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The End of My Childhood

vitalik.eth.limo

71–80 of 83 posts

Re: The End of My Childhood

#71
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but that’s my point exactly. You need an offramp. The only offramp is someone else (or some exchange) buying your crypto. They would be the “greater fool” in this case. Even if you earn crypto, that crypto came from a “lesser fool.” You’re just the intermediary.

> Sure, but that’s my point exactly. > You need an offramp. > The only offramp is someone else (or some exchange) buying your stocks. > They would be the “greater fool” in this case. > Even if you earn stocks, that stock came from a “lesser fool.” > You’re just the intermediary.

FYI saying that someone else is also a greater fools game, doesn’t do anything to show that crypto isn’t.

Re: The End of My Childhood

#72
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think crypto is inherently a scam - a distributed pyramid scheme. Am I now "people" with "opinions"?

But seriously, there are 1000's of cryptocurencies, you can't logic the possibility that even one was built with 'non-scammy' intentions? Cause 1 is all it takes to refute that 'ceyotocurrencies are inherently a scam'. I'm sure your being vacecious, but there are those that would comment that seriously.

I’m sure that somewhere in crypto land there are people really trying to show the good crypto can bring.

I’m sure a fair amount of them get screwed over by bad actors.

But it’s undeniable that the most successful strategy (at least in terms of gaining popularity) is making a pyramid scheme, but automated.

That may say something more about humans than crypto, but it is what it is.

Re: The End of My Childhood

#73
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Economics is the study of manipulating that power. Hello! Your friendly neighborhood economist here. Economics is the study of resource allocation under scarcity. In your comment, I think you actually mean Game Theory and Mechanism Design, which are about assessing strategic behavior (Game Theory) and about creating mechanisms that align with strategic behavior to result in preferred outcomes (Mechanism Design, sor…

> Hello! Your friendly neighborhood economist here. Economics is the study of resource allocation under scarcity. As an economist, would you be able to explain (because I truely do not understand) why "the study of resource allocation under scarcity" is more important than (and/or prevents) meaningful action on climate change?

> As an economist, would you be able to explain (because I truely do not understand) why "the study of resource allocation under scarcity" is more important than (and/or prevents) meaningful action on climate change?

For my case, it is quite simple -- people have different preferences and switching costs! I chose economics as a field of profession because I felt it explained human behavior much better than anything I'd come across in my life at the ripe old age of 21. Had I started my studies less than two decades ago, I would have invested more in physical sciences (especially hydrological saline exchange and improving soil quality through mycology, both fascinating problems some of my close friends study). This said, my data science company was founded two years ago to focus on impact problems in health, technology, and geopolitics, all of which are becoming more and more impacted by the effects of anthropogenic climate change in addition to just out and out pollution and bad policy effects.

But I think your first question is less why I personally studied computational economics and industrial organization, and more why economics exists when humanity may be facing a global extinction at worst and a loss of living standard at best. And the answer is: economics can be used to help with mitigation (and economists have been calling for effectual policy to address climate change for _decades_ through known effective policies like carbon markets, see subfields that research environmental economics and public economics).

Now, economics can also help understand why we see little meaningful action. Rational people (defined as being able to make comparisons between options presented to them, which simplifies analysis without much loss of generality to cases like bounded rationality) do not choose what is best for a collective (personal happiness/utility) nor what is best for them tomorrow (time inconsistency of preferences) when neither of those have meaningful impact to them today or in the near term. You see this all the time in the startup world and in the corporate world among VCs and executives who are only in things to accomplish short term goals. Self-organizing collective action is _hard_ to generate or maintain without enforcement of some kind.

To explain with a workhorse model regarding collective versus individual action, you can reference the stag hunt game: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stag_hunt. In short, while two individuals engaging for collective action will benefit more in total, there may be incentives to deviate from a collective strategy. People want more _now_, not 75 years from now (beyond the lifetime of the current living).

So TL;DR:

1. Preferences! Or, rather, subjective valuations of research topics by people can vary without applying presentism to near history

2. Because economics can explain failures in collective action, but it doesn't control or recommend against collective action goals. In fact, qualitative economic approaches to policy are often highly successful. So the gap on meaningful action is more related to political will and the incentive to deviate or adopt a policy that isn't Pareto improving.

Re: The End of My Childhood

#74
Yeah, sorry for my lack of awe at 20 year olds wasting time with crypto and being seen as wunderkind. Now that my skepticism is through the roof with this blog, what exactly is anyone doing with synthetic biology that he mentions that’s interesting at the 20 year old hacker house level?

