Live data from Hacker News

The Mirror Fusion Test Facility (2023)

beautifulpublicdata.com

71–80 of 93 posts

Re: The Mirror Fusion Test Facility (2023)

#71
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We already know everything that’s to know about nuclear weapons if used for defense and deterrence. A pure fusion bomb would be relatively clean so it would be much more tempting to use as a regular weapon. What if Putin had such bombs right now?

Nuclear weapons aren't a deterrent because of radiation. They're a deterrent because they enable an ICBM to destroy a city.

They are not very useful as attack weapons because they contaminate an area and produce fallout. If you can get the explosive power of a nuke without the fallout it's much more tempting to use one.

Re: The Mirror Fusion Test Facility (2023)

#72
post #63
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s an engineering test platform for long duration space flight. Along with the development of reusable rockets we are now almost to the point of being ready to actually go somewhere and do more than just plant a flagpole. Apollo was ridiculously ahead of its time and was not sustainable. The entire stack was disposable and it’s pure luck that we never lost a crew. We needed a project like the ISS to do the real wor…

That's great, except (1) the thermal environment is all wrong, (2) ditto for the radiation environment, (3) that just pushes back the need for justification to long distance spaceflight. Justifications for space activities that amount to "enables other space activities" are an example of what's called a "self-licking ice cream cone". There were plenty of non-self-referential justifications for ISS (like growing prote…

It's really hard to put a dollar value on what the value of having something like SpaceX Starship available is, and it's hard to evaluate what the Starship project would look like if we hadn't put the money into the Apollo/ISS/STS/SLS before.

With the current state of things, I would bet that with a fully reusable orbiter like Starship, space-based solar with microwave transmitters will probably be a cheaper option than fusion. But we should work on both because we can't predict it until both are tried. It's easy to say no to a project when we don't know what the outcome will be, but we need to take on a lot of big risky projects to see which ones give outsized returns.

Re: The Mirror Fusion Test Facility (2023)

#73
post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's great, except (1) the thermal environment is all wrong, (2) ditto for the radiation environment, (3) that just pushes back the need for justification to long distance spaceflight. Justifications for space activities that amount to "enables other space activities" are an example of what's called a "self-licking ice cream cone". There were plenty of non-self-referential justifications for ISS (like growing prote…

It's really hard to put a dollar value on what the value of having something like SpaceX Starship available is, and it's hard to evaluate what the Starship project would look like if we hadn't put the money into the Apollo/ISS/STS/SLS before. With the current state of things, I would bet that with a fully reusable orbiter like Starship, space-based solar with microwave transmitters will probably be a cheaper option t…

SLS only started in 2011. If SpaceX learned anything from it, it was not much and it was after they'd proven themselves. Starship has been quite from-scratch outside of the engines.

Re: The Mirror Fusion Test Facility (2023)

#74
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nuclear weapons aren't a deterrent because of radiation. They're a deterrent because they enable an ICBM to destroy a city.

They are not very useful as attack weapons because they contaminate an area and produce fallout. If you can get the explosive power of a nuke without the fallout it's much more tempting to use one.

That fallout doesn't seem as huge a problem as it is often made out to be. Hiroshima and Nagasaki are not wastelands, they are relatively large cities, and they basically never stopped being ones, even immediately after the bombs fell. The pure destruction of the explosion was a worse problem than the fallout overall - and with today's much higher yields and much more densely populated cities, that seems likely to continue to be the case.

Re: The Mirror Fusion Test Facility (2023)

#75
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nuclear weapons aren't a deterrent because of radiation. They're a deterrent because they enable an ICBM to destroy a city.

They are not very useful as attack weapons because they contaminate an area and produce fallout. If you can get the explosive power of a nuke without the fallout it's much more tempting to use one.

Except this isn't true: the fallout of a nuclear detonation is extremely limited - their physically isn't enough radiological material in the warhead for it to be greater. Troops with chemical suits and respirators could safely operate in a zone which was recently nuked - in fact ground zero is likely to be less contaminated then surrounding areas, since the effect of the blast is to disperse material.

The problem, like all WMDs (weapons of mass destruction), is that they're of limited value against military forces. The distances a military force fights a war over are generally large, and they're mobile - or dug in. The effect of bombarding someone's lines with nuclear weapons though is that you might produce a few holes, but if you tried to advance through them you'd be immediately surrounded since you didn't completely obliterate them.

