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Spike in short selling in Israeli-company ETF days before Oct 7 [pdf]

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Re: Spike in short selling in Israeli-company ETF days before Oct 7 [pdf]

#71

Post by bhouston »

typon wrote: post #12

The Egyptian intelligence services repeatedly warned of an incoming attack and the Israelis ignored the warnings. Maybe the information was kicked up by the traders? https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67082047.amp

> The Egyptian intelligence services repeatedly warned of an incoming attack and the Israelis ignored the warnings.

Parts of Israeli intelligence also had a lot of advanced warning but it was dismissed by higher ups.

Most likely the trading was based on people who either read the internal Israeli intelligence on this topic or the Egyptian stuff. It is unlikely it was Qatar or Hamas associates, but rather more sophisticated actors who were in the Israeli market already and were used to acting on leaked information.

The main issue is how did someone get a date. The warnings I read were all sort of vague in terms of the exact date, rather specifying the high level plan.

Re: Spike in short selling in Israeli-company ETF days before Oct 7 [pdf]

#72

Post by HillRat »

ninja3925 wrote: post #3

For anybody close to the topic and knowing how shocked the Israeli society was on Oct 7th, this paper makes a very strong claim that needs more than just circumstantial evidence (higher short trades). Like any circumstantial evidence, many reasons could trigger unusual trading patterns

It's interesting but not yet compelling -- there just isn't enough data to support such an explosive claim, but there's enough to at least warrant further investigation. (My skepticism is somewhat heightened by the fact that the paper keeps insisting that their prices are in NIS when they're actually in agorot, basically a cents-not-dollars error on their part. Still talking about millions of dollars in potentially ill-gotten profits, but not nearly the magnitude they allege.)

Re: Spike in short selling in Israeli-company ETF days before Oct 7 [pdf]

#73

Post by sudosysgen »

nolongerthere wrote: post #50

Considering Qatar (and thus by proxy Hamas and Iran) has access to global markets it’s not clear to me why the assumption here is that these moves came from Israeli leadership and not the more likely source… those planning the slaughter who also wanted to benefit economically and not just in blood.

There is currently no evidence that Iran or Qatar knew about the timing of the attacks, and the US's position is that they don't believe it was known.

See : https://www.reuters.com/world/initial-us-intelligence-shows-...

> Initial U.S. intelligence reports show that some Iranian leaders were surprised by the Islamist group's unprecedented attack from Gaza, U.S. sources said on Wednesday.

> A U.S. official said, however, that Iran, Israel's regional arch-foe, had likely been aware that Hamas was planning to take action against Israel "but without the precise timing or scope of what occurred" last weekend.

It's also a fairly low amount of money for already-rich Qatari royalty to risk running afoul of their access to US markets.

Re: Spike in short selling in Israeli-company ETF days before Oct 7 [pdf]

#74

Post by sudosysgen »

DarknessFalls wrote: post #65
zardo wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's no way they let the October 7th that actually happened go off on purpose. They didn't need to take that much of a hit to justify invading a Gaza, and it made them look bad. Which would leave open the possiblity that they "let it happen" thinking the "it" was something much less substantial, but the motive doesn't really make sense to me, because they didn't need to take a hit at all. Just an accusation that H…

Israel never could have launched this extensive a military campaign with international support on the basis of an intelligence report from Egypt, Mossad or otherwise. People would say that any time someone wanted to invade a country without provocation, they could just accuse the other side of wanting to attack. It's also possible that Netanyahu knew of a planned attack but not of the severity. Netanyahu is a hawkish…

I don't think that there is some kind of conspiracy theory here, but there is no reason you'd need an invasion to stop the attack. Simply refraining from moving soldiers outside the Gaza border and into the West Bank would have been sufficient. It was 3000 thousand terrorists with light weapons, it wouldn't have been difficult to stop if Netanyahu hadn't sent so much of the IDF to terrorize civilians in the West Bank and steal their land.

Re: Spike in short selling in Israeli-company ETF days before Oct 7 [pdf]

#75

Post by sudosysgen »

xdennis wrote: post #63
rowanseymour wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's not like Israel has been, or is, a friend of Gaza. So when Gaza was planning the attack This is an odd way to decribe things considering Gaza is not a state. Its population is mostly refugees who were ethnically cleansed from nearby villages and functionally it operates as a concentration camp preventing those people from trying to return to those villages which are now occupied by settlers.

They're not refugees. They left 70 years ago. If Israel left them back, Israel would devolve into another failed middle eastern state. For people who don't know, UNRWA says Palestinian refugees are the only ones who are defined as eternal. All children, including adopted (!), of Palestinian refugees are Palestinian refugees, and so on to eternity. [1] [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UNRWA#Definition_of_refugee

Palestinian refugees have to stay refugees because they are stateless. Stateless refugees, unless they can find some other citizenship and therefore no longer are just Palestinian - and they often can't, must remain refugees for eternity. Since children normally inherit citizenship, that goes for their children too, until they are something other than Palestinian, nationality-wise.

