Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Trying to make sense of why Otis exploded en route to Acapulco

theeyewall.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

71–80 of 133 posts

Re: Trying to make sense of why Otis exploded en route to Acapulco

#71

Post by mrintegrity »

Podgajski wrote: post #15
Applejinx wrote: post #2

For a weather forecaster this is a really strange take. Anybody who understands what the big words 'climate change' mean, could have predicted this. HAVE predicted this. I personally have predicted this and I'm not even a weather forecaster, I just know what chaos theory is. Adding energy to the system produces a wider range of possible outcomes. This is absolutely one of the possible outcomes. A few degrees less war…

It is strange, but it’s not. My friends keep asking me why it seems like the weather predictions are always off lately. I tell them because they have no climate models for the state of the climate that we’re living in right now. They’re all based on past climate. so this weather forecaster is just doing the same thing, he’s trying to predict future events on past performance. What they need to do is start looking rig…

I also noticed that but have assumed it's because of a change in reporting methods. It's hard to find a forecast that includes the confidence level of a prediction. The bbc weather forecast used to show the % chance of rain for example. Now most apps and websites just show a grey cloud.

Re: Trying to make sense of why Otis exploded en route to Acapulco

#73

Post by ars »

PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #9
Applejinx wrote: post #2

For a weather forecaster this is a really strange take. Anybody who understands what the big words 'climate change' mean, could have predicted this. HAVE predicted this. I personally have predicted this and I'm not even a weather forecaster, I just know what chaos theory is. Adding energy to the system produces a wider range of possible outcomes. This is absolutely one of the possible outcomes. A few degrees less war…

> Adding energy to the system Best estimates I've found to date: [ EDIT: 0.6-0.8 ] * Petawatts * of extra energy circulating in the atmosphere as a result of anthropogenic changes to radiative forcing. EDIT: For the people downvoting this because "watts are units of power not energy", please read the Wikipedia page on radiative forcing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiative_forcing For the people downvoting because…

> 0.6-0.8 * Petawatts * of extra energy circulating

What is that as a percentage of total energy circulating? The number by itself is meaningless - the Earth is large, it has a lot of energy, that's not news.

Re: Trying to make sense of why Otis exploded en route to Acapulco

#74

Post by phreeza »

zootboy wrote: post #51

This headline could really use the word "hurricane" in it. I had no idea what Otis or Acapulco were, and my initial guess was wildly off: some sort of space probe experienced a catastrophic failure on the way to an asteroid.

I somehow thought it was an obscure motorcycle brand, that broke down on a long road trip in Mexico.

Re: Trying to make sense of why Otis exploded en route to Acapulco

#75

Post by hnburnsy »

The first NHC advisory mentioning the rapid intensification into a Cat 4...

---

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/ep18/ep182023.discus.0...

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Otis Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

Otis has undergone very rapid intensification today. An eye became apparent on visible satellite images only a few hours ago, embedded in very deep convection. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft penetrated the eye around 1900 UTC and again around 2000 UTC, and found that the maximum sustained winds had increased to near 110 kt over a very small area near the center, while the central pressure remarkably dropped around 10 mb from the first to the second center fix. The intensity of Otis is well above the Dvorak satellite estimates, and again underscores the value of aerial reconnaissance in monitoring hurricanes.

Otis should remain in an atmospheric and oceanic environment that will be conducive for further strengthening later today and tonight. Vertical wind shear should not be too strong, with SSTs near 30 deg C. Based on the observed changes, the short-term official intensity forecast remains above the model guidance. The system is now forecast to be at extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane status by the time it reaches the coast of southern Mexico late tonight or tomorrow morning. After landfall, the system should weaken rapidly over the mountainous terrain of Mexico.

The hurricane continues on about the same heading, or around 330/7 kt. For the next couple of days, Otis should move between a mid-level ridge to the east and northeast and a trough to its northwest. The official track forecast is about the same as the previous one and is a little faster than the dynamical consensus. On this track, the center of the hurricane will make landfall within the hurricane warning area late tonight or early Wednesday.

Re: Trying to make sense of why Otis exploded en route to Acapulco

#76

Post by wyatt_dolores »

zootboy wrote: post #51

This headline could really use the word "hurricane" in it. I had no idea what Otis or Acapulco were, and my initial guess was wildly off: some sort of space probe experienced a catastrophic failure on the way to an asteroid.

First thought: Otis the dog was improperly put into the some kind of vacuum hold on a flight to Acapulco and burst wide open.

Re: Trying to make sense of why Otis exploded en route to Acapulco

#77

Post by dvh »

zootboy wrote: post #51

This headline could really use the word "hurricane" in it. I had no idea what Otis or Acapulco were, and my initial guess was wildly off: some sort of space probe experienced a catastrophic failure on the way to an asteroid.

This tells me you don't know Jean-Paul Belmondo's movie The Man from Acapulco. Seriously watch that movie.

Re: Trying to make sense of why Otis exploded en route to Acapulco

#78

Post by midasuni »

zootboy wrote: post #51

This headline could really use the word "hurricane" in it. I had no idea what Otis or Acapulco were, and my initial guess was wildly off: some sort of space probe experienced a catastrophic failure on the way to an asteroid.

I was thinking elevators

Re: Trying to make sense of why Otis exploded en route to Acapulco

#80

Post by rob74 »

zootboy wrote: post #51

This headline could really use the word "hurricane" in it. I had no idea what Otis or Acapulco were, and my initial guess was wildly off: some sort of space probe experienced a catastrophic failure on the way to an asteroid.

I know what Acapulco is, but when reading "Otis" I first think of elevators, which very rarely explode...
Post reply on HN