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Don Estridge: A misfit who built the IBM PC

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Re: Don Estridge: A misfit who built the IBM PC

#72

>> His divisional heads always had the same answer. Microcomputers—home computing—were a fad. They were low-cost and low-profit. Let others scrabble around in the metaphorical dirt of home computing. The real money was in the markets that IBM’s divisions already dominated—selling vast mainframes and minicomputer systems to large businesses. Cary was even told to buy Atari, which by then had established itself as Amer…

> Not sure how IBM folks could not see this opportunity just because it was smaller scale than "what they did" They thought it was a fad - that centralized systems (coincidentally, the machines they made) would be the computing platform that people would pay-per-minute/pay-per-hour/pay-per-month to access remotely. They wanted to be an information utility - a supplier to all - instead of selling a small, low margin b…

google, fecebutt, amazon, and azure seem to be doing okay with centralized systems providing continuing revenue

Re: Don Estridge: A misfit who built the IBM PC

#73

For people who are interested in this era, Halt and Catch Fire is a terrific portrayal of the sorts of characters and battles that defined it, albeit from more of a startup perspective. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWrioRji60A

I really enjoyed the first season (especially the first couple of episodes) as the focus of the story is the release of the product and the struggles associated with it.

The second season seems to become the typical personal drama / relationship / betrayal / writers kung-fu story arch / etc. that every series comprising more than one season seems to spiral into these days.

So, highly recommend the first season!

Re: Don Estridge: A misfit who built the IBM PC

#74

I was living in Texas at the time of Flight 191. I was no fan of the IBM PC but it was still gut-wrenching to hear that the father of the machine had been killed. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delta_Air_Lines_Flight_191 This was the crash that brought the term "microburst" into the national consciousness.

Kyra Dempsey wrote about it.

https://admiralcloudberg.medium.com/water-wind-and-fire-the-...

Re: Don Estridge: A misfit who built the IBM PC

#75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

You guys have in fact proven my point by bringing up all two of them.

And since two is more than zero, it's not actually unrealistic to write a fiction about such a character.

A fiction protagonist is often the outlier because they have more interesting interactions than the median type and hence there's more material for the story. This is a pretty basic tenet of drama, not some woke invention.

Re: Don Estridge: A misfit who built the IBM PC

#76
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yup. I'll be covering OS/2 when I look at operating systems in this period. The level of foot-shooting by IBM on that one was ridiculous.

Could IBM have succeeded given Microsoft’s betrayal? Or did Microsoft just give up on IBM ever delivering something?

They had different goals. But it's not clear that Microsoft's goals--a largely hardware-independent OS--ever made sense for IBM. As it turned out, a more proprietary PC architecture didn't really make sense for IBM either but that was sort of beside the point.

Re: Don Estridge: A misfit who built the IBM PC

#77
post #43
post #30

Classic example of Worse is Better. All competing architectures were better than IBM PC architecture, PC BIOS was bad, chosen processor instruction set was the worst, MS-DOS operating system was bad. Only the keyboard was good. What made it winner was open architecture, 80-column screen and IBM name.

I did some historical research to understand why the PC caught on (it made no sense to my 1980s teenage mind). A PC with 80 columns card, 64KB of RAM and a floppy drive cost about the same as an Apple II Plus with the same specs (US$2,700). A BBC Micro would set you back about US$1,500 (£900). It didn't offer slots, but did have 80 columns standard. It also had a lot of ports. You couldn't even argue that the 8088 wa…

not that many people did buy the ibm pc on launch, because you're right. it was released in mid-01981, and sold less than 200'000 in 01982. the commodore 64 sold 360'000 in 01982, and it wasn't even released until halfway through it. apple was selling a billion dollars a year that year, entirely from the apple ][ line; it wouldn't introduce the lisa until the next year. so that's on the order of half a million apple pcs shipped in 01982

i think ibm's reputation was a pretty important factor, not so much for making people buy it (though it did do that) but for convincing them that other people would buy it. it's easy to forget in 02024 just how dominant, and how malignant, that ibm was in the computing world at the time. they'd built aiken's first computer at harvard, they'd introduced ascii (then spent decades battling it—the pc was their first ascii product), they'd invented fortran, they'd invented relational databases (but kept pushing ims), they'd provided the hardware lisp and timesharing were developed on, and they utterly owned business computing, more thoroughly than microsoft does today