But they're of devastating effect against civilians, and civilian assets like cities which can be military objectives. Leveling a city rather then taking it is certainly an option, but if that was your plan all along then you could also just drop an ICBM on it - and at that point we're back to "the primary effect of nuclear weapons is making ICBMs useful weapons".

The casualties from a full-scale nuclear war between the United States and Russia were always estimated as "only" being in the hundreds of millions at the top end. But the subsequent famines from the destruction transport and distribution infrastructure, would be in the billions within 6-12 months.

Basically the issue is "tactical" and "strategic" nuclear weapons don't make much a distinction: if it's worth hitting someone's frontlines with a tactical nuke, then why not hit the military base supplying those lines with it? And that base is probably in a city with industry, so why not hit that instead etc. etc. etc.

I suppose another way to put it would be, there's a "hidden" escalation threshold we don't really talk about because no one's been stupid enough to do it: destruction of arable land. You would find that international opinion and weaponry would turn on any country very quickly if they were found to be deliberately targeting and destroying arable land as a policy of invading and denying resources to a neighbor (think literally "salting the earth") on a large, deliberate scale.

Which is all a way of saying, the issue with WMDs is that they're WMDs and WMDs all have broadly similar issues - namely that they will do far more damage to civilians then military targets, even without special preparations, and that they don't allow taking and holding territory. "Clean" nuclear weapons wouldn't change that.

Re: The Mirror Fusion Test Facility (2023)

#76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's really hard to put a dollar value on what the value of having something like SpaceX Starship available is, and it's hard to evaluate what the Starship project would look like if we hadn't put the money into the Apollo/ISS/STS/SLS before. With the current state of things, I would bet that with a fully reusable orbiter like Starship, space-based solar with microwave transmitters will probably be a cheaper option t…

SLS only started in 2011. If SpaceX learned anything from it, it was not much and it was after they'd proven themselves. Starship has been quite from-scratch outside of the engines.

I mean, SLS was definitely a waste of money, and arguably so was STS. But that's easier to say in hindsight, and it's also easy to say in hindsight that SpaceX had an obviously better approach, but that was harder to support in 2011.

Re: The Mirror Fusion Test Facility (2023)

#77

> Only in December of 2022 did scientists at the National Ignition Facility at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory announce that they had achieved the first recorded fusion reaction with a net energy gain We've been achieving fusion reactions with net energy gain since the 1950s, when hydrogen bombs were developed. And, on top of that, the achievement they're talking about was more energy out than light energy…

We already have enough nukes to glass the world several times over.

I doubt you meant that literally, but just to illustrate the gap, let's consider what it would require for just one glassing.

World land area is ~149,000,000 km².

Acknowledged nuclear warheads are ~13,000.

So the average single warhead would somehow need to "glass"--however, thoroughly or deeply you choose to define that--over 11,000 km². For context, that's about one US state of Connecticut or the nation of Qatar.

... So you might say I'm a "glass is nowhere even close to half-full" kinda guy.

Re: The Mirror Fusion Test Facility (2023)

#78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if we do not maintain expertise in nuclear weapons then we will end up like Ukraine.

We already know everything that’s to know about nuclear weapons if used for defense and deterrence. A pure fusion bomb would be relatively clean so it would be much more tempting to use as a regular weapon. What if Putin had such bombs right now?

A pure fusion bomb is also very hard to detect compared to a fission-fusion device.

Re: The Mirror Fusion Test Facility (2023)

#79
post #3

This field is so underfunded, but progress is still being made. Check out Commonwealth Fusion and their progress with insanely powerful compact energy efficient magnets. They recently clocked a stable 20T magnetic field.

Calling fusion research underfunded is rich(no pun intended). Costs for ITER are estimated to 45 to 65 billion USD it's one of the most ambitious and costly science projects in the world to date. That's not even accounting for all the other fusion projects. There are many areas in science that receive significantly less funding. I would also argue that the prevelant perception that fusion would lead to to essentially…

fusion research is underfounded while ITER is overfounded. I worked with it and it is clear that 1) it is too big of a step from the previous nuclear fusion reactor. 2) french regulatory agency is being way too strict 3) the procurement mechanism with in kind contribution has been a total failure.

Re: The Mirror Fusion Test Facility (2023)

#80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The two Santas theory. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jude_Wanniski#The_Two_Santa_Cl...

Not to be confused with the Futurama episode named after this theory, written by Bob Odenkirk, and that definitely lives rent free in my mind. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Tale_of_Two_Santas

*Bill Odenkirk. Bob is his brother
Post reply on HN