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Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

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Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#71

Post by nelsonic »

KaiserPro wrote: post #24
nelsonic wrote: post #13

The author of this article doesn't understand how continuous improvement in software works ... Saying that it will "never" work is myopic. Never bet against Moores Law or Elon! As a Tesla M3 owner (in Europe where we don't have FSD yet) I cannot wait to have it for long road trips on highways where I want to relax and have a "copilot" do some of the "thinking" & driving for me. Yes, there are still some instances of…

> Saying that it will "never" work is myopic. The implication is that Tesla can't make it work. In the same way that Meta are unlikley to make AR glasses a "thing". > As a Tesla M3 owner (in Europe where we don't have FSD yet) I cannot wait to have it for long road trips on highways where I want to relax and have a "copilot" do some of the "thinking" & driving for me. depending on which country you are in, you'll be…

If people are already using FSD (supervised) on a daily basis, it's working. It's not "Level 5" yet, but they don't claim it is. Totally agree that the "Full Self Driving" name is marketing BS. What should they call it instead? "Kinda Works Autonomous Driving, Please Pay Attention" ... ;-)

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#72

Post by seeekr »

erulabs wrote: post #45
mg wrote: post #37

I think a good indicator if it is useful or not is to look at how much it is actually used. Tesla published a chart of cumulative miles driven over time on page 8 of their latest quarterly update: https://digitalassets.tesla.com/tesla-contents/image/upload/... So far, I'm not sure what to make of it. The chart looks somewhat exponential. But since they brought more and more cars onto the road, one would expect expone…

Around then they rolled out a change that I hate, which was to remove cruise control and replace it with self-driving. Previously “one tap” was cruise, two was self-drive. Now it’s right into self-drive. I assume that increased hours significantly.

They just changed the assignments of what tapping the right stalk once vs twice does -- before, once brought you into cruise control and twice into autopilot. After the change, that order is reversed by default, but you can change that from the settings.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#73

Post by make_it_sure »

tsimionescu wrote: post #47
nelsonic wrote: post #13

The author of this article doesn't understand how continuous improvement in software works ... Saying that it will "never" work is myopic. Never bet against Moores Law or Elon! As a Tesla M3 owner (in Europe where we don't have FSD yet) I cannot wait to have it for long road trips on highways where I want to relax and have a "copilot" do some of the "thinking" & driving for me. Yes, there are still some instances of…

"It's only a matter of time" means nothing. It was only a matter of time in Cesar's age before we got supercomputers and planes. Tesla is near the bottom of the pack on self-driving tech, with no real hopes of going beyond the level 2 self-driving of FSD, which is objectively worse than just driving yourself. There are already multiple companies with either actual self-driving fleets (e.g. Waymo) or limited use cases…

you're so wrong. do more research. Driving on a geo-fenced area is much much simple than what Tesla is trying. Eventually they can do that as well without problems if they can't generalise.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#75

Post by jasoncartwright »

iknowstuff wrote: post #20
Shank wrote: post #19

This pretty much jibes with my experience. Autopilot has phantom breaking still, but navigate-on-autopilot feels more predictable on the freeway and more useful than FSD. The fact that v12 has “exited beta” and is now the “Supervised” mode doesn’t give me confidence right now. The iterative progress it went through during the beta was really good — I felt that each point release was getting closer to a polished syste…

FSD 12 is not used on freeways. City streets only. You’re observing behavior of the old stack if you’re seeing notices for lane change reasoning. They’ll be unifying it later this year.

Ah yes, of course - we just have to wait for the next version. The response seen in the Twitter replies, YouTube comments and now HN comments to descriptions of FSD foulups for the best part of a decade now.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#76

Post by hankman86 »

nelsonic wrote: post #13

The author of this article doesn't understand how continuous improvement in software works ... Saying that it will "never" work is myopic. Never bet against Moores Law or Elon! As a Tesla M3 owner (in Europe where we don't have FSD yet) I cannot wait to have it for long road trips on highways where I want to relax and have a "copilot" do some of the "thinking" & driving for me. Yes, there are still some instances of…

I wonder if the rules of continuous improvement apply to ML models. It seems that regressions are very easy to pick up. And that with a complex task like FSD it is virtually impossible to use the established tools to safeguard the stack from regressions (i.e. test cases that assert some unbroken functionality).

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#77

Post by Kwpolska »

zeeZ wrote: post #7

> I assume it would have corrected itself eventually and gone back onto the main lane. > Another case where I’m sure it would have corrected itself eventually [...]. Why? That's some bold assumptions. If it's going to fail, let it (as long as it's safe and legal), and see what it actually does.

Why would he do something Tesla should have done? Why would he risk his life for a blog post? He’s a regular person trying to reach his destination, not a Tesla beta tester with Tesla-funded insurance in case the car tries to kills him.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#78

Post by michaelt »

cess11 wrote: post #74
sbt wrote: post #69

Unfortunately, the adaptive cruise control is also far dumber than it thinks it is, slamming the breaks when passing under bridges on the highway etc.

Why? Because of shadows or does it operate on a 2D 'view' of the traffic situation?

IIRC it's an vision-only ML-based system. So the answer to "why" is probably "we don't know lol"

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#79

Post by andoando »

choeger wrote: post #42

What everyone seems to be ignoring when it comes to autonomous cars is that the last 1% or 0.1% or whatever remains unsolvable for "AI" might not really matter. We can change roads, ffs! At the bare minimum, we could fence off difficult areas and force manual driving. Once many people own an autonomous car, there will be pressure to make roads safe and convenient for them. Phantom braking for instance, is only a safe…

Half of the city infrastructure is dedicated to supporting 3000-5000 pounds of highly manufactured metal to move a single 100-200 pound passenger going the same direction as everyone else.

And we want to spends billions on autonomous driving so we can continue being locked in the absolute least efficient solution so we can require manufacturing another $10k or so of equipment on hundreds of millions of cars to enable FSD?

This is a sham sold for the money.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#80

Post by ThereIsNoWorry »

nelsonic wrote: post #13

The author of this article doesn't understand how continuous improvement in software works ... Saying that it will "never" work is myopic. Never bet against Moores Law or Elon! As a Tesla M3 owner (in Europe where we don't have FSD yet) I cannot wait to have it for long road trips on highways where I want to relax and have a "copilot" do some of the "thinking" & driving for me. Yes, there are still some instances of…

> It's real and it's only a matter of time before it's better than humans in most circumstances ...

I heard that argument for many years for many deep learning applications of significant value. Any day now, right?

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