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Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

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Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#71

Post by wslh »

InkCanon wrote: post #59

On the last point: "The industry has matured. The low-hanging fruit of the mobile/web era has largely been picked, making truly innovative opportunities harder to find." It is a repeating pattern in history that people think technology and science have reached a dead end. Michelsen (falsely attributed to Kelvin) declared principles of physics were already established before quantum mechanics. Watson said there was de…

The point is about a specific technology, like software, not technology at all. For example, we continue to use the same vehicles (e.g. cars) with a well known technology while SpaceX is advancing on sending rockets to the space. Technology is advancing but some technology is well known.

This is not to say that software is not evolving but most startups don't have an issue with building software but with business development (e.g. selling).

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#72

Post by throwup238 »

KaiserPro wrote: post #17

I think the bigger issue is that most of the financial upsides of startups were illusory Unless you're a founder, you're unlikely to make any money, and predatory VC/backers using convertibles/senior debt to turn your equity into Zimbabwean dollars. Thats before any stats are calculated for lasting long enough to either IPO, make money or get bought out. As someone who did successfully exit, the stories of multiple-m…

> predatory VC/backers using convertibles/senior debt to turn your equity into Zimbabwean dollars

Liquidation preference!

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#73

Post by diggan »

jparishy wrote: post #66

FWIW on HN circa 2012 when I joined, there were people I thought were biz heroes who posted here and that made the place feel smaller, and that dynamic is gone I think. I’m not sure it can be manufactured again either, in the age of personal brands Plus I think in 2025 people might be too negative and less likely to break the mold socially than in 2012. However I think that’s also an exploitable situation ‘cause it m…

I also joined around 2012, had the same impression as you, but I still have that impression today, just that I stopped seeing anyone as a hero. But I frequently end up coming across comments that were written by people who worked on my favorite childhood PC game/book/website for example, still to this day.

/bestcomments is a great place to discover these types of comments, in case someone has missed it: https://news.ycombinator.com/bestcomments

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#74

Post by that_guy_iain »

Is it also that many of HN's audience have gotten older and tried these things?

I'm currently working on building my own startup in the billing industry which has a massive barrier to entry just on functionality and then marketing spend and whatnot. If I was in my 20s all this work wouldn't be that much of a big deal. In my 30s it's rougher. And in 40s it would be even rougher.

That's not to mention other issues like funding becoming harder to get.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#75

Post by TeMPOraL »

diggan wrote: post #55
alexander2002 wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Technology is inherently a domination force and you can see this invisible domination battle between technology startups all the time. Have a moat* or get exhausted battling against other similar startups until one is the major winner. Technology is the easy part (for most people) Winning the battle is the hard part. TO summarize, win battle=big-payday

That's assuming "Winning" means "More money", but that's not everyone's goal in life. There is plenty of space for smaller companies that earn enough profits to let every employee live a good life, without chasing unicorns.

Correct, but if you're interested in that, you start a regular small business, and you take a loan from a bank for seed capital. Venture Capital will give you much more more money and ask less questions precisely because they expect you to go for world domination - and they expect corresponding returns.

You don't reach for VC if you just want a lifestyle business, much like you don't reach for mafia money just to pay down your mortgage earlier. You have to know who you're getting in bed with, and what their expectations are.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#76

Post by paulnpace »

qwertox wrote: post #70

> This shift isn't isolated to these two posts. Is there a statistical analysis which backs this claim?

Going back a little further, perhaps 20 years or so, there was generally less focus on "hard" data. I wonder if the ability to perform qualitative analyses plays into how an online community evolves?

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#77

Post by Macha »

NoboruWataya wrote: post #60
dcminter wrote: post #10

> What's changed? Largely, the make up of the audience in HN. I sincerely doubt that the hard core of people doing startups, thinking of doing a startup, or just very interested in the topic has gone away or changed attitude very much. But the profile of HN has grown. It's a miracle that it's still an interesting and curious group, but from comments I'd be astounded if there were not a far greater proportion of peopl…

> I'd be astounded if there were not a far greater proportion of people who are here because they are generically interested in tech topics and not specifically startups This is certainly me. Generally interested in tech (and many of the other things that HNers seem to be interested in these days), but no real interest in startups. Hope I am not ruining HN for the old timers. I started using this place a lot more in…

This was always me, and I've been here 15 years. It was pretty much a tech forum then (arguably more then than now, there's much more discussion of culture war issues now, even when stories are flagged it's ever-present in the comments). I think the time when HN was primarily startups was much further back and much briefer than most people nostalgically remember.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#79

Post by laserlight »

Traubenfuchs wrote: post #58
KaiserPro wrote: post #17

I think the bigger issue is that most of the financial upsides of startups were illusory Unless you're a founder, you're unlikely to make any money, and predatory VC/backers using convertibles/senior debt to turn your equity into Zimbabwean dollars. Thats before any stats are calculated for lasting long enough to either IPO, make money or get bought out. As someone who did successfully exit, the stories of multiple-m…

If you join early, got plenty of stock options and the startup turns into a unicorn, those millions are totally possible. Until then, naturally, it's all paper money. A bet. Maybe an investment, of your time and effort. The majority of startups fail and the majority of startups having an IPO will not make anyone rich via stock grants. It's definitely a safer bet to find a high paying job in a stable company.

> If you join early, got plenty of stock options and the startup turns into a unicorn, those millions are totally possible.

GP comment argues correctly that there's no guarantee that employee stock options will return a profit even in the case of successful exits. Valuation multiples, senior debt, clawback options (see Skype exit [0]), fractional stocks being rounded down to zero after stock splits have all been implemented successfully by startups and VCs. I wouldn't invest my time, which is very precious compared to my capital, into any company that is managed by someone I don't know personally. I would rather earn surplus money to invest into high risk high return options. Treat startup equity as a lottery ticket and don't pay too much for one.

[0] Skype options turn out to be worthless. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2692985

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#80

Post by TeMPOraL »

sureglymop wrote: post #24
tossandthrow wrote: post #5

IMHO building startup became a status symbol which means that the payment in respect for making a courageous adventure is lost and commoditized. We are slowly seeing the same for academia. Point 2 resonates with me. Risk adjusted it is very unlikely that one will make a reasonable salary doing startups. So it is conviction and heart that needs to drive it. For me, the main issue is that every time I voice the idea ab…

I highly agree. And I think in practice, what is driven by curiosity and passion ends up being a better product. I think part of the reason why is that all over social media and the internet there are gurus telling people "you can be the next to be rich and you deserve it". But that's the wrong motivation to have ingrained in every potential founder.

> in practice, what is driven by curiosity and passion ends up being a better product.

If it can survive. The problem here is that startups compete in the same economy as those more sustainable, passion-driven businesses - and because of their ruthless focus on growth, as well as access to vastly more capital, they win, effectively suppressing good products or outright preventing them from entering the market.

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