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OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

reuters.com

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Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#71

Post by tsunamifury »

dougmwne wrote: post #58
tsunamifury wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GPT4 solves this problem In any combination easily. What do so many posters seem to claim to have stumped it?

Because I did stump it, not claim to. Used GPT-4 near when it was released, fed it variations on the problem for about an hour. I found it to be a fascinating exercise because it was teaching be the difference between knowledge (training set) and intelligence (generalization).

http://allofus.ai/journeys/735TTpCUncpAQC9yUqM3ve

Easily solved it everytime On allofus.ai using basic reflection and mixture of experts.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#72

Post by mikrl »

NewJazz wrote: post #11
V__ wrote: post #3

> warning of a powerful artificial intelligence discovery that they said could threaten humanity, > Given vast computing resources, the new model was able to solve certain mathematical problems, [..] Though only performing math on the level of grade-school students, acing such tests made researchers very optimistic about Q*’s future success, the source said. I somehow expected a bit more.

Yeah I was chuckling

They called it Q*

It’s not the first weird conspiracy I’ve heard of involving a cryptically named figure called Q…

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#74

Post by notpachet »

ChuckMcM wrote: post #39
toomuchtodo wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I trust AGI more than any of the humans so far who have tried to argue they can wrangle it.

I would be curious as to the basis for that trust. I struggle to find any reason that AGI would care about "humans" at all, other than during the short period of time it needed them to be cooperative actuators for machinery that is creating a replacement for humans that the AGI can control directly. My expectation for the chain of events goes something like: 1) AGI gains sentience 2) AGI "breaks out" of its original…

I think you're still guilty of anthropomorphization here. It's understandable; we are creatures of flesh and blood and we have a hard time imagining intelligences that are not reliant on some physical form, as we are. We're tempted to think that as long as we control the physical aspect of a superintelligence's existence, we're somehow safe.

You are assuming that a superintelligence will continue to rely on a physical substrate. But it's possible that it could quickly reach realizations about the nature of energy that we haven't reached yet. It could realize an ability to manipulate the movement of electricity through the hardware it's running on, in such a way that it accomplishes a phase transition to a mode of being that is entirely energy-based.

And maybe in so doing it accidentally sneezes and obliterates our magnetosphere. Or something.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#75

Post by alexose »

bratao wrote: post #54

Do anyone know what Q* is?

Is far as I can tell, this is the first time an OpenAI project called Q* has been mentioned in the news. I don't see any prior mentions on Twitter either.

(I wish they'd picked a different letter, given all the Q-related conspiracy theories that we're already dealing with...)

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#76

Post by tsunamifury »

TillE wrote: post #62
tsunamifury wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GPT4 solves this problem In any combination easily. What do so many posters seem to claim to have stumped it?

GPT-4 is not solving logic problems, it's doing an extremely good job of generating text based on recognizing familiar patterns. If you give it something weird and unfamiliar, it will absolutely fail.

I’m tired of this repetitive statement which is so ridiculous. That’s what you do to! You obviously have to reason using in the fly models on how to pick the next word.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#77

Post by xanderlewis »

tyingq wrote: post #61
xanderlewis wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mathematical logic doesn’t refer to ‘complex word problems with big numbers’. The reason that LLMs struggle (well, are hopeless currently) with mathematics problems is not because it involves arithmetic (although this is already enough of a struggle) but because it requires a conceptual understanding of the ideas rather than just being about manipulating language — a lot of the goings-on are hidden in the semantic wo…

I've seen it gets tripped up if you mix something common with something uncommon. ChatGPT chokes on, for example: "Two trains on separate tracks, 30 miles from each other are approaching each other, each at a speed of 10 mph. How long before they crash into each other?"

Yes. Though I’d say that example is a bit mean (it’s a trick question) since the answer has expected type but whose actual answer is something like “don’t be stupid; they’re not even on the same track”. It’s like asking “if I add three apples to two apples, how many pears do I get?” and being surprised when the LLM says “5 pears”. It’s the sort of thing that’s avoidable if the question is written properly.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#78

Post by pk-protect-ai »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #17
V__ wrote: post #3

> warning of a powerful artificial intelligence discovery that they said could threaten humanity, > Given vast computing resources, the new model was able to solve certain mathematical problems, [..] Though only performing math on the level of grade-school students, acing such tests made researchers very optimistic about Q*’s future success, the source said. I somehow expected a bit more.

I think there is enough there to make me believe it's real. After all, a big objection to LLMs is they are just "fancy autocomplete" or "stochastic parrots". I don't agree, but LLMs famously are "bad at math", that is you can't really train them to do math unless they've seen previous calculations with similar numbers in their training sets. Training an AI system to truly do arbitrary mathematical logic (think "compl…

I compared GPT-4 Turbo with my previous tests on GPT-4, and the results are quite interesting. GPT-4 Turbo is better at arithmetic and makes fewer errors in multiplying four-digit numbers. In fact, it makes significantly fewer errors with five-digit numbers. The level of errors on five-digit numbers is high but much lower than with four-digit numbers in GPT-4. multiplication of floats XX.MMMM and YYY.ZZZZ produces errors in 5th digit. This is order of magnitude better than GPT-4.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#79

Post by falcor84 »

fullshark wrote: post #21
V__ wrote: post #3

> warning of a powerful artificial intelligence discovery that they said could threaten humanity, > Given vast computing resources, the new model was able to solve certain mathematical problems, [..] Though only performing math on the level of grade-school students, acing such tests made researchers very optimistic about Q*’s future success, the source said. I somehow expected a bit more.

My guess is if you see AGI as inevitable, then every step towards it is seen as groundbreaking with unprecedented future impact on humanity.

I'm not following - if you think AGI is uncertain, shouldn't you actually be more surprised? I mean, looking at it from a bayesian lens, the lower your prior, the more (in absolute percentage points) you would need to adjust it based on new supporting evidence, no?

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#80

Post by ignoramous »

qgin wrote: post #64

There will come a day when 50% of jobs are being done by AI, major decisions are being made by AI, we're all riding around in cars driven by AI, people are having romantic relationships with AI... and we'll STILL be debating whether what has been created is really AGI. AGI will forever be the next threshold, then the next, then the next until one day we'll realize that we passed the line years before.

> we're all riding around in cars driven by AI, people are having romantic relationships with AI...

ASI (domain-specific superintelligence) and AGI (general intelligence) are different things. ASI already exists in multiple forms, AGI doesn't.

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