And they didn't "leave". They were ethnically cleansed.

Re: Spike in short selling in Israeli-company ETF days before Oct 7 [pdf]

#76

Post by giraffe_lady »

xdennis wrote: post #63
rowanseymour wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's not like Israel has been, or is, a friend of Gaza. So when Gaza was planning the attack This is an odd way to decribe things considering Gaza is not a state. Its population is mostly refugees who were ethnically cleansed from nearby villages and functionally it operates as a concentration camp preventing those people from trying to return to those villages which are now occupied by settlers.

They're not refugees. They left 70 years ago. If Israel left them back, Israel would devolve into another failed middle eastern state. For people who don't know, UNRWA says Palestinian refugees are the only ones who are defined as eternal. All children, including adopted (!), of Palestinian refugees are Palestinian refugees, and so on to eternity. [1] [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UNRWA#Definition_of_refugee

> If Israel left them back, Israel would devolve into another failed middle eastern state.

If I let the man out of the cage in my attic my home life is going to be a lot worse. He's still a caged man though.

Re: Spike in short selling in Israeli-company ETF days before Oct 7 [pdf]

#77

Post by weregiraffe »

rowanseymour wrote: post #67
xdennis wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're not refugees. They left 70 years ago. If Israel left them back, Israel would devolve into another failed middle eastern state. For people who don't know, UNRWA says Palestinian refugees are the only ones who are defined as eternal. All children, including adopted (!), of Palestinian refugees are Palestinian refugees, and so on to eternity. [1] [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UNRWA#Definition_of_refugee

> Israel would devolve into another failed middle eastern state. Ignoring the obvious racism here, in what sense is Israel a successful middle eastern state? It regularly attacks its neighbouring countries. It keeps 2.3 million people in a ghetto and millions others in bantustans in the West Bank. It's huge source of instability in that region and is dependent diplomatically, economically and militarily on the US.

> It regularly attacks its neighbouring countries.

That's a problem for neighbouring countries, not Israel. USA also regularly attacks... whoever she wishes, really.

> It keeps 2.3 million people in a ghetto and millions others in bantustans in the West Bank

Also not Israel's problem.

>It's huge source of instability in that region

Islamic fundamentalism is a huge source of instability in that region.

> It's huge source of instability in that region and is dependent diplomatically, economically and militarily on the US.

Your ignorance is amazing.

Re: Spike in short selling in Israeli-company ETF days before Oct 7 [pdf]

#78

Post by Invictus0 »

H8crilA wrote: post #10
Invictus0 wrote: post #4

From what I've read, even Hamas' own leaders were unaware of the Oct 7 attack planning. Maybe the Israeli equivalent of the SEC can figure out who placed these trades.

Egyptian intelligence knew about it and warned. Moreover there were detailed plans known already about a year earlier: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/30/world/middleeast/israel-h... This is kind of similar, but smaller in scale, to how Ukraine was surprised that there was actually a push on Kyiv from the north with an attempt at decapitating the state. It's one thing to have the intelligence at hand, it's another to…

First time I'm hearing about this. What an incredible failure from the Israelis.

Re: Spike in short selling in Israeli-company ETF days before Oct 7 [pdf]

#79

Post by tguvot »

sudosysgen wrote: post #75
xdennis wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're not refugees. They left 70 years ago. If Israel left them back, Israel would devolve into another failed middle eastern state. For people who don't know, UNRWA says Palestinian refugees are the only ones who are defined as eternal. All children, including adopted (!), of Palestinian refugees are Palestinian refugees, and so on to eternity. [1] [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UNRWA#Definition_of_refugee

Palestinian refugees have to stay refugees because they are stateless. Stateless refugees, unless they can find some other citizenship and therefore no longer are just Palestinian - and they often can't, must remain refugees for eternity. Since children normally inherit citizenship, that goes for their children too, until they are something other than Palestinian, nationality-wise. And they didn't "leave". They were…

per unrwa, palestinians that have citizenship of whatever other country still remain listed as refugees.

Re: Spike in short selling in Israeli-company ETF days before Oct 7 [pdf]

#80

Post by rokkitmensch »

sudosysgen wrote: post #73
nolongerthere wrote: post #50

Considering Qatar (and thus by proxy Hamas and Iran) has access to global markets it’s not clear to me why the assumption here is that these moves came from Israeli leadership and not the more likely source… those planning the slaughter who also wanted to benefit economically and not just in blood.

There is currently no evidence that Iran or Qatar knew about the timing of the attacks, and the US's position is that they don't believe it was known. See : https://www.reuters.com/world/initial-us-intelligence-shows-... > Initial U.S. intelligence reports show that some Iranian leaders were surprised by the Islamist group's unprecedented attack from Gaza, U.S. sources said on Wednesday. > A U.S. official said, howev…

Homie we would have nary a fart of evidence. OSINT is a 5EYES figment to convince us proles it's even remotely feasible to know what is transpiring.
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