Re: The End of My Childhood

#75
post #11
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not against crypto as a technology, but as a financial tool, how is it not a greater fools game? Broadly speaking, you can’t live on crypto alone. Most people aren’t able to buy food and shelter with it. So the goal, in those majority of cases, is to buy in low for the exact purpose of waiting for a “greater fool” to purchase it from you for more.

No one buys stocks for the hell of it, it is 100% a financial instrument used to profit by the buyer and the seller. If you couldn't sell to someone for a higher price, no one would buy them. If that's your bar, then cryptocurrencies are as legit as stocks as far as a financial tool is concerned. Stocks may arguably have more utility, but for the buyers/sellers, they aren't much more that a speculation instrument. If…

So then crypto, as a financial asset, is a greater fool’s game.

OP said it’s inherently not, which is what I was arguing against.

Re: The End of My Childhood

#76
post #9
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

there's plenty of offramps and onramps from crypto to trad finance. You can earn your money on crypto, get a debit card, and pay for your food and rent with it. I've done it.

Sure, but that’s my point exactly. You need an offramp. The only offramp is someone else (or some exchange) buying your crypto. They would be the “greater fool” in this case. Even if you earn crypto, that crypto came from a “lesser fool.” You’re just the intermediary.

ether, Ethereum's native token, is required to pay for computation on a computer with peculiar properties (publicly visible, unmodifiable, unstoppable code, uncensorable interaction). If somebody finds that useful, he will need ethers, and you will be able to sell them yours. How would he be a (greater) fool?

Re: The End of My Childhood

#77
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Hello! Your friendly neighborhood economist here. Economics is the study of resource allocation under scarcity. As an economist, would you be able to explain (because I truely do not understand) why "the study of resource allocation under scarcity" is more important than (and/or prevents) meaningful action on climate change?

> As an economist, would you be able to explain (because I truely do not understand) why "the study of resource allocation under scarcity" is more important than (and/or prevents) meaningful action on climate change? For my case, it is quite simple -- people have different preferences and switching costs! I chose economics as a field of profession because I felt it explained human behavior much better than anything I…

Thank you. Very digestible. And depressing.

Re: The End of My Childhood

#78
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As an economist, would you be able to explain (because I truely do not understand) why "the study of resource allocation under scarcity" is more important than (and/or prevents) meaningful action on climate change? For my case, it is quite simple -- people have different preferences and switching costs! I chose economics as a field of profession because I felt it explained human behavior much better than anything I…

Thank you. Very digestible. And depressing.

Only to an optimists first challenge. In truth, there are a huge array of tools that work pretty well. Definitely a space to explore, especially for folks that want to make the world a better place.

Re: The End of My Childhood

#79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel the comparison to gold is a bit of a reach. Gold is valuable because: 1. People see it as a store of value 2. It has some useful physical properties 3. People use it as a decoration Possibly there are other reasons as well, but those are the ones that come immediately to mind. As far as I can tell, Bitcoin only shares attribute #1. It doesn’t have intrinsic properties that make it useful into larger systems (t…

It's much easier to transfer bitcoin than it is to transfer gold, so not only does it share #1, it has additional attributes than what you listed. It already is a useful way to exchange value, people do it all the time.

Is this really the case?

Don't most people who invest in gold use ETCs/ETFs, certificates etc.?

I don't think gold trading is significantly far off instantaneous, at this point, and it's probably easier to cash out.

Re: The End of My Childhood

#80
post #14

The author sums up everything that is wrong with crypto in two sentences: > I was getting excited about every new cryptography protocol, and economics too seemed to me to be part of that broader worldview: it's the mathematical tool for understanding and figuring out how to improve the social world. No, it isn't. This kind of hubris is what hides what Crypto is, which is a game of greater fools and nothing more.

Bitcoin has been around for 15 years at this point and there is absolutely no confusion about the technical underpinnings. It has handily survived attempts at government shutdowns in China and serious interest rate hikes. Numerous scams have come, gone and had no impact on hodlers. At this point it is no longer reasonable to just claim it is a greater fools game without an argument for why. The evidence right now see…

Every single one of these shit coins had a bunch of founders that mined all the profit out of it on day one. Everybody else is a sucker, bitcoin included.

The underlying model is corrupt and nakedly stupid.

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