers exists, what's missing is just a way to make them more prevalent instead of less. Personally, I think LeCun is just leaping to the wrong conclusion because…

A less generous take would be that humans are also stoichastic parrots that can't help themselves but say something when they see a trigger word like math, Trump, transgender, or abortion.
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