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Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

abc.net.au

71–80 of 189 posts

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#71

The alarmist tone of this article inspires zero confidence in the reporting. For example: > Climatologist and weather historian Maximiliano Herrera went so far as to call it [35 C+ temperatures in winter] one of the most "extreme weather events the world has ever seen". Assuming the quote is not taken out of context and Herrera did say it, I'm not sure the facts are on Herrera's side. The world likely saw more extrem…

Anyone who is not a denier like yourself knows dam well he meant "recorded history".

Moreover, there is now evidence that the recent years have been warmer not only than the years with meteorological records but than all the previous one thousand two hundred years, for instance:

"Fennoscandian tree-ring anatomy shows a warmer modern than medieval climate"

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06176-4

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#72

Just for tonga folks. I remember reading this yesterday and they calculated that the effect of tonga only make at best 0.1 degree C increase in temperature. However what human did is 1.x degree C. That is order of magnitude difference => tonga is almost irrelevant. https://e360.yale.edu/digest/summer-2023-extreme-heat-causes edit: previous claimed 2.x is in degree F, here we global citizens use international standard…

The worldwide anomaly in 2023 is about 0.9 degrees C from the mean since 1979, not 2.x. Furthermore, the 2023 anomaly from the last decade mean is about 0.3 degrees C. The 2023 anomaly from 2022 is 0.18 degrees, which is close to what they predicted the Tonga eruption would cause. One of the best ways to fight climate change is to not make up numbers out of thin air. There has to be trust for people to begin to chang…

My fault, USA's fault. Misread that degree F and totally missed the degree C came later.

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#73

Just for tonga folks. I remember reading this yesterday and they calculated that the effect of tonga only make at best 0.1 degree C increase in temperature. However what human did is 1.x degree C. That is order of magnitude difference => tonga is almost irrelevant. https://e360.yale.edu/digest/summer-2023-extreme-heat-causes edit: previous claimed 2.x is in degree F, here we global citizens use international standard…

The worldwide anomaly in 2023 is about 0.9 degrees C from the mean since 1979, not 2.x. Furthermore, the 2023 anomaly from the last decade mean is about 0.3 degrees C. The 2023 anomaly from 2022 is 0.18 degrees, which is close to what they predicted the Tonga eruption would cause. One of the best ways to fight climate change is to not make up numbers out of thin air. There has to be trust for people to begin to chang…

> One of the best ways to fight climate change is to not make up numbers out of thin air

I can tell you one of the best ways to fight climate change is not to spend 0 time reading someone's source to see what's going on with their numbers and accusing them of purposefully exaggerating instead. That's just using the guise of Wikipedia expertise to be lazy and stop a conversation before it starts

From their article, the "2.x" clearly comes from the fahrenheit number given. They likely meant 1.2 degrees C, measured from the preindustrial era.

(and you're clearly willing to speculate based on nothing but your feelings[1], so I'm not sure you have much of a leg to stand on criticizing like that)

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37002288

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#74

Part of this may have been due to the Hunga Tonga eruption which injected an tremendous amount of water vapor into the upper atmosphere https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1685971656198545408 https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/tonga-eruption-blasted-unpr...

I feel like there must be some other influence here, and the Tonga eruption is a good candidate. That's not to say this isn't already exacerbated by existing human-derived climate change, but the way the temperature leaps off the chart starting in April is not like the gradual upward trend we see with climate change. It makes utterly no sense from that perspective. Something external to climate change has to be influ…

There's something called a tipping point, and it can result in exactly that sort of sudden rate of change increase entirely due to a certain threshold being breached.

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#75
My issue the last few years with anything related to the topic of climate change and weather patterns is that it's to me the poster child of where science communication can make or break an issue (even one that is existential like this one). And in this case, it has failed miserably and continues to do so.

I am strongly in favor of moving to renewable sources just because they seem like the obvious next technical evolution (And all the CO2 reduction benefits, for sure). I'm also completely trusting that climatologists are doing their thing and that the models we have only keep getting better. I have nearly zero issues with the science or the scientific process as I understand it.

But can we just admit that communicating about warming the earth by 2 degrees always has, and will always be a major failure in getting through to the population? Whenever I see another article talking about "2 degrees by 2035" or something similar, I roll my eyes now because that is such heavy jargon that is meaningful to such a small amount of people. How can we better communicate exactly what that means on a day to day basis? Or connect that to solutions?

We have to find a better way to communicate this both at the macro level and at the micro level.

At the macro level, even someone like me who is fully onboard with the science and the phenomenon, has a hard time getting worked up about chatter about 2 degrees, 0.9 degrees, and measuring tons of carbon. As humans we just can't process this in a meaningful way.

And at a micro level, I'm also sick of us looking at the weather around us on individual days saying "look at this hot day, climate change" and ignoring other factors. But then when people joke about frigid winters, we are quick to correct them and say that it's still due to climate change (we seem to understand that systems are interrelated, cold fronts, warming water evaporating more and resulting in more snow for example), but in hot weather, we just use the "climate change!" sledgehammer and forget about undersea volcanoes, El Ninos, the intensity of the sun (all small factors but factors nonetheless).

The whole thing to me has long been a failure in public communication of science. And I think that should be given as much attention as all the other technical solutions.

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#76
post #2

The current sea temperature anomaly is extreme. You can see it plotted since 1980 here: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/ The dark black line that diverges in March is this year to date.

it may indeed be unprecedented - but this type of chart could do a better job of showing that. here's what I mean: we know that temperature has been increasing steadily for 140 years. So we expect each year can be higher than the previous one. And in an El Niño year, higher even. This chart shows that happening. What it doesn't show (clearly) is how high this year is vs. the previous year - and, importantly, whether that jump in temperature is the highest ever, or one of the highest ever, or whatever. maybe it is, but this type of chart doesn't highlight that fact because all of the years are jumbled together.

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#77
Do I misunderstand their numbers? It looks like in Buenos Aires historical maximum for Aug is +35 degrees, right? And so far it got only up to 30 degrees?

Not to say the heat is not real ofc. Where I am the summer is super hot, in July it came within less than 1 degree of all time maximum on record for the month, though I don't think it broke the record after all... and this with up to 70% humidity, I nearly passed out walking. I guess almost the limit of my endurance.

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#79

Part of this may have been due to the Hunga Tonga eruption which injected an tremendous amount of water vapor into the upper atmosphere https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1685971656198545408 https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/tonga-eruption-blasted-unpr...

I feel like there must be some other influence here, and the Tonga eruption is a good candidate. That's not to say this isn't already exacerbated by existing human-derived climate change, but the way the temperature leaps off the chart starting in April is not like the gradual upward trend we see with climate change. It makes utterly no sense from that perspective. Something external to climate change has to be influ…

Apparently warming is compounded by the eruption, low sulphur shipping fuel rules, low amounts of Saharan dust and changes by El Niño according to this:

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-low-sulphur-shippin...

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#80

Part of this may have been due to the Hunga Tonga eruption which injected an tremendous amount of water vapor into the upper atmosphere https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1685971656198545408 https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/tonga-eruption-blasted-unpr...

also it's an El Niño year.
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