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Nvidia announces financial results for second quarter fiscal 2024

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Re: Nvidia announces financial results for second quarter fiscal 2024

#71
post #54
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Biotechs are lottery tickets, not stocks. You're just gambling on binary results.

Stocks are lottery tickets…

Exactly.

Nvidia is just one of many lottery tickets and 8% in one day is hardly volatile in stocks.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for second quarter fiscal 2024

#72

Up more than 10% after hours compared to close yesterday. I really thought NVDA had hit its ceiling at $1+ trillion, apparently not. Really does feel like a huge opportunity for Intel to me. They have the fab capacity to pump out at least reasonably competitive GPUs if they can figure out the software side of things. P/E still above 50 even after the AI craze 9x'd eps this quarter. Still hard for me to see that valua…

Intel doesn't seem to be able to execute. It's not just pumping out GPUs - for AI you need drivers, and the equivilent of CUDA and all the various libraries built on CUDA like cuDNN. They do have OneAPI but it hasn't caught on like CUDA in that space. It's kind of too bad since OneAPI is open and CUDA is not.

I can really see Intel figuring this out. A lot of people on HN talking about Intel as an also-ran just like they spoke about AMD before Zen.

Raptor Lake is at 7nm and incredibly competitive there (~2700 single core on geekbench, taken with a pinch of salt). They’re still planning on being on 1.8nm/18A within 2 years, while at the same time ramping up their GPU efforts (albeit using TSMC for 4nm). Nvidia is very much in the lead, but this is just the beginning.

tldr; I ain’t hear no bell.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for second quarter fiscal 2024

#73
post #25

The good new is that Nvidia's high GPU prices motivate everyone (Intel, AMD, ARM, Google, etc.) to try and tackle the problem by making new chips, making more efficient use of current chips, etc. For all the distributed computing efforts that have existed (prime factorization, SETI@Home, Bitcoin, etc.), I'm surprised there isn't some way for gamers to rent out use of their GPU's when idle. It wouldn't be efficient, b…

With interconnect being the biggest limitation these days I don’t think this would work.

I'm not familiar with all the varied uses of GPUs but it seems like image generation could feasibly be distributed: large upfront download of models, then small inputs of text and settings, and small output of resulting images.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for second quarter fiscal 2024

#74
post #25

The good new is that Nvidia's high GPU prices motivate everyone (Intel, AMD, ARM, Google, etc.) to try and tackle the problem by making new chips, making more efficient use of current chips, etc. For all the distributed computing efforts that have existed (prime factorization, SETI@Home, Bitcoin, etc.), I'm surprised there isn't some way for gamers to rent out use of their GPU's when idle. It wouldn't be efficient, b…

They’re all pretty motivated, they’ve been motivated for years, and almost nothing is happening. This situation isn’t exactly a poster child for the Efficient Markets Hypothesis.

Every year just sounds like “Nvidia’s new consumer GPUs are adding new features, breaking previous performance ceilings, running games at huge resolutions and framerates. Their datacenter cards are completely sold out because they can spin straw into gold, and Nvidia continues to develop new AI and graphics techniques built on their proprietary CUDA framework (that no one else can implement). Meanwhile AMD has finally sorted out raytracing, and their consumer GPUs are… well not as good as Nvidia’s but they’re a better value if you’re looking for a competitor to one of Nvidia’s 60 or 70 line GPUs!”

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for second quarter fiscal 2024

#75

Incredible company. It’s absolutely insane how far ahead they are with the investments they made over a decade ago. So nice to see a “hard” engineering (from silicon to software) SV-founded company getting all this recognition. Especially after what has felt like a decade of SV hype software companies dominating the mainstream financial markets pre-pandemic with a spate of overpriced IPOs or large ad-revenue generati…

Are they so far ahead? AMD GPUs get comparable results as of late on Stable Diffusion. Software and hardware from competitors will catch up, crunching 4/8/16 bit width numbers is no rocket science.

> Software and hardware from competitors will catch up, crunching 4/8/16 bit width numbers is no rocket science.

I made the mistake of buying an A770 from Intel, based on the spec sheet. Hardware is comparable to what Nvidia is selling, for 70% of the price.

It's basically a useless paperweight. The AI software crashes constantly, and when it's not crashing, it performs at half the level of Nvidia's cards.

Turns out that drivers and software compatibility are a big deal, and Intel is way way behind in that arena.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for second quarter fiscal 2024

#76

I miss the small graphics company that used to care about gamers :(

Nvidia is dragging the entire gaming industry forward with ray/path tracing and AI-based resolution and frame scaling. Everyone else (I.e., AMD) is following Nvidia’s lead. In what way has Nvidia “forgotten” gamers with the rise of their datacenter business?

Raytracing isn't a thing no matter how much nvidia wants to push it. The performance penalty is too big for what amounts to something that takes a trained eye to notice. AI-resolution scaling is nice to have on lower end devices but the max resolution people actually use is 4k and I can only think of VR where having more than 4k would be nice to have.

My main gripe is that at 4k resolution, top of the line GPUs shouldn't be using AI frame scaling to get decent fps unless you are taking the raytracing penalty for funsies.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for second quarter fiscal 2024

#77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nvidia is dragging the entire gaming industry forward with ray/path tracing and AI-based resolution and frame scaling. Everyone else (I.e., AMD) is following Nvidia’s lead. In what way has Nvidia “forgotten” gamers with the rise of their datacenter business?

The card prices have gone up pretty significantly and availability has been bad for the last few years, they also have been segmenting their product line in ways where some of the lower tier cards are not very compelling vs previous release cycles. I don't know if that's attributable to them "forgetting about gamers" but it's what people are upset about.

Compare price performance and it isn't so bad, assuming you add in an adjustment for AMD's lack of features.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for second quarter fiscal 2024

#78
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s basically a meme stock now. I don’t think anyone should be surprised by wide swings and irrational pricing going forward into the next few months.

What makes it a meme stock? It's printing money from an industry that is only starting. This isn't crypto nonsense.

(Not sure if it's true), but a meme stock is one whose price is propped up by retail traders, and spreads through social media / word-of-mouth, as memes do.

How we prove it's one is probably another matter.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for second quarter fiscal 2024

#79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Can't they just hire all of nvidia's developers and pay them 5x as much? Lol... Intel is famously stingy when it comes to salaries.

for a trillion dollars though... eventually you have to believe Pat gets fired and replaced by someone who is 100% all in on GPUs if he can't figure this out

Maybe everything changes at $1 trillion, but I definitely see smaller (but public) companies leaving money on the table because it would require cultural change.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for second quarter fiscal 2024

#80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Should have sold a call credit spread instead! For large shareholders, the dividend would still be worthwhile. From what I could find, Jensen has 1.3 million shares, so he'd receive over $200k in dividends this year. You might think that's chump change, but another source lists his salary at just under $1m; another 20% bump in liquid income is nothing to sneeze at.

Should have sold a call credit spread instead! I'll get right on that...after I go look up what that means. :-) I'm but a simple options trader who sells calls to unload stock I didn't want anymore anyway, and the premium is the icing on that cake. Left some money on the table this time, but I otherwise would have just sold the shares outright, and I did make some bank regardless. Gonna be missing that sweet, sweet $…

A call credit spread simply means buying an even more out-of-the-money call along with the one you sold. It would have reduced the premium collected, but the long call would appreciate on sudden moves like today's.
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