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Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

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Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#71

Post by throw0101d »

sedan_baklazhan wrote: post #14
the_mitsuhiko wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is not the planes, but the maintenance requirements for the engines on those planes and Russia cannot do any maintenance due to the sanctions. In general flying in Russia has been a pretty questionable experience since the beginning of the war. Their regulator is still barely functional at this moment and a lot of secrecy is happening. For instance you will find barely any incidents reports any more. We h…

I haven't heard of any accidents in civilian air traffic in Russia in last few years. Of course you're free to make your choices. Anyway, don't overestimate the issue: 2.5% of the fleet seems to be grounded right now.

> I haven't heard of any accidents in civilian air traffic in Russia in last few years.

Do we count the (possible) "on-purposes" in the accident† count?

* https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66599733

† "Accident" is discouraged as a term, generally speaking: https://crashnotaccident.com

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#72

Post by ivan_gammel »

dismalaf wrote: post #61
cen4 wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The sanctions don't have a goal. So anyone can say anything. Besides Air Transport is a small ass part of GDP. Their MIL complex is on over drive, more than compensating for whatever hits the other sectors are taking. Their GDP is growing faster that all other major Western Economies. The US & EU are not serious about winning this war, mostly because they don't have confidence in themselves that they can.

> Their GDP is growing faster that all other major Western Economies Growth that depends entirely on government spending can only last so long... First you blow all your reserves, then if/when you start printing money and hyperinflation kicks in even if the nominal GDP in the domestic currency appears to be rising, real GDP falls fast. Because Russia's essentially a petro-state, they had sizable cash reserves with wh…

>Now you can see with the price of the Ruble that they've run out of the will to prop it up using foreign reserves (probably running low on foreign currency)

It’s not that simple. I don’t think Russia is low on foreign currencies. Due to sanctions and effects of war spending Russian economy doesn’t behave as a normal one. Recession is going to happen, sure, because the current high demand on domestic market is matched by credit-driven growth of supply. As soon as war spending drops, demand weakens and interest rate drops, but some of the businesses which play the chicken game with central bank will have problems. So yes, recession is going to happen. But they will not burn foreign reserves to zero, simply because some of them are frozen and some are in rupees and yuan, which are not easily convertible.

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#73

Post by lawn »

jdalgetty wrote: post #36

At this point, what would Russia have to do to get back onside with the rest of the world? Obviously, ending the conflict with Ukraine is the first step, but what else would they need to do? How long would it take for them to get out of the doghouse, so to speak?

They can follow the leads of Japan and Germany.

Unconditional surrender, with a complete cultural restructure and admitting to the atrocities, and prosecuting everyone responsible is a good start.

But of course, that won't happen anytime soon.

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#74

Post by lawn »

tehjoker wrote: post #54

Why don't we just do a peace deal? Over a million have died over nothing so far.

All Russia have to do is back away you know.

What? They don't want to?

Then maybe we can just forget about the genocide, give Russia time to rebuild their forces and recover their economy, so they can repeat the process in a couple of years?

(While allowing them to continue their genocide on occupied territory. But at least we don't have to read about it!)

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#75

Post by ivan_gammel »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #65
the_mitsuhiko wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is correct. The Russian economy is doing fine. The Russian economy is doing "mixed". It's a war economy which can be propped up for quite a while but it has significant structural issues that will take years to repair. The country won't fail, but it will further struggle because of the decisions made my leadership. I find this general attitude of "Russia has no issues" that are going around on the internet qui…

> country won't fail, but it will further struggle because of the decisions made my leadership It’s removing itself as a conventional threat to Europe for generations to come. And as much as Beijing is a rival to Washington, they’re rational in a way Moscow is not. Russia as a Chinese suzerainty is probably a better world configuration than Russia as a sovereign regional power. > find this general attitude of "Russia…

> It’s removing itself as a conventional threat to Europe for generations to come

How? Surely not in military sense. If anything, they gained experience of modern drone warfare and tested and refined their technology.

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#76

Post by ivan_gammel »

protomolecule wrote: post #51
ethbr1 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point of modern sanctions is not that it makes import impossible (look at Russian circumvention for dual-use military technologies), but that it makes import at whole-economy scale more expensive and unreliable. And ultimately that's what imposes economic costs. It'll be curious how much of the gap is filled by substitute Chinese goods. (E.g. the domestic CFM-alternative engine projects [0]) With the wrinkle that…

[flagged]

No, Russia doesn’t. Those engines are tested, i.e. still in development, not in serial manufacturing. The first shipments were pushed back by 3 years and the planned production volume reduced recently. There’s still risk that this is going to happen again, so we won’t see first commercial flights on those engines for several years. And existing fleet degrades faster.

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#77

Post by sedan_baklazhan »

cooljacob204 wrote: post #68
sedan_baklazhan wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you serious? Look up SSJ-100 production numbers.

Compared to other airliners those production number are small.

Russia only needs to supply herself, not other markerts. Which manufacturers do you compare with?

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#78

Post by loeg »

otabdeveloper4 wrote: post #58
audunw wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess we don’t say that USA had “sanctions” against the Soviet Union, but there was a monumental improvement in economic relations after the Soviet Union collapsed, no? So we have a direct example from history from the same region. I would say that Vietnam also shows that economic relations can improve a lot even without a fundamental change in the regime. China is also an example where economic relations improved.…

> but there was a monumental improvement in economic relations after the Soviet Union collapsed, no? No. None of the sanctions levied against the USSR were lifted and still technically apply to Russia. (Enforcing them is another matter.) > I don’t think any leader of any country wants to end up like North Korea North Korea is doing better than South Korea on every metric except "consumer goods availability" and "inte…

> North Korea is doing better than South Korea on every metric except "consumer goods availability" and "international relations".

This is very, very false and a pretty strong signal there's no useful discussion to have here.

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#79

Post by slater »

hammock wrote: post #26
slater wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is a ~95% seat occupancy considered bad...?

Counterintuitively, yes, because air travel is a Cournot good and you grow/make money by expanding supply (more planes), which they can’t

Gotcha, thanks!
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