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Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

asia.nikkei.com

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Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#71

Post by bamboozled »

epolanski wrote: post #13
bamboozled wrote: post #3

Meanwhile in Japan I can't buy a 4WD mini van that's fully electric, one of the most common petrol car form factors in Japan. They can't even do the basics in their own home market. Good luck Toyota, you will need it.

I think yours is a very blind take. The Japanese auto industry deliberately decided to put the emphasis on hybrid technologies before EVs. - the overwhelming amount of the world does not and will not have infrastructure to support that many EVs for quite some time. Energy-starved countries such as most of Europe bar some like Scotland or Norway are already unable to cope with the current electricity demand. Japan its…

Sorry what is blind about my take? I'm honestly interested. I don't see much in your response that proves my take is blind.

The article is titled:

Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD, is this not an omission they slept on the starting line? Then:

It is also jointly developing EV versions of mini commercial vehicles with Suzuki Motor and subsidiary Daihatsu Motor.

Which is exactly the type of car I've been interested in buying, so I guess they too see the gap in the market now, but have done little too fill it. BYD will likely enter this space before Toyota. The only thing that will stop that is protectionism, which Japan is good at, so it might work out for Toyota.

The only one who is blind here is Toyota, they fucked up good and now they have to "chase" the competition.

Also the power grid isn't Toyota's problem, it's the Japanese governments problem, and Toyota and all the other major Japanese car manufacturers should've had the foresight to work with the government to address this issue 5-10 years ago, not now. Now it's too late. They will likely be destroyed by Tesla and BYD because of their unwillingness to adapt.

Toyota are dinosaurs now and the fact the government didn't work to update the grid means the entire Japanese economy will be at the mercy of oil prices, or will lose crazy amounts of money subsidizing the prices because the price of oil will only continue to increase as economies of scale start to shift towards EVs and away from ICE and petroleum.

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#72

Post by Tade0 »

epolanski wrote: post #34
Tade0 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're completely ignoring China in this picture, which is by far the largest market for cars and where EVs already reached 22% market share last year. There's already a price war going on there, so the question isn't how long western manufacturers will be able to produce combustion cars, but will they survive the deluge of competitively priced Chinese EVs. The solar panel market did not and is now almost fully contr…

Just because someone else has a different take on the market it doesn't mean that he's wrong. I didn't ignore China, or US, I stated that on average most cars in the world sold globally will still be ICE-powered for a long time to come due to electricity constraints (and quite high EV costs that aren't gonna fall anytime soon). This is especially true about Japan which the comment was speaking of. > The solar panel m…

> I stated that on average most cars in the world sold globally will still be ICE-powered for a long time to come due to electricity constraints

China isn't pushing for EVs because they care about the planet or whatnot, but because it's much easier for them to increase electricity production than import more oil.

In 2022 they added around 87GW worth of solar panels, the annual electricity production of which would be enough to charge 36mln EVs.

And that's just solar, which may or may not be utilized fully. The additions in coal alone are enough to power a 100% EV fleet of new cars.

> China controls large parts of manufacturing globally regardless of sector, that's true for advanced electronics

That wasn't the case for solar panels as recently as in 2003, when it was Germany and Japan that combined controlled most of the market - both in sales and production capacity:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Largest_Producers_of_So...

Cars will follow the same trajectory unless western manufacturers get their heads out of their asses and do something. So far only Tesla seems to be.

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#73

Post by Tade0 »

epolanski wrote: post #36
KingOfCoders wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is Germany "unable to cope with the current electricity demand"? People use solar power to power their EVs here (We have solar power but no car).

That's a cherry picked stat, isn't it? Your country is also increasing its coal output and the output of energy produced by coal in double digits and out wiping villages such as Lutzerah to create some of the biggest coal mines in the world. Yes, you are energy starved too. Also, how there's no EVs? From all WV brands including Skoda to luxury makers from Mercedes to Porsche, *all* of your automakers have multiple EV…

> Your country is also increasing its coal output and the output of energy produced by coal in double digits

That's only true if you look at the data from 2020 onwards. In reality coal usage for electricity, regardless of type, peaked years ago and never recovered:

https://www.cleanenergywire.org/sites/default/files/styles/g...

