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Breaking Down OnlyFans' Economics

matthewball.co

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Re: Breaking Down OnlyFans' Economics

#71

Post by debacle »

paulpauper wrote: post #33
CSMastermind wrote: post #28

I have a buddy how likes to tell how he "had the idea for Onlyfans first" but I advised him not to pursue it. The reality is that OnlyFans wasn't the first to try this model. You have to give them credit for successfully building the business, especially with several close calls between them and government regulations.

It was covid Otherwise, paid porn was already on the downswing due to the rise of free tube sites. Onlyfans somehow got men paying for porn again.

Onlyfans is more than porn. DMs with your "star" (her assistant), exclusive content, and other parasocial interactions create a kind of connection that is a lot deeper than just porn.

When you can combine that experience with AI generated content, you will create something that I don't think anyone fully understands the ramifications of yet.

Re: Breaking Down OnlyFans' Economics

#72

Post by dgfitz »

kiba wrote: post #65
jjmarr wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your assumption is that the status quo provides those things. Nowadays, people will break up as soon as they get "the ick" or just have a rotating group of people they see. Lasting relationships are much less common than they used to be because it's easier to switch partners. People just want to chase a local maximum of constant validation that they're pretty/smart/correct. They don't see or understand the value in w…

The whole point of having fights and arguments at just the right level is to maximize engagement, retention and ultimately making money for the corporation. I was imagining the most diabolical addictive AI girlfriend. That's necessarily going to include 'negative' elements.

I completely agree with your point, if it is that ai will be twisted to generate a significant other that will essentially become addictive. I get very uncomfortable thinking about that reality.

Re: Breaking Down OnlyFans' Economics

#73

Post by __rito__ »

CSMastermind wrote: post #28

I have a buddy how likes to tell how he "had the idea for Onlyfans first" but I advised him not to pursue it. The reality is that OnlyFans wasn't the first to try this model. You have to give them credit for successfully building the business, especially with several close calls between them and government regulations.

This is relevant: https://x.com/cyantist/status/1832921451986632777

A similar app creator talks about her experience and why it failed.

Re: Breaking Down OnlyFans' Economics

#74

Post by jjmarr »

bitzun wrote: post #60
jjmarr wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your assumption is that the status quo provides those things. Nowadays, people will break up as soon as they get "the ick" or just have a rotating group of people they see. Lasting relationships are much less common than they used to be because it's easier to switch partners. People just want to chase a local maximum of constant validation that they're pretty/smart/correct. They don't see or understand the value in w…

> people in their teens and early 20s are being hooked en masse. Any reference for the scale of this? It feels unlikely to me from my bubble but I only know one or two people I think would be likely to try it.

https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/is-ai-c...

The biggest callout is that NSFW AI already has 10% relative market share compared to OnlyFans. And there are no frontier models in that market.

Re: Breaking Down OnlyFans' Economics

#75

Post by safety1st »

tennisflyi wrote: post #7

Seminal article (I guess), https://xsrus.com/the-economics-of-onlyfans > It’s just as easy to imagine demand for the “real thing” going down due to the emergence of more substitutes as it is to imagine the premium for parasocial authenticity going up. And yet only Generative AI “creators” will truly do whatever “you” want and only for you. And unlike real ones, they speak in every language and are available at any ti…

There are a few key points to understanding the OnlyFans business which are not covered by either article (and the one on xsrus.com is pretty old and is off by several billions regarding revenue now).

* Point #1, OnlyFans is the biggest thing in porn by far, its rise is meteoric.

* Point #2, OnlyFans is in the business of selling relationships. It's not a tech company and attempts to analyze it as such are therefore off the mark. Customers pay OnlyFans because they feel they are obtaining a relationship with the model, that she is aware of them and responding to them in a personalized fashion.

* Point #3, The relationships OnlyFans sells are fraudulent - a high percentage of customers actually believe they are talking to the model. In reality none of the models who are successful have time to talk to fans, everything is outsourced. Some models run their own accounts but most of the time it is more professionalized with a pimp/production company behind the scenes who just orders pictures and clips from the model, so the intimacy the customer is buying is a lie.