pretty quickly there was a lot of software out there for it. partly this was because programmers were convinced that users would buy it, but also, it was easy to port cp/m software to it. at a time when 'serious' pc software was almost entirely in assembly, you couldn't do that with the apple ][+ (unless you bought another computer from microsoft to plug into one of its slots to run cp/m). also, it was easy to make peripherals for it (though this was just as easy for the apple). and microsoft licensed ms-dos to other vendors like tandy and zenith, resulting in not-quite-compatibles like the z-100 (01982), the dec rainbow (01982), the tandy 2000 (01983), and the sharp pc-5000 laptop (01983). the software written for those machines was also usually easily ported to the ibm pc

you know how ebay and airbnb are utterly dominant because they own a two-sided market? if you want a place to stay, you go on airbnb because that's where the listings are, and if you want to rent out a place to travelers, you list it on airbnb because that's where the travelers are? the ibm pc owned a three-sided market: users, software vendors, and peripheral vendors. not at first, of course, but pretty soon; the s-100 systems weren't that dominant in a market fragmented between apple, commodore, atari, osborne, kaypro, etc.

then, once compaq came out with their ibm-compatible portable computer in 01983, ibm didn't own the market anymore. even less once phoenix started selling their bios in 01984. and that was what really made the ibm pc catch on: no single company's missteps could sink the platform the way commodore did with the amiga and the way apple did with the iigs's successors. ibm did in fact try to avoid introducing an 80386-based ibm compatible in order to avoid cannibalizing their minicomputer and mainframe lines, just as apple did with the iigs, so compaq beat ibm to market in 01986. by like a year!

there are also technical questions. the 8088 is a lot faster than the 6502 at running compiled c, especially with the crappy compilers of the time. it's also noticeably faster at numerical code. and the apple ][+ was running its 6502 at 1 megahertz, not 2. the beeb not having slots was a fatal flaw for much of the market; it turns out there are really a lot of peripherals that work badly over a serial port

and once ram prices came down a bit, 640k of ram became standard; the macintosh shipped with 128k in 01984 and quickly changed that to 512k. using 640k of ram on the 8088 was a lot easier than using it on a 6502, although intel's braindamaged segmentation scheme (avoided on the iigs's 65816) forced you to use 'garbage kludges' like lim ems (01985) to use more than a megabyte at all. that there was so much pressure to be able to use more than a megabyte as early as 01985 should tell you something about how far memory prices had come down and how important it was that the 6502 and 8085 couldn't handle more ram

Re: Don Estridge: A misfit who built the IBM PC

#78

>> His divisional heads always had the same answer. Microcomputers—home computing—were a fad. They were low-cost and low-profit. Let others scrabble around in the metaphorical dirt of home computing. The real money was in the markets that IBM’s divisions already dominated—selling vast mainframes and minicomputer systems to large businesses. Cary was even told to buy Atari, which by then had established itself as Amer…

It's close to what Clayton Christensen describes as disruptive innovation (his examples were the steel industry and radio's): incumbents are forced higher up the chain by low quality competitors ("home computers are only good for gaming") that answer an unanswered need well enough. Once these competitors gain a foothold, quality improves and incumbents have less and less of a market.

It’s exactly what CC was writing about. It is the way large organizations think unless someone has the courage to recognize that if they don’t start a new division, some little upstart will eat their lunch. Kodak laughed at the early, feeble digital cameras. Bell Labs sat on DSL because it would kill T1 revenue.

But man is it ever hard to execute. Andy Grove made every exec at Intel read Innovator’s Dilemma, but still it was hard to turn that ship.

Re: Don Estridge: A misfit who built the IBM PC

#79
post #67
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

keyboard wasn't great either, to begin with!

Model M keyboards are ridiculously good. They are consistent for every key, have great tactile feedback and are extremely durable.

The Model M did not appear until 1985, nearly four years after the original IBM PC.
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