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My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

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Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#71

Post by echelon »

tedajax wrote: post #55
echelon wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Disney and Pixar animation are about to get 10,000x - 100,000x cheaper and accessible to nearly anyone. When applied to the correct domains, AI is incredible.

To actually think this requires nothing but raw ignorance of the creative process.

You can't draw that conclusion from what I said at all. These are tools.

Good web comics and fan fiction require creativity. They're low cost, but high effort endeavors that are achievable by solo creators.

Now there's a path appearing that will give this same class of people the tools to reach new creative heights that most could never achieve by themselves.

This is a good thing. It's a tool. You still have to be an artist to use it effectively.

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#72

Post by kiba »

gumballindie wrote: post #36
kiba wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We don't know what will be at the end of this. It seems that the OpenAI folks are endlessly pursuing the technology of AGI without actually working on making sure that AGI benefit "all of humanity." They haven't even articulate what it means to benefit all of humanity.

OpenAI is a cult. I dont quite understand why they are given so much airtime other than wanting to depress tech wages and drive traffic. Their products dont work as advertised and are built on theft.

I am taking their mission statement seriously even though I am seriously skeptical about AGI. But they don't take their mission statement with any seriousness.

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#73

Post by matt_heimer »

mechagodzilla wrote: post #50
matt_heimer wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure that the physical embodiment needs to be robotic in nature. I'm a physically abled home owner and need to repair my hvac or plumbing. Instead of paying for someone in the trades to come out and do the work for me why can't I just put on a pair of augmented reality glasses and have the AGI use me? The camera and my voice inputs should allow the AGI to diagnose the issue, order needed parts, and then instr…

Even in that very optimistic vision of the future: * You don't have the tools or supplies on hand (just let that pipe keep flooding your basement until an amazon delivery arrives!), and many of them are expensive and sufficiently specialized that a homeowner might only need them 2-3 times in a lifetime. * You don't have any training for using the tools if you had them. * You might not be physically capable of doing t…

That's not optimism, its pessimism. Some wealth company building an app to sell to DIYers that puts trade people out of work all in order to make money seems unlikely to you?

* Every time I've encountered a home owner with a burst pipe or flooding scenario their immediate problem was lack of knowledge on they different ways to shut off the water supply. And if the problem is something as simple as lack of a wrench then you could always go get one faster than an emergency plumber could get onsite.

* The AGI glasses don't need to solve 100% of problems to be disruptive to the skilled trades. No reason they can't refer you to a human specialist. An (outsourced) human could join your AR glasses session (for a cost) and see if they can provide more instruction to both you and the AGI or if referral to a local human was needed. A Google supplied augmented reality AGI could charge users for specialized assistants AND then charge human service providers for higher placement in the referral listing.

* Local tool rental is a common thing, no reason hardware stores couldn't function as a same day fulfilment instead of amazon. And a lot of tools are cheaper to buy even if they only get used once than paying for a single service call.

* Re: tool training - I'm sure the AGI could recommend approaches to avoid tooling where possible. For example recommending shark bite connectors instead of brazing pipes, etc. But yeah, some people just won't have the dexterity to use a hammer. The issue of being able to plaster or finish drywall nicely that vidarh pointed out in another post is also a good example. It might be a boon to the local AR/AGI enhanced handman.

* Agree on roofers and electricians... where the possibility of self harm is high these scenarios are too risky without basic training. Maybe you'd have to get a DIY electricity safety license to unlock that ability in the AGI. Or maybe only apprentice electricians can use the electrical AGI, the result would still be less need for master electricians.

* Re: YouTube - As a DIY homeowner I love youtube but having to wade through hundreds of videos until I find the one video that applies to my scenario is exhausting. An AGI would already be trained on much of that knowledge. It'd lower the barrier. Again it doesn't eliminate the need for the trades but it does disrupt them further than youtube already has.

Think of it more like adding a self-checkout line to the trades. It helps in a lot of scenarios, the casher job role doesn't go away but a lot of people are unemployed or making less money all of a sudden.

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#74

Post by whynotminot »

dbish wrote: post #4
bethekind wrote: post #2

Title should be: " My AI Timelines haven't sped up, but now I think there's a 10% chance of AI dominance in 5 years" His AI timelines haven't sped up, only clarified

It’s also barely clarified and has a ton of false precision problems, which I’d expect a researcher who works in the field not to have. Why 10% vs 20% or 15%, no real reason, just vibes, but it gets clicks.

