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Northern summer was hottest on record by a significant margin

cnn.com

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Re: Northern summer was hottest on record by a significant margin

#71

Post by anigbrowl »

zacharytelschow wrote: post #56
SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/27/world/july-hottest-month-reco... There is a decent amount of confidence that it's an outlier in the last 120,000 years, but you're right, there are no written records that far back. Regardless, do you find it reassuring to know that the world is rapidly changing in a way that's proving to be predictable? We can easily look at that chart and guess what it's going to look like over the ne…

> We can easily look at that chart and guess what it's going to look like over the next 10 years. That's why all the past predictions have been so accurate, right? "But we know more now." We do not. Some intellectual humility by those wanting tyranical control over our lives would be fantastic.

tyranical control over our lives

Stop drinking out of poisoned wells.

Re: Northern summer was hottest on record by a significant margin

#72

Post by vjerancrnjak »

lebuffon wrote: post #34

I just heard about a jump in atmospheric methane that is not understood. The oil/gas industry has made some progress to curtail methane emissions so we don't think it is that gang. I wonder about millions of tons of frozen ancient vegetation in Canada and Russia beginning to rot. ? One idea is that we have hit the true "terminus" point of the past ice age and temperatures will rise rapidly over the next few decades a…

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_methane_emissions

Methane stored in arctic and Siberia is equivalent to 100 of years of todays yearly co2 emissions. Once that starts coming out there’s no point of return for sure.

But the recent increase is probably due to wetlands for now.

Re: Northern summer was hottest on record by a significant margin

#74

Post by sophacles »

phkahler wrote: post #43
lebuffon wrote: post #34

I just heard about a jump in atmospheric methane that is not understood. The oil/gas industry has made some progress to curtail methane emissions so we don't think it is that gang. I wonder about millions of tons of frozen ancient vegetation in Canada and Russia beginning to rot. ? One idea is that we have hit the true "terminus" point of the past ice age and temperatures will rise rapidly over the next few decades a…

>> No one knows the amount of thought I put into this same problem when building train tracks for my son but I had no idea how to solve the problem. My opinion is that it will rise until we reach a tipping point where changes happen that will lead to the next glaciation. IMHO there will be at least a few years where odd things happen and then the modeling folks will say "oh crap this is going to happen". Stalling of…

Changing the speed of a process can dramatically change the outcome. For instance, compare taking an elevator vs jumping out the window.

Re: Northern summer was hottest on record by a significant margin

#75

Post by SketchySeaBeast »

edgyquant wrote: post #57
SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/27/world/july-hottest-month-reco... There is a decent amount of confidence that it's an outlier in the last 120,000 years, but you're right, there are no written records that far back. Regardless, do you find it reassuring to know that the world is rapidly changing in a way that's proving to be predictable? We can easily look at that chart and guess what it's going to look like over the ne…

There is not a “decent amount of confidence” and your CNN link provides no proof that there’s any at all outside of a sentence claiming tree rings and coral mean it may be. There is so much disinformation (from both sides) and fear mongering about this subject that anything not a direct and peer reviewed source should not be taken as any kind of proof of anything.

To portray this as a "both sides" problem is to wildly misunderstand the scientific discourse, or mistake it for the political one.

Re: Northern summer was hottest on record by a significant margin

#76

Post by Roark66 »

vjerancrnjak wrote: post #72
lebuffon wrote: post #34

I just heard about a jump in atmospheric methane that is not understood. The oil/gas industry has made some progress to curtail methane emissions so we don't think it is that gang. I wonder about millions of tons of frozen ancient vegetation in Canada and Russia beginning to rot. ? One idea is that we have hit the true "terminus" point of the past ice age and temperatures will rise rapidly over the next few decades a…

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_methane_emissions Methane stored in arctic and Siberia is equivalent to 100 of years of todays yearly co2 emissions. Once that starts coming out there’s no point of return for sure. But the recent increase is probably due to wetlands for now.

>no point of return

Considering we're talking about an event that happens every ~140k years by definition there will be "a return". Just like there will be future ice ages.

Re: Northern summer was hottest on record by a significant margin

#77

Post by matthewdgreen »

jhoechtl wrote: post #73

How was southern summer? How the world climate in general? Meaningless without perspective.

Heat waves in South America have been ridiculously bad as well, even in winter. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_South_America_heat_wave

Re: Northern summer was hottest on record by a significant margin

#78

Post by SketchySeaBeast »

phkahler wrote: post #45

No doubt the big Canadian Barbecue had a significant effect. Not to say there is no trend, just that this particular year is exceptional for at least on reason.

Sure, but you can look at the rest of the graph and see the clear trend even if you assume 2023 is an exceptional outlier to the exceptional.

Re: Northern summer was hottest on record by a significant margin

#79

Post by amanaplanacanal »

Roark66 wrote: post #76
vjerancrnjak wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_methane_emissions Methane stored in arctic and Siberia is equivalent to 100 of years of todays yearly co2 emissions. Once that starts coming out there’s no point of return for sure. But the recent increase is probably due to wetlands for now.

>no point of return Considering we're talking about an event that happens every ~140k years by definition there will be "a return". Just like there will be future ice ages.

More accurately no return in our lifetimes.

Re: Northern summer was hottest on record by a significant margin

#80

Post by oh_sigh »

derefr wrote: post #47
oh_sigh wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The crazy part about this is that doing something like that is within reach of a number of wealthy individuals. All it takes is one delusional billionaire to throw caution, and a metric buttload of aerosols to the wind and we will find out whether it was a good idea or not.

Putting up a geosynchronous mirrored-foil tarp that shadows the entirety of one of earth's larger deserts would take about the same amount of effort — and be much easier to reverse if it turns out to be a bad idea.

I think the important part here is you could do the aerosol injection secretly. It's pretty much impossible to launch a rocket to geosync orbit without a major government getting involved in your business.
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