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Insurers Are Deserting Homeowners as Climate Shocks Worsen

nytimes.com

71–80 of 90 posts

Re: Insurers Are Deserting Homeowners as Climate Shocks Worsen

#71

The climate is changing and is affecting regions we knew would be impacted by climate change 30+ years ago. The insurance companies cannot make a profit (and thus would not choose to operate) in these areas now that they're being impacted by climate change. On one hand this seems like the market working exactly as it should be. People should've moved out of these regions in the last 30 years given the information abo…

I disagree. In my area several insurers have pulled out because of "fire risk" in areas with very little fire risk. (In one case, we're talking about a coastal home, well outside of any 100-year sea-level rise risk, where peak temperatures in the summer are typically in the 65 F, things never dry out, and the house is 4 blocks from the fire station.) The problem is that the state mandates they use certain maps to ass…

> The problem is that the state mandates they use certain maps to assess risk, so the insurance company can't really use their own data to produce maps with higher resolution.

Are there particular reason(s) why this is being mandated? Can you point to particular examples of these mandates?

Re: Insurers Are Deserting Homeowners as Climate Shocks Worsen

#72
post #37

The climate is changing and is affecting regions we knew would be impacted by climate change 30+ years ago. The insurance companies cannot make a profit (and thus would not choose to operate) in these areas now that they're being impacted by climate change. On one hand this seems like the market working exactly as it should be. People should've moved out of these regions in the last 30 years given the information abo…

The other hand, while very sad, is an investment mistake of each individual. 'How could I have known' is same as complaining certain stocks lost its value unexpectedly and retirement savings are now halved. In fact, most of these places were not OK decades ago but folks love cheap real estate and who gives a fuck about some doomsaying science, the cheaper the better, what could go wrong right? Either insurances mark…

The photos are not representative of the kind of homeowner who does all the prescribed mitigation yet still doesn’t gain on premiums or coverage.

In Colorado, the maps are fairly transparent, yet I get the feeling that mitigation work is ineffective within predictions based on newer data.

https://archive.ph/O8j2m

Re: Insurers Are Deserting Homeowners as Climate Shocks Worsen

#73
post #28

[flagged]

I don’t think this is the thread to launder your IQ ideas.

I needed an example that was comparable to climate change denial from the other side to prove my point. You’re never going to convince my mom that a McMansion in the suburbs with a pool and an SUV probably should be illegal, for the same reason you won’t convince a bunch of other people that a key cause of crime is behavioral and cognitive factors. Both attack core ideological premises and also what people want to be true.

Re: Insurers Are Deserting Homeowners as Climate Shocks Worsen

#74
post #22

>Communities that are deemed too dangerous to insure face the risk of falling property values, which means less tax revenue Now that is the funnest quote I have seen in 2024. I would love to know what government will lower your property tax if your house value falls ? I have never seen that happen ever nor do I know anyone who has seen that happen over the past 40 years.

It is tradition to contest the annual re-evaluations of the assessment of your home as that's exactly how your property taxes are based. The only time it is good for an owner's property's assessment to go up is when they are wanting to sell it. The rest of the time, they are constantly fighting to keep it low specifically because of taxes. You must live in a state without property taxes, or you just have no idea how…

The assessed value of your home determines your share of the total tax to be collected.

If your assessed value goes down but all the rest stay the same, yes, your tax bill will go down. But if all assessed values go down by the same percentage, no your tax bill will not go down.

And this is the kicker: if all the houses close to the river or the seashore have their assessed value go down because of the flooding risk while all the other houses stay the same, their tax bills go up. So they really have a big incentive to not let that happen.

Re: Insurers Are Deserting Homeowners as Climate Shocks Worsen

#75
post #61
post #28

[flagged]

> well supported scientific explanations that are politically unpleasant—you need to pay more for energy, criminals are low IQ and low impulse control Do you mean to say that low IQ and low impulse control are the "well supported scientific" explanation for crime? That seems wildly improbable. Ted Kaczynski being the obvious counterexample, but there are many other premeditated criminals who are intelligent. And that…

[flagged]

Re: Insurers Are Deserting Homeowners as Climate Shocks Worsen

#76
post #75
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> well supported scientific explanations that are politically unpleasant—you need to pay more for energy, criminals are low IQ and low impulse control Do you mean to say that low IQ and low impulse control are the "well supported scientific" explanation for crime? That seems wildly improbable. Ted Kaczynski being the obvious counterexample, but there are many other premeditated criminals who are intelligent. And that…

[flagged]

It doesn't matter what I think, it's blatantly and obviously false.

Ted Kazcynski, Charles Manson, Bernie Madoff, Jeffrey Epstein are convicted criminals whose crimes cannot be blamed on IQ nor impulse control.

Re: Insurers Are Deserting Homeowners as Climate Shocks Worsen

#77
post #60

The issue here has less to do with climate change itself and more to do with a combination of regulatory and economic factors. While left-leaning outlets might point to climate change as the primary cause, the reality is more nuanced—similar issues are visible in other sectors, such as health insurance. Here are a few key points to consider: - Insurance Company Consolidation: As the industry consolidates, large insur…

> The issue here has less to do with climate change itself and more to do with a combination of regulatory and economic factors.

The issue is not that the insurance regulations have tightened or changed. The issue is that the climate risks have heightened and the regulations have NOT changed to match the heightened climate risks.