At some level, isn’t any prediction about the future that involves too many variables somewhat always going to come down to vibes when trying to create a percentage confidence level?

Is there a way to actually mathematically quantify this better? When people make predictions with percentages like this, I understand what they’re trying to communicate, even if the math isn’t precise. There’s a reason all his percentages are in clean multiples of 5.

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#75

Post by anonzzzies »

oblio wrote: post #33
anonzzzies wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the idea of most is that at the time we have AGI, we will robots designing robots that will ‘fix’ AI for the trades.

Ah, yes, that second most famous AI operator after the tensor, the handwaver.

Sure, but that’s what the ‘believers’ usually say.

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#76

Post by idopmstuff »

matt_heimer wrote: post #30
idopmstuff wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I totally agree with this - it always seems like sort of a weird omission when people talk about AGI doing 95% of work without any discussion of robotics. It seems very obvious that you need bipedal robots (or a lot of different types of robots) to hit that number. Do these AGI predictions assume that we'll have those by the time they hit AGI? Or is the word "knowledge" supposed to be implied before the work "work"?…

I'm not sure that the physical embodiment needs to be robotic in nature. I'm a physically abled home owner and need to repair my hvac or plumbing. Instead of paying for someone in the trades to come out and do the work for me why can't I just put on a pair of augmented reality glasses and have the AGI use me? The camera and my voice inputs should allow the AGI to diagnose the issue, order needed parts, and then instr…

I guess at this point it's just a matter of the semantics of what it means to say AGI is doing the work. My feeling is that it's not accurate to say it's doing the work if there's still a layer of human meat sack (not you personally!) interpreting and taking the actual action.

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#77

Post by idopmstuff »

jsharf wrote: post #17
idopmstuff wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I totally agree with this - it always seems like sort of a weird omission when people talk about AGI doing 95% of work without any discussion of robotics. It seems very obvious that you need bipedal robots (or a lot of different types of robots) to hit that number. Do these AGI predictions assume that we'll have those by the time they hit AGI? Or is the word "knowledge" supposed to be implied before the work "work"?…

If we have intelligent AI that can automate programming, then making really good robots will not be a problem. While not trivial, actuators and power systems are not the reason why we don’t have robots that can do all manual labor for us. Software is the reason, and the same kind of software that’s learning to code (machine learning) can also be adapted to washing dishes, folding clothing, doing craft labor or previo…

Totally - but is the AI development of robots included in the timeline for what you're calling AGI? Can we get to AGI without having those robots, and then the AGI designs them?

I think they'll ultimately go hand in hand - this is more just a question of what we're defining AGI to be and whether robotics should be mandatory as part of the stated definition around doing 95% of work.

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#78

Post by spywaregorilla »

ChatGTP wrote: post #49
spywaregorilla wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The more technology can do, the less the workers do, the less workers get paid. Being a servant to people with money is better than being part of their furniture though.

On the other hand , things should get cheaper and more accessible ?

Minimum wages are always going to be defined by scraping by. Definitionally that's just where they get pushed both in terms of wages and prices. But yes, removing skilled labor and replacing it with unskilled labor does mean more perks for the wealthy.

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#79

Post by tedajax »

echelon wrote: post #71
tedajax wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To actually think this requires nothing but raw ignorance of the creative process.

You can't draw that conclusion from what I said at all. These are tools . Good web comics and fan fiction require creativity. They're low cost, but high effort endeavors that are achievable by solo creators. Now there's a path appearing that will give this same class of people the tools to reach new creative heights that most could never achieve by themselves. This is a good thing. It's a tool. You still have to be a…

Believing AI tools are going to give people anything approaching Pixar capabilities demonstrates your ignorance perfectly.

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#80

Post by randyrand »

vallode wrote: post #7

I'm no AI expert, I don't have a lot of domain knowledge but what irks me about reading through this entire blog post is the idea that we are hinging on a definition of AGI that apparently accounts for 95% (!) of "economically valuable work" while basically not talking _at all_ about the trades. No mention of construction, manual labour, mechanics, welders, painters, nothing! Is the author trying to say that all that…

He clarifies later that he is including physical labor (robots).
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