Has anyone here heard of "Numerical Forecasting" models for weather? I heard they "work so well".
Does GraphCast come close to them?
GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting
71–80 of 310 posts
Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting
#72I live in an area which regularly has a climate differently then forecasted: often less rain and more sunny. Would be great if I can connect my local weather station (and/or its history) to some model and have more accurate forecasts.
There are models which take as input both global forecasts and local ones, and which then can transpose a global forecast into a local one.
National weather institutions sometimes do this, since they don't have the resources to run a massive supercomputer model.
Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting
#73Earlier quoted context omitted.
Because "iterative refinement" is sort of wrong. It's not a refinement and it's not iterative. It's an entirely different model to physical simulation which works entirely differently and the speed up is order of magnitude. Building a statistical model to approximate a physical process isn't a new idea for sure.. there are literally dozens of them for weather.. the idea itself isn't really even iterative, it's the sa…
It is iterative when you look at the scope of "humans trying to solve things over time".
lol, touche.
Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting
#74> GraphCast makes forecasts at the high resolution of 0.25 degrees longitude/latitude (28km x 28km at the equator). Any way to run this at even higher resolution, like 1 km? Could this resolve terrain forced effects like lenticular clouds on mountain tops?
One big problem is input weather data. It's resolution is poor.
Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting
#75To call this impressive is an understatement. Using a single GPU, outperforms models that run on the world's largest super computers. Completely open sourced - not just model weights. And fairly simple training / input data. > ... with the current version being the largest we can practically fit under current engineering constraints, but which have potential to scale much further in the future with greater compute re…
[deleted]
Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting
#76I have far more respect for the AI team at DeepMind even thou they may be less popular than say OpenAI or "Grok". Why? Other AI studios seem to work on gimmicks while DeepMind seems to work on genuinely useful AI applications [0]. Thanks for the good work! [0] Not to say that Chat GPT & Midjourney are not useful, I just find DeepMinds quality of research more interesting.
[deleted]
Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting
#77What's the difference between a "Graph Neural Network" and a deep neural network?
Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting
#78[deleted]
Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting
#79Are there any experts around that can chime in on the possible impacts of this technology if widely adopted?
Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting
#80Does anybody know if its possible to initialize the model using GFS initial conditions used for the GFS HRES model? If so, where can I find this file and how can I use it? Any help would be greatly appreciated!