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Probabilistic Artificial Intelligence

arxiv.org

71–80 of 100 posts

Re: Probabilistic Artificial Intelligence

#71
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The record of a scientific discovery that is heavily criticized for plagiarism and falsehoods is probably not a good example, actually.

Well here's one: tons of people do drugs. It's not even a question whether or not drugs have inspired discoveries. They obviously have.

Tons of people eat carrots. That doesn’t imply carrots have inspired discoveries.

Re: Probabilistic Artificial Intelligence

#72
post #70

stupid question: can a LLM (i.e neural network) tell me the probability of the answer it just spew? i.e. turn into fuzzy logic? Aaand, can it tell me how much it does believe itself? i.e. what's the probability that above probability is correct? i.e. confidence i.e. intuitionisticaly fuzzy logic? Long time ago at uni we studied these things for a while.. and even made a Prolog interpreter having both F+IF (probabilit…

The way I understand it, an LLM response is a chain of tokens where each is the most probable token. Maybe there exists more complicated candidate and selection approaches than that, but biggest number works for me. For the sake of simplicity, let's just say tokens are words. You'd have access to the probability of each word in the ordering of the sentence, but I'm not sure how that would then be used to evaluate to…

https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/self-locating-beliefs/

Is this helpful?

Re: Probabilistic Artificial Intelligence

#73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well here's one: tons of people do drugs. It's not even a question whether or not drugs have inspired discoveries. They obviously have.

Tons of people eat carrots. That doesn’t imply carrots have inspired discoveries.

That is a textbook false equivalence.

Re: Probabilistic Artificial Intelligence

#75
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The way I understand it, an LLM response is a chain of tokens where each is the most probable token. Maybe there exists more complicated candidate and selection approaches than that, but biggest number works for me. For the sake of simplicity, let's just say tokens are words. You'd have access to the probability of each word in the ordering of the sentence, but I'm not sure how that would then be used to evaluate to…

https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/self-locating-beliefs/ Is this helpful?

I could have worded my reply better, but the simplified explanation stands :b

Re: Probabilistic Artificial Intelligence

#77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unless you did a thumbprint, you're perfectly fine, no damage. Just get your shit together, that seems to be your takeaway. Sounds like it worked. Now you have to keep working on yourself rather than blaming a harmless drug for your problems.

If a thumbprint can do damage, why can't a lower dose? What's the mechanism?

Water will kill you if you consume too much of it - almost universally, the poison is in the dose not the substance.

Re: Probabilistic Artificial Intelligence

#78
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The record of a scientific discovery that is heavily criticized for plagiarism and falsehoods is probably not a good example, actually.

Well here's one: tons of people do drugs. It's not even a question whether or not drugs have inspired discoveries. They obviously have.

Have they? I find it likely, personally, but it doesn’t mean it’s not entirely coincidental either.

Re: Probabilistic Artificial Intelligence

#79

stupid question: can a LLM (i.e neural network) tell me the probability of the answer it just spew? i.e. turn into fuzzy logic? Aaand, can it tell me how much it does believe itself? i.e. what's the probability that above probability is correct? i.e. confidence i.e. intuitionisticaly fuzzy logic? Long time ago at uni we studied these things for a while.. and even made a Prolog interpreter having both F+IF (probabilit…

Yes, but those probabilities tend to be poorly calibrated, especially after the tuning they get for instruction following and such.

Re: Probabilistic Artificial Intelligence

#80

stupid question: can a LLM (i.e neural network) tell me the probability of the answer it just spew? i.e. turn into fuzzy logic? Aaand, can it tell me how much it does believe itself? i.e. what's the probability that above probability is correct? i.e. confidence i.e. intuitionisticaly fuzzy logic? Long time ago at uni we studied these things for a while.. and even made a Prolog interpreter having both F+IF (probabilit…

Not out of the box I think; I wouldn’t trust any self-assesment like that. With enough compute, you could probably come up with a metric by doing a beam search and using an LLM to evaluate how many of the resultant answers were effectively the same as a proxy for “confidence”.

Similar to bootstrapping a random variable in statistics. Your N estimates (each estimate is derived from a subset of the sample data) give you an estimate of the distribution of the random variable. If the variance of that distribution is small (relative to the magnitude of the point estimate) then you have high confidence that your point estimate is close to the true value.

Likewise in your metric, if all answers are the same despite perturbations then it's more likely to be ... true?

I'd really like to see a plot of your metric versus the SimpleQA hallucation benchmark that OpenAI uses.

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