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Why Did a Drug Gang Kill 43 Students? Text Messages Hold Clues

nytimes.com

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Re: Why Did a Drug Gang Kill 43 Students? Text Messages Hold Clues

#71

Post by tptacek »

PostOnce wrote: post #68
ipaddr wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The war on drugs in the 80s was focused on Colombia and disrupting Pablo Escobar's coke empire. That was successful but caused production to move closer to Mexico. Everything was stable until the national army took over policing enforcement in 2006 and now you have many 1000x more murders. Some of the murders that are reported as cartel murders can be national army murders. It's a different situation that resolves it…

That tells me what happened, but not why? (I appreciate the detail, though) Why isn't Canada a major narcotics manufacturing center? Why is Colombia? I think the answer is probably complex and involves poverty (meaning switching from lawful occupation to unlawful occupation is a bigger difference than in, say, Canada) and corruption/lawlessness (which may also be consequently tied to the poverty, if corruption is a w…

I'm guessing the climate has a lot to do with it, plus the huge amount of land you need to cultivate enough coca to produce cocaine (Canada having historically a stabler rule of law than Bolivia or Peru), plus the availability of extremely cheap (or, effectively, slave) labor for the cultivation.

If this begs the question "why is Canada more stable than Columbia, Peru, or Bolivia", apart from the fact that those are developing countries, it's worth remembering that the United States was aggressively and violently intervening in their politics into the middle of the 20th century. The same can't be said of The Maple Leaf States.

Re: Why Did a Drug Gang Kill 43 Students? Text Messages Hold Clues

#72

Post by MaxfordAndSons »

justin66 wrote: post #54
hackermailman wrote: post #25

borderland beat covered this and it was a combination of the students stealing a cartel bus used for smuggling and the corrupt local government asking for favors of the cartels they work for to teach a lesson. Btw there is many more terrible things surfacing from mexico these days like everyday plebs having to post identifiers on their vehicles to indicate tax was paid to some cartel then rivals posting videos of kil…

> students stealing a cartel bus used for smuggling That sounds rather irrational of them. Also, not what the NYT reported.

Yea idk, I think that version is an attempt at a (pathetic) post hoc justification for the crime (not saying it was made up by gp, but rather the cartels or their apologists). I had read that they were public municipal buses, which I guess could conceivably be used for smuggling, but would seem like an odd choice, as it doesn't seem like they would have much need to "smuggle" within the the municipality where they already operate with impunity, and driving the buses out of the territory would seem impractical/surreptitious.

Re: Why Did a Drug Gang Kill 43 Students? Text Messages Hold Clues

#73

Post by raincom »

PostOnce wrote: post #68
ipaddr wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The war on drugs in the 80s was focused on Colombia and disrupting Pablo Escobar's coke empire. That was successful but caused production to move closer to Mexico. Everything was stable until the national army took over policing enforcement in 2006 and now you have many 1000x more murders. Some of the murders that are reported as cartel murders can be national army murders. It's a different situation that resolves it…

That tells me what happened, but not why? (I appreciate the detail, though) Why isn't Canada a major narcotics manufacturing center? Why is Colombia? I think the answer is probably complex and involves poverty (meaning switching from lawful occupation to unlawful occupation is a bigger difference than in, say, Canada) and corruption/lawlessness (which may also be consequently tied to the poverty, if corruption is a w…

Well, just as every country in the world wants to export stuff (clothes, commodities, manufactured goods, all the junk available on aliexpress) to the states and other rich countries, so do the cartels and criminal gangs in poor counties. They export to wherever they can make maximum profits. With respect to Cocaine, coca plants need rain forests, so one is left with Colombia, Peru, etc. Opium poppy is grown in Asia; Mexicans started poppy plantations in Sinaloa, they can make heroine.