Small increases in average temperature of the air leads to large decreases in average moisture content of brush and vegetation, making fires more common and more likely to impact more homes. The insurers have the data, that's why they are acting the way they are. Fires are more common and fires are larger. Not politics. Actuarial data compiled by insurance companies. If you've spent any time with insurance CEOs, you'll know they are not bleeding heart liberals. They tend to be very conservative and very data driven. And they have the data and it impacts their business.

The regulatory issue is that, to prevent historical forms of bad behavior on the part of insurers, state regulators require that insurers can only set pricing for fire insurance (for example) on the basis of historical data, not on the basis of forward-looking projections. That's the right thing for regulators to do in normal circumstances, when the risk environment isn't changing, but if the risk environment is changing it means you as an insurer will need to pay out money in the future at a higher rate than you did in the past, but you can only collect money based on lower historical payout rates. You are, in practice, required by the regulators to now offer your product at a loss not because the regulations changed but because the average daily temperature is increasing ever so slightly but just enough to significantly increase your cost. You don't want to offer a product at a loss, so you leave the market.

As to why insurance is a regulated industry, in large part that's because insurance is one of the few products the government requires you to purchase, distorting the market, and also in large part because there are massive asymmetries of information between consumer and provider - insurance companies have much more information about risks than insurance customers do, which prior to regulation led to abusive practices on the part of the insurers, in ways that led voters to say "this is a problem that needs to be fixed."

All big problems are hard, and insurance regulation is a big hard problem. If you just say "the environment is changing, so insurers should be able to set prices based on forward-looking projections" you help with the climate pricing increases but are likely to get other unrelated bad behavior at the same time (forward-looking projections are notoriously easy to fudge or fake in ways that are massively favorable to the person making the projections). If you don't allow for forward-looking projections, you lose insurers, if you do allow for it, you get abuses. "Just do it the right way" is much easier to demand in a blog post or comment thread than it is to deliver in legislation.

Re: Insurers Are Deserting Homeowners as Climate Shocks Worsen

#78

The climate is changing and is affecting regions we knew would be impacted by climate change 30+ years ago. The insurance companies cannot make a profit (and thus would not choose to operate) in these areas now that they're being impacted by climate change. On one hand this seems like the market working exactly as it should be. People should've moved out of these regions in the last 30 years given the information abo…

I disagree. In my area several insurers have pulled out because of "fire risk" in areas with very little fire risk. (In one case, we're talking about a coastal home, well outside of any 100-year sea-level rise risk, where peak temperatures in the summer are typically in the 65 F, things never dry out, and the house is 4 blocks from the fire station.) The problem is that the state mandates they use certain maps to ass…

> we're talking about a coastal home, well outside of any 100-year sea-level rise risk, where peak temperatures in the summer are typically in the 65 F

If you're talking about a coastal California home, the risk you're facing is the overall risk across California as a whole. The California insurance regulator is requiring insurers to continue to offer coverage in fire-prone areas in addition to fire-rare areas. All insurance products are based on statistical averages. This is a question of what homes are included in that statistical average. If insurers are required to offer products to customers in fire-prone areas, then insurers need to include statistics on fire-prone area homes when pricing for all other homes.

If California changes its rules and stops requiring insurers to offer insurance in fire-prone areas, huge regions of California would become uninsurable for fire, which means mortgages cease to be available in those regions, which means housing prices collapse, which means politicians and the state insurance regulator get voted out of office.

For elected officials, if the choice is whether to have all non-fire-area homeowners somewhat pissed or to have all fire-area homeowners carrying pitchforks into the legislature, they'll take the somewhat pissed option every time.

Re: Insurers Are Deserting Homeowners as Climate Shocks Worsen

#79
post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't want to make any claims, though. I'd be much happier in a position where I'm totally unable to make claims. (And don't have to deal with the insurance industry.) I'd even pay good money for (de facto-) fake insurance, just so mandates and overly-bureaucratic clients/partners leave well enough alone.

I don't want to make any claims, though. I think you're missing the point of why these "overly-bureaucratic clients" are insisting on insurance. I don't want you to have insurance to keep you safe, I need you to have insurance to keep me safe. When the widget you built for me breaks and damages my customer and I end up owing them €1m, I want to be able to recoup at least some of that cost from you. It won't be you ma…

> When the widget you built for me breaks and damages my customer and I end up owing them €1m, I want to be able to recoup at least some of that cost from you.

I'm not sure that follows.

I build something, send it to you. You integrate it, test it, make it production-ready, and ship it. If something breaks in testing, that's pretty normal, and it would be on me to fix -- and presumably contractual agreements would preclude damages at that stage.

If something breaks after you ship it to your own customer, that really ain't my responsibility. If you try to make it my responsibility, it would be a matter for the courts and not a matter for insurance. If you're looking for a quick payout from insurance, or if you think that insurance companies are less motivated to defend claims in court, that's reasonable -- but it's by no means necessary, and certainly not a social good. Insurance sets up incentive problems that ought to be avoided.

Re: Insurers Are Deserting Homeowners as Climate Shocks Worsen

#80
post #76
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

It doesn't matter what I think, it's blatantly and obviously false. Ted Kazcynski, Charles Manson, Bernie Madoff, Jeffrey Epstein are convicted criminals whose crimes cannot be blamed on IQ nor impulse control.

Both things are true: https://www.realclearscience.com/blog/2021/10/12/why_do_geni... (“Crime is typically thought of as a low-IQ activity, and most scientific research bears this out. Lower levels of intelligence are broadly associated with increases in criminal behavior, though the exact reasons for this correlation are heavily debated. Curiously, however, this trend doesn't seem to hold for individuals whose IQ scores place them in the top 0.1% of intelligence.”).
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