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Facebook Bankers Secretly Cut FB Revenue Estimates In Middle Of IPO Roadshow

finance.yahoo.com

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Re: Facebook Bankers Secretly Cut FB Revenue Estimates In Middle Of IPO Roadshow

#71

Post by drsintoma »

jgroome wrote: post #51
drsintoma wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

godaddy? really?

Problem? They're cheap and easy. I imagine you're disappointed because they're not too highly regarded in the tech industry, but honestly you shouldn't expect your personal political beliefs to be held by everybody else.

They might be cheap, but they are far from easy, I would actually qualify it as the most painful purchase process I've ever experienced (my former employer had domains there). And my political beliefs had nothing to do here, technological beliefs at most.

Anyway, Godaddy is where I would expect my father to buy a domain, not someone at HN. Hence my surprise. But turns out the op didn't register the domain himself, he was just pointing it out.

Re: Facebook Bankers Secretly Cut FB Revenue Estimates In Middle Of IPO Roadshow

#72

Post by JumpCrisscross »

joe_the_user wrote: post #59
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #25

The original Reuters article does a better job explaining this than the link-bait title here: http://www.reuters.com/assets/print?aid=USBRE84L06920120522 FB amended their S-1 to lower revenue forecasts. Following that, a research analyst at Morgan Stanley cut his revenue forecast on FB close to their IPO. Nothing here should fire anyone up. Equity research must be conducted independently of the investment bankers' no…

What in particular in your linked article contradicts the original article? 1) The estimates were changed in mid run-up - check 2) This was considered unusual - check (your article, not Henry Blodget, has the screaming caps "very unusual" in it). 3) This may have contributed to Facebook's less than stellar performance - check 4) The estimates were disseminated only to large clients - not confirmed or contradicted, so…

The OP says this is something "buyers deserve to be outraged about". It also insinuates "news of the estimate cut", implying the S1/A, was selectively distributed when it was only the research that was.

Then there is the title and speculation that there were "nods and winks" between the underwriters and equity analysts. I read the S1/A when it came out and came to the same qualitative conclusion (FB guides forecast down -> lower value on stock isn't exactly groundbreaking causation).

Blodget says more than the Reuters wire. The surplus is speculation blended in smoothly with the facts.

Re: Facebook Bankers Secretly Cut FB Revenue Estimates In Middle Of IPO Roadshow

#73

Post by ktizo »

cpeterso wrote: post #62
lukejduncan wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This gives some good color to who's running Business Insider.

Business insiders.

Dangerous assumption. The title might only be a clever ruse. Personally I suspect it is a shadowy cabal of part time gooseberry farmers.

Re: Facebook Bankers Secretly Cut FB Revenue Estimates In Middle Of IPO Roadshow

#74

Post by ktizo »

jpdoctor wrote: post #14
guelo wrote: post #4

It is not possible to trust Wall Street, the whole thing is built on insider trading. They call customers that are not on the inside "dumb money" and unashamedly try to figure out how to take their money.

> It is not possible to trust Wall Street, the whole thing is built on insider trading. As the old saying goes: If you don't know who the sucker at the table is, it's you.

And sometimes it is still you, even when you think you know otherwise.

Re: Facebook Bankers Secretly Cut FB Revenue Estimates In Middle Of IPO Roadshow

#75

Post by [deleted] »

tatsuke95 wrote: post #68
thereason wrote: post #64

I'm loving this sequence of events just for opportunity to see the cognitive dissonance of some HN commenters in action. The FB IPO strategy was to wait for the peak (or "plateau", if you prefer) in their growth, collect money from the public and then, for the insiders, quickly cash out. As for why they wanted to collect money from the public through an IPO, we can call it greed, but truthfully it was also the logica…

I can't help but be disturbed that you've lumped Microsoft in with Facebook and Yahoo...twice. Microsoft is one of the biggest companies in the world, makes a wide variety of products, both physical and digital, did $17BB in revenue in the first quarter of 2012, and has been a public company for over 25 years, returning massive value to its investors. So what do they have in common?

