You could have a fund based on representatives called the 435 Index.
Trading bot that buys stocks bought by politicians is up 20% since May 2022
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Re: Trading bot that buys stocks bought by politicians is up 20% since May 2022
#72I’ve looked into this- basically when the congress member purchases or sell stock they have a month or so before they have to report it. It makes live trading impossible. But it is interesting to go back and see who knew what , when.
Really ought to be the other way around - they have to declare purchases a month in advance.
Re: Trading bot that buys stocks bought by politicians is up 20% since May 2022
#73It's hard to find a calculator/data source that takes dividends into account, but it looks like if you bought an S&P500 index fund in May 2022 you'd be up around 18% depending on which day you purchased. So not very dramatic IMO
A buying strategy that can compete with index funds is pretty interesting, isn't it?
Only if it has uncorrelated returns and/or lower volatility than the index strategy.
Buying stocks at random has the same average return as buying the index, but has higher volatility and highly correlated returns. Buying at random doesn't "compete" with index funds.
Re: Trading bot that buys stocks bought by politicians is up 20% since May 2022
#74Better headline: Algorithm discovers deep corruption in Politics.
Algorithm discovers stock market has volatility and you can cherry pick returns based on historical dates pretty easily
Re: Trading bot that buys stocks bought by politicians is up 20% since May 2022
#75Earlier quoted context omitted.
The point is not if the politicians did better than they would have with another investing approach. It's a standard conflict of interest: the appearance of insider trading is corrosive because others see it and figure it's "how the game is played." So they need to do the same to keep up.
Are you saying they shouldn't be allowed to buy stock at all? Because you could cherry-pick any period of time to highlight that they have outperformed the market.
You could, but I'm positive that statisticians much smarter than me have devised a test tunable to any sensitivity one desires. The real question is, "What's our threshold of sensitivity, and what are the FPR and FNRs are we willing to endure?"
Re: Trading bot that buys stocks bought by politicians is up 20% since May 2022
#76@dang, can you change the display for (threads.net) to be like twitter, where it shows the username to the right of the post title? For example, threads.net/@quiverquantitative
Typing "@dang" does not actually do anything. Write to the mods using the Contact email at the bottom of the page.
I thought I saw dang comment once that they wrote a script to find those mentions.
Re: Trading bot that buys stocks bought by politicians is up 20% since May 2022
#77Earlier quoted context omitted.
The point is not if the politicians did better than they would have with another investing approach. It's a standard conflict of interest: the appearance of insider trading is corrosive because others see it and figure it's "how the game is played." So they need to do the same to keep up.
Are you saying they shouldn't be allowed to buy stock at all? Because you could cherry-pick any period of time to highlight that they have outperformed the market.
Yeah probably not individually.
They could put investment money in like an independent index fund maybe...? Although honestly there should probably be a "Congressional Investment Fund" that they have to put any stock investment money into that invests equally across all publicly traded companies or something.
Re: Trading bot that buys stocks bought by politicians is up 20% since May 2022
#78Earlier quoted context omitted.
The point is not if the politicians did better than they would have with another investing approach. It's a standard conflict of interest: the appearance of insider trading is corrosive because others see it and figure it's "how the game is played." So they need to do the same to keep up.
Are you saying they shouldn't be allowed to buy stock at all? Because you could cherry-pick any period of time to highlight that they have outperformed the market.
That would be a very reasonable restriction. Anyone who works on Wall Street can only own broad index mutual funds.
Re: Trading bot that buys stocks bought by politicians is up 20% since May 2022
#79It's hard to find a calculator/data source that takes dividends into account, but it looks like if you bought an S&P500 index fund in May 2022 you'd be up around 18% depending on which day you purchased. So not very dramatic IMO
The point is not if the politicians did better than they would have with another investing approach. It's a standard conflict of interest: the appearance of insider trading is corrosive because others see it and figure it's "how the game is played." So they need to do the same to keep up.
If the 'other investing approach' is a broad market index like the S&P 500, where is the 'appearance if insider trading'?
GP's point is that they could be almost entirely in the S&P500, with some minor innocuous deviation (tracking error, frankly!) and it would look the same. So this isn't really suspicious at all.
Sure it's a US-focussed index, but isn't that you want from your politicians? (Outsider perspective here fwiw.) It'd be worse if they were some foreign country's politicians where the markets at home had done poorly and they'd basically tracked much better performing US index.
Re: Trading bot that buys stocks bought by politicians is up 20% since May 2022
#80It's hard to find a calculator/data source that takes dividends into account, but it looks like if you bought an S&P500 index fund in May 2022 you'd be up around 18% depending on which day you purchased. So not very dramatic IMO
Looks like VFINX returned 8.8% since 2022-05-01. How did you get to 18%? https://totalrealreturns.com/n/VFINX,VBMFX,USDOLLAR?start=20...
I cherrypicked a day in May 2022 from here that gave something like 14% growth (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC?p=%5EGSPC), and IIRC the dividends is like 2% annually
Edit: tweaking your link to May 11 gets it up to 14.8%, and I'm not sure if it's just using the opening price or the lowest of the day