Mexico is completely avoided when cocaine is sent to Europe from South America. Albanian mafia, Italians, and others use ships to transport cocaine from South America to ports in Europe. Mexican cartels are hardly involved in this. Same logic: why export to UK and other wealthy EU countries? More profit. If they were to sell cocaine to Iranians or Nigerians, they aren't going to make much money. Nigerians are also involved in Cocaine smuggling, because Nigeria is a transit point for some cocaine shipments from South America to Europe. Nigerian gangs get paid commission in cocaine for their help in transiting cocaine through their ports, so Nigerians sell the cocaine they obtain as helpers. That's why Nigerians use mules to send cocaine to India and other countries.

If Mexico were richer than Canada/USA, yes, people would be exporting drugs to Mexico.

Re: Why Did a Drug Gang Kill 43 Students? Text Messages Hold Clues

#74

Post by tptacek »

PostOnce wrote: post #70
foogazi wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why does the war on drugs cause Mexico to fall apart and not Canada? Does Canada produce Marijuana and Cocaine ? Mexico is an agricultural producing country > I don't think Mexico's problems would be solved if drugs disappeared tomorrow. Mexico was already in trouble before the drug trade kicked off Low education, low productivity, limited opportunities How many Canadians jump the wall to wash dishes in the US ?

> Does Canada produce (farmed narcotics) But why don't they produce world-leading levels of illegal synthetic narcotics, purely in search of profit on the American illicit market? If farming isnt viable and drugs are massively profitable, why does Canada not suffer from the allure of American dollars? > Mexico was already in trouble I agree, but does that mean Mexico cannot solve its problems without an American Savi…

Probably because synthetic opioids are mostly made in Asia and imported?

Re: Why Did a Drug Gang Kill 43 Students? Text Messages Hold Clues

#75

Post by hollerith »

PostOnce wrote: post #70
foogazi wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why does the war on drugs cause Mexico to fall apart and not Canada? Does Canada produce Marijuana and Cocaine ? Mexico is an agricultural producing country > I don't think Mexico's problems would be solved if drugs disappeared tomorrow. Mexico was already in trouble before the drug trade kicked off Low education, low productivity, limited opportunities How many Canadians jump the wall to wash dishes in the US ?

> Does Canada produce (farmed narcotics) But why don't they produce world-leading levels of illegal synthetic narcotics, purely in search of profit on the American illicit market? If farming isnt viable and drugs are massively profitable, why does Canada not suffer from the allure of American dollars? > Mexico was already in trouble I agree, but does that mean Mexico cannot solve its problems without an American Savi…

>But why don't they produce world-leading levels of illegal synthetic narcotics, purely in search of profit on the American illicit market? If farming isnt viable and drugs are massively profitable, why does Canada not suffer from the allure of American dollars?

There is less production of narcotics in Canada because Canadian law enforcement is more effective at suppressing it than Mexican law enforcement is.

Re: Why Did a Drug Gang Kill 43 Students? Text Messages Hold Clues

#76

Post by walterbell »

tptacek wrote: post #67
walterbell wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please feel free to start a thread on that topic. This thread is about Mexican cartels. Would appreciate pointers to scenario analysis of potential US-cartel conflicts.

It's nothing personal, I just hate the feeling that I have to interrogate every sentence of someone's writing to find where they're smuggling in the weird fascist stuff. If they're just Orson Scott Card-style LARPing about international conflicts, well, we can do better than this, right? You're more familiar with this blog than I am (this being the second time you've brought it up here). Is there some qualification t…

I'm not a fan of filter bubbles. There are many HN threads where discussion/comments are superior to source article. Often, any weird -ist or -ism source content can be filtered by reason rather than interrogation. My comments cite words, not the person.

> LARPing about international conflicts, well, we can do better than this, right?

Pointers to better material would be greatly appreciated, on the topic of potential US-cartel conflict in the context of US election debates, https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/10/gop-bomb-mexico-fen...

> Republicans suggest everything from terrorist labels to an invasion to decimate drug cartels in Mexico ... U.S. Northern Command assesses that 30 to 35 percent of Mexican territory is ungoverned, giving space for the drug cartels to roam free. Should the U.S. launch military operations in Mexico, a crush of people would find their way to U.S. ports of entry seeking asylum and their claims would be stronger by fleeing an active war zone involving U.S.-labeled terrorists ... There are other complications, such as what the terrorist label would mean for people selling drugs online or shipping them — would a FedEx delivery person be jailed?