[deleted]

Re: Facebook Bankers Secretly Cut FB Revenue Estimates In Middle Of IPO Roadshow

#76

Post by jacquesm »

tatsuke95 wrote: post #68
thereason wrote: post #64

I'm loving this sequence of events just for opportunity to see the cognitive dissonance of some HN commenters in action. The FB IPO strategy was to wait for the peak (or "plateau", if you prefer) in their growth, collect money from the public and then, for the insiders, quickly cash out. As for why they wanted to collect money from the public through an IPO, we can call it greed, but truthfully it was also the logica…

I can't help but be disturbed that you've lumped Microsoft in with Facebook and Yahoo...twice. Microsoft is one of the biggest companies in the world, makes a wide variety of products, both physical and digital, did $17BB in revenue in the first quarter of 2012, and has been a public company for over 25 years, returning massive value to its investors. So what do they have in common?

That new ideas and innovation can kill them.

Likely in the case of microsoft it will cause them to change, along the lines of how microsoft forced IBM to change.

Re: Facebook Bankers Secretly Cut FB Revenue Estimates In Middle Of IPO Roadshow

#77

Post by [deleted] »

jacquesm wrote: post #76
tatsuke95 wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't help but be disturbed that you've lumped Microsoft in with Facebook and Yahoo...twice. Microsoft is one of the biggest companies in the world, makes a wide variety of products, both physical and digital, did $17BB in revenue in the first quarter of 2012, and has been a public company for over 25 years, returning massive value to its investors. So what do they have in common?

That new ideas and innovation can kill them. Likely in the case of microsoft it will cause them to change, along the lines of how microsoft forced IBM to change.

[deleted]

Re: Facebook Bankers Secretly Cut FB Revenue Estimates In Middle Of IPO Roadshow

#78

Post by CulturalNgineer »

jpdoctor wrote: post #43
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #25

The original Reuters article does a better job explaining this than the link-bait title here: http://www.reuters.com/assets/print?aid=USBRE84L06920120522 FB amended their S-1 to lower revenue forecasts. Following that, a research analyst at Morgan Stanley cut his revenue forecast on FB close to their IPO. Nothing here should fire anyone up. Equity research must be conducted independently of the investment bankers' no…

> link-bait title Oh FFS. Anything from Henry Blodget should immediately be ignored or delinked. The man bilked all sorts of money from widows and orphans (in the form of pensions and mutual funds). Most normal people would want to make amends before showing their face in public, let alone the way he punches up stories. I can't believe I fell for it too. Edit: More sensibly written article in WSJ here - http://online…

If Blodget really bilked money from widows and orphans (and I don't doubt it) how come he's not running a bank? Seems like the perfect item for the resume.

Maybe he's just pissed-off because he was the sacrificial lamb for a lot of other widow-and-orphan-bilkers and wants to make his amends by bringing his old friends to some sort of reckoning?

Re: Facebook Bankers Secretly Cut FB Revenue Estimates In Middle Of IPO Roadshow

#79

Post by RockyMcNuts »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #25

The original Reuters article does a better job explaining this than the link-bait title here: http://www.reuters.com/assets/print?aid=USBRE84L06920120522 FB amended their S-1 to lower revenue forecasts. Following that, a research analyst at Morgan Stanley cut his revenue forecast on FB close to their IPO. Nothing here should fire anyone up. Equity research must be conducted independently of the investment bankers' no…

The problem is there were no revenue forecasts in the S-1. And the subtle change in the S-1 language wasn't an adequate basis for all the analysts to revise their revenue forecasts.

The analysts discussed their own forecasts with Facebook and the result of the discussion was that they lowered their numbers. Companies subtly make their discomfort known if analysts put out numbers they don't think they can beat. See http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/05/22/facebook-i-p-o-raises...

And, since the forecast changes were made with Facebook's implicit approval or at least without Facebook's objection, clients who received those updated forecasts got information from Facebook which was not available to the public in the S-1, or elsewhere.

Re: Facebook Bankers Secretly Cut FB Revenue Estimates In Middle Of IPO Roadshow

#80

Post by tatsuke95 »

jacquesm wrote: post #76
tatsuke95 wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't help but be disturbed that you've lumped Microsoft in with Facebook and Yahoo...twice. Microsoft is one of the biggest companies in the world, makes a wide variety of products, both physical and digital, did $17BB in revenue in the first quarter of 2012, and has been a public company for over 25 years, returning massive value to its investors. So what do they have in common?

That new ideas and innovation can kill them. Likely in the case of microsoft it will cause them to change, along the lines of how microsoft forced IBM to change.

>"That new ideas and innovation can kill them."

What company on the planet does this not apply to?

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