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#74

Post by oblio »

niclo wrote: post #70
oblio wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> ps: Asian phone manufacturers is much different from China phone manufacturers given that in EU all put together they barely reach Samsung market share. Huawei was taking off like a rocket in Europe before the US kneecapped them. > Currently chinese cars are perceived as super low quality and the only strong selling point they have is the price, as they had when Huawei, Xiaomi and other brands entered the smartphon…

Yes of course, but today's japanese and korean cars are well renowned and considered top in class, what about Xiaomi and other chinese smartphone brands ? Severely lagging behind Apple and Samsung and price-to-quality ratio it's kinda meh, completely different evolution.

Huawei was making top-notch hardware before the US basically destroyed their business, for better or for worse.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5zvFXmSGKY

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#75

Post by bamboozled »

theshrike79 wrote: post #37
epolanski wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think yours is a very blind take. The Japanese auto industry deliberately decided to put the emphasis on hybrid technologies before EVs. - the overwhelming amount of the world does not and will not have infrastructure to support that many EVs for quite some time. Energy-starved countries such as most of Europe bar some like Scotland or Norway are already unable to cope with the current electricity demand. Japan its…

Not just a weird mix of 50/60Hz they also have a single phase grid that's definitely not capable of home-charging EVs. America is pretty bad, but at least you have split-phase.

Weird, because I know people who own EVs and charge them? Do you mean at scale?

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#77

Post by sifar »

AtlasBarfed wrote: post #4
cf141q5325 wrote: post #2

In comparison the drop in sales for Volkswagen EVs following the end of subsidies https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37637715

Ok, look, this isn't complicated. Here's some kind-opinion, kinda-fact points: 1) Tesla is making vehicles with EV drivetrains at cost parity or less than an ICE car (depends on the actual reporting on Tesla's per-car margin accuracy). This number is somewhere around $100/kwhr at the pack level. 2) EV drivetrain cost has been steadily falling at nonlinear rates for a decade, with very much runway. 3) CATL and other b…

>> But if an EV costs 25-40% less than an ICE, and your car company cannot make those vehicles, your car company will cease to exist in short order.

There is not a single EV car that is cheaper than an equivalent ICE car(subsidies don't count). There in lies the rub.

EVs may be cheaper to produce, but the current EV manufacturers seem hell bent on exploiting the customers.

Give me an affordable EV corolla at similar price as the ICE one and I won't blink for any other car.

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#78

Post by theshrike79 »

bamboozled wrote: post #75
theshrike79 wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not just a weird mix of 50/60Hz they also have a single phase grid that's definitely not capable of home-charging EVs. America is pretty bad, but at least you have split-phase.

Weird, because I know people who own EVs and charge them? Do you mean at scale?

I can get 11kW of 3-phase power to charge my car from the garage of my Grandma's house, that was built in the late 50's. I could do up to 22kW, but pretty much no EV supports 22kW AC charging (weird patent stuff IIRC).

I can also charge at 2.7kW from a regular Schuko outlet.

The single-phase thing is why electric kettles aren't a thing in the US, you just can't provide enough power for them to be usable. IIRC the maximum for US outlets is around 1.5kW, (most?) European plugs can provide around 2.3-2.7kW.

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#79

Post by tooltalk »

oblio wrote: post #65
niclo wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The EU will probably do the same within max 5 years, European car brands are about to be wiped up if they don't Currently chinese cars are perceived as super low quality and the only strong selling point they have is the price, as they had when Huawei, Xiaomi and other brands entered the smartphone market. If I look at BYD catalogue in the italian website I can see: - the Dolphin starting from about 36k€ when there…

> ps: Asian phone manufacturers is much different from China phone manufacturers given that in EU all put together they barely reach Samsung market share. Huawei was taking off like a rocket in Europe before the US kneecapped them. > Currently chinese cars are perceived as super low quality and the only strong selling point they have is the price, as they had when Huawei, Xiaomi and other brands entered the smartphon…

>> Huawei was taking off like a rocket in Europe before the US kneecapped them. Huawei was taking off mostly in China -- after the CCP forced Samsung out of China after 2013 under Xie's state industrial policy to protect their domestic industry. Samsung's China market share went from 20% to 1% in a span of a few years. (the same can be said for LG Chem's EV battery business in China and Hyundia/Kia's auto business). It's difficulty to say what would have happened in the EU though.
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