* Point #4, and this may be the biggest one explaining OF's meteoric rise, OF creators are allowed to advertise via their social media profiles, whereas a conventional porn site is not. Reddit, X and Instagram are all massive drivers of OnlyFans traffic and signups. The business model is that softcore porn is hosted on these social media sites, which makes tons of money for the social media sites, and then there is a link or mention to the OnlyFans profile where OF delivers the service for whales who want to escalate their porn consumption.

I'll say it again, the key innovation in the OnlyFans business model is that they figured out how to get women to advertise their service on Instagram. Not a tech company.

Another significant takeaway is that since OF's product is fundamentally a lie, the social media giants are indirectly profiting from fraud.

Re: Breaking Down OnlyFans' Economics

#76

Post by qingcharles »

doix wrote: post #30
CSMastermind wrote: post #28

I have a buddy how likes to tell how he "had the idea for Onlyfans first" but I advised him not to pursue it. The reality is that OnlyFans wasn't the first to try this model. You have to give them credit for successfully building the business, especially with several close calls between them and government regulations.

Yeah, I'm sure millions of people had this idea. My friends and I talked about it at some point as well. The problem is the payment processor. How the heck do you accept adult-content related payments? That is the hardest problem to solve when it comes to these things in my book.

OnlyFans banned adult content at one point:

https://www.theverge.com/2021/8/24/22639356/onlyfans-ceo-tim...

Recently they've tried to launch OFTV to try and build up more regular (non-spicy) paid content, but it's a tiny fraction of their revenue I would imagine.

Re: Breaking Down OnlyFans' Economics

#77

Post by jjmarr »

kiba wrote: post #65
jjmarr wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your assumption is that the status quo provides those things. Nowadays, people will break up as soon as they get "the ick" or just have a rotating group of people they see. Lasting relationships are much less common than they used to be because it's easier to switch partners. People just want to chase a local maximum of constant validation that they're pretty/smart/correct. They don't see or understand the value in w…

The whole point of having fights and arguments at just the right level is to maximize engagement, retention and ultimately making money for the corporation. I was imagining the most diabolical addictive AI girlfriend. That's necessarily going to include 'negative' elements.

Implementing the cycle of abuse in an AI partner could be as impactful as the invention of the cigarette.

I'm now very concerned about hypothetical young men who enter into relationships with AI in university or high school, then graduate and have an algorithm abuse and take their money.

Re: Breaking Down OnlyFans' Economics

#78

Post by monero-xmr »

ldjkfkdsjnv wrote: post #17

OnlyFans is run by a very small tight knit group of people. A while back, I sat at a poker table in vegas with one for 5 hours. We discussed technology and the future of OF. I was offered a job to run a technology team there - often think I made a mistake not taking it.

I know this team also. Very tight group that came from a prior failure. Very focused and knowledgeable of legal minefields.

Re: Breaking Down OnlyFans' Economics

#79

Post by kylehotchkiss »

evantbyrne wrote: post #70
kylehotchkiss wrote: post #46

I find myself a little sad at how lucrative a job this will appear for an entire generation. $1500 average creator pay is higher than 40 hours a week minimum wage.

Who do you know that's making $9/hour avg today? That's what I was earning at a student job back in 2010.

16 states still have minimum wage at $7.25/hour https://www.ncsl.org/labor-and-employment/state-minimum-wage... and I presume there still exist employers who don’t offer much more.

Re: Breaking Down OnlyFans' Economics

#80

Post by willcipriano »

jjmarr wrote: post #77
kiba wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The whole point of having fights and arguments at just the right level is to maximize engagement, retention and ultimately making money for the corporation. I was imagining the most diabolical addictive AI girlfriend. That's necessarily going to include 'negative' elements.

Implementing the cycle of abuse in an AI partner could be as impactful as the invention of the cigarette. I'm now very concerned about hypothetical young men who enter into relationships with AI in university or high school, then graduate and have an algorithm abuse and take their money.

Your AI girlfriend that goes from crisis to crisis but with microtransactions.

"I need $34.99 for storage space or they are going to delete me, please save me white knight!"

"The met a nice guy yesterday and he was able to afford my premium package, the one that lets me feel more emotions, I just don't know if I feel for you like I once did..."

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