Leaving aside election debates on hypothetical conflicts, NYC Central Park is being considered for housing asylum seekers, flowing today into NYC from the US southern border. More and better analysis is needed. https://www.axios.com/2023/08/03/new-york-city-central-park-...

Re: Why Did a Drug Gang Kill 43 Students? Text Messages Hold Clues

#77

Post by MaxfordAndSons »

Something that occurred to me reading this article, is how corrosive the cartels' hold on Mexican society is on market efficiency in small markets - the article mentions half a dozen small businesses in Iguala that are run by cartel members or associates. All those businesses, some of which may be fronts in the classic sense but others are likely semi legit "day jobs" for cartel members, are effectively able to operate outside of a fair market. A square competitor pops up? They can just threaten them or kill them to shut them down. A customer complains about service? Shake them down and kick them out, and black list them at every other connected business in town.

The effect of cartel corruption on the legal and judicial systems is more well documented and fretted about, but I imagine this dimension of corruption has more impact on the everyday lives of Mexican civilians, especially in the small cities and towns like Iguala where the corruption is complete.

Re: Why Did a Drug Gang Kill 43 Students? Text Messages Hold Clues

#78

Post by tptacek »

walterbell wrote: post #76
tptacek wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's nothing personal, I just hate the feeling that I have to interrogate every sentence of someone's writing to find where they're smuggling in the weird fascist stuff. If they're just Orson Scott Card-style LARPing about international conflicts, well, we can do better than this, right? You're more familiar with this blog than I am (this being the second time you've brought it up here). Is there some qualification t…

I'm not a fan of filter bubbles. There are many HN threads where discussion/comments are superior to source article. Often, any weird -ist or -ism source content can be filtered by reason rather than interrogation. My comments cite words, not the person. > LARPing about international conflicts, well, we can do better than this, right? Pointers to better material would be greatly appreciated, on the topic of potential…

I'm not a fan of filter bubbles either, as the term is normally defined, but I'm comfortable with the idea that there are limits to the things you can believe and still be taken seriously. If you non-ironically believe that the Earth isn't spherical, and that there's an "atmosflat" rather than an "atmosphere", I'm comfortable disqualifying your science takes. So it goes with The International Jew.

I don't have a better source! If this source is actually good, rather than someone, again, doing the thing Orson Scott Card so notoriously did, of fanfic'ing international politics and military conflicts, that'd be a good thing to point out! Is it?

Re: Why Did a Drug Gang Kill 43 Students? Text Messages Hold Clues

#79

Post by spaceman_2020 »

I see reports like these and think that Mexico is a failed narco state.

And yet you see reports of NAFTA trade and the fact that Mexico is now America’s largest trading partner.

Hard to reconcile the two. A state without law and order is also a leading trading partner with tons of complex, large scale manufacturing.

What gives?

Re: Why Did a Drug Gang Kill 43 Students? Text Messages Hold Clues

#80

Post by walterbell »

tptacek wrote: post #78
walterbell wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not a fan of filter bubbles. There are many HN threads where discussion/comments are superior to source article. Often, any weird -ist or -ism source content can be filtered by reason rather than interrogation. My comments cite words, not the person. > LARPing about international conflicts, well, we can do better than this, right? Pointers to better material would be greatly appreciated, on the topic of potential…

I'm not a fan of filter bubbles either, as the term is normally defined, but I'm comfortable with the idea that there are limits to the things you can believe and still be taken seriously. If you non-ironically believe that the Earth isn't spherical, and that there's an "atmosflat" rather than an "atmosphere", I'm comfortable disqualifying your science takes. So it goes with The International Jew. I don't have a bett…

> I'm comfortable disqualifying

Client-side kill switches FTW. Hopefully we will also have browser plugins to combine private ignorelists with webs of transitive (dis)trust.

> If this source is actually good

It's the only source I've found on this specific topic, since I don't follow Republican debates. It's full of typos and rambling, but has motivated me to seek more material on the topic.

As for human prejudice, I defer to Steve Martin in Roxanne, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1nYEH6